Category: Articles

Posted on by

NBA Predictions Future Bets | Western Conference | 2025

WesternConfArticle

NBA Predictions – WESTERN CONFERENCE OVER/UNDER WIN TOTALS

OVER 49.5 DALLAS MAVERICKS – Dallas won 50 games a year ago and finished the season 10th in Offensive Efficiency, 13th in DEFF. The Mavs should be better this season with a full season of PJ Washington on the roster after coming over from Charlotte at the trade deadline. With Washington in the lineup the Mavs finished the regular season on a 20-9 run.

Dallas also got great play from Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively at the Center position who combined for an average of 10PPG and 6.9 RPG.

They added depth with Spencer Dinwiddie and Klay Thompson. Both of those players are more than capable of putting up big offensive numbers, especially Klay who has a career average of 19.6PPG and he made 3.5 3-pointers last season, 5th in the NBA.

Let’s not forget, the Mavs have one of the most dynamic backcourts with Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving. Doncic led the league in scoring last season at 33.9PPG and was 2nd in assists at 9.8 per game. Kyrie made 3.0 3-pointers per game last season and hit over 41% from Deep. This is a deep roster and very capable of winning 50+ even if they sustain an injury or two.

UNDER 47.5 MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES – The Grizzlies won just 27-games a year ago but played 73-games without Ja Morant. Morant is back this season but this roster is not good enough to get to 48-wins.

Memphis was 30th in Offensive Efficiency rating, 12th Defensively. The starting lineup looks like Morant, Marcus Smart, Desmond Bane, Jaren Jackson Jr and rookie Zach Edey.

Smart played in just 20-games last season and is clearly not the player he once was after 10 seasons in the league. Desmond Bane is a solid #2 but should see a decline in his usage with Morant back in the lineup. Jaren Jackson Jr has been limited to 63 and 66 games the past two season and clearly has injury concerns.

One big concern for Memphis is their rebounding as they ranked 25th in Rebound Rate a year ago. Will rookie Zach Edey help in that category? Two years ago this team had a much better roster and they won 51-games to finish second in the West, this roster isn’t going to get to 48.

OVER 47.5 PHOENIX SUNS – The Suns have the luxury of having three guys on their roster that can literally go for 40-points on any given night.

Kevin Durant is still a premier scorer in this league and is coming off a 27.1ppg season. Durant remained healthy for most of the season, playing in 75-games. The second option, or first for that matter is Devin Booker who also scored 27.1ppg last year and averaged a career high in assists at 6.9 per game. Bradley Beal played in 53 games last season, shot 43% from beyond the arc and scored 18.2ppg.

If we look at Efficiency ratings this team was 9th in OEFF, 14th in DEFF with the 11th best Efficiency Differential.

The Suns got better in the offseason with the addition of Tyus Jones and they still have depth with Grayson Allen, and Royce O’Neal off the bench.

The Suns were a top 10 team in Rebound Rate and Effective Field goal percentage.  Phoenix won 49 games a year ago and should get to that number again in 2025.

BEST BETS TODAY

NBA BETTING ARTICLES

Posted on by

NBA Prediction | OKC Thunder NBA Champions 2025

OKCThunderarticleimage

ASA NBA Prediction: Oklahoma City Thunder: Champions of the 2024-25 NBA Season +700

The Oklahoma City Thunder, coming off an impressive season, have set the stage for what many are predicting to be their championship year in 2024-25. Here’s why the Thunder are not just contenders but our bet to lift the Larry O’Brien Trophy:

Statistical Dominance in 2023-24:

Net Scoring Margin: The Thunder ranked second only behind the Boston Celtics in Net Scoring Margin with a +7.3-scoring margin. This team could not only score at will but also was suffocating opponents defensively.

Offensive and Defensive Efficiency: Finishing third in offensive efficiency, the Thunder’s system under Coach Mark Daigneault has evolved into a machine with great playmaking, shooting, and dynamic scoring. Their fourth-place finish in defensive efficiency highlights a roster that’s not just about flashy plays but also about stifling defense, with the 3rd best Effective Field Goal Percentage D at 52.7%. The Thunder were also tough to score on in the paint, allowing the 6th fewest points per game in the lane at 46.3ppg.

Home Court Advantage:

Record: A staggering 33-8 at home with an average scoring differential of +12.3 points per game speaks volumes. This Thunder team is in line for another 30+ win season on their home court which is one of the best in the NBA. Oklahoma City was 24-17 SU on the road in the regular season with an average plus/minus of +2.3ppg.

Strategic Additions:

Alex Caruso: Known for his defensive prowess and hustle, Caruso’s addition brings a level of tenacity and versatility that’s invaluable. His impact goes beyond stats, often being the catalyst for momentum shifts with his energy and basketball IQ. Caruso hit 40.8% of his 3-point attempts last season in 71 games for the Bulls while scoring 10.1ppg.

Isaiah Hartenstein: Hartenstein’s arrival addresses depth in the front court, adding size, rebounding, and a new dimension to the Thunder’s offensive sets with his passing out of the post. His fit next to Holmgren could revolutionize their defensive schemes, offering versatility against various offensive looks. Hartenstein averaged 8.3 rebounds per game last season with the Knicks and 1.1 blocks per game.

Core Continuity and Growth:

With Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, and Chet Holmgren returning, the Thunder maintain their core that’s both young and experienced. Gilgeous-Alexander, after narrowly missing the MVP last season, seems poised for a leap, potentially securing the award this year with the added support.

The Oklahoma City Thunder, with their depth, star power, and unparalleled efficiency, are not just poised to make noise in the playoffs; they’re positioned to end the season as NBA Champions. Their journey this year is not just about potential but about realizing it, making 2024-25 the year the Thunder claim their rightful place at the top of the NBA mountain.

NBA BETS DAILY

BETTING ADVICE

Posted on by

New Orleans Saints vs Kansas City Chiefs Preview | MNF | 10-7-24

MNF Saints vs. Chiefs Prediction | Player Prop bets | October 7th 2024

Game Overview: The Kansas City Chiefs, coming off an impressive start with a 4-0 record, are hosting the New Orleans Saints, who stand at 2-2, in a Monday Night Football showdown at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. This game marks a significant intersection of two teams with contrasting fortunes, with the Chiefs defending their Super Bowl title and the Saints looking to break their losing streak against Kansas City.

Team Analysis:

  • Kansas City Chiefs:
    • Record: 4-0, showcasing resilience with all wins by seven points or less.
    • Offense: Led by Patrick Mahomes, who has been pivotal in the Chiefs’ close victories. However, they’ve faced challenges with injuries, notably to wide receiver Rashee Rice, RB’s Edwards-Helaire and Pacheo. Kansas City ranks near league average in most offensive statistical categories.
    • Defense: The Chiefs defense allows just 99 rushing yards per game which is good for 8th best in the NFL. They give up just 3.8 yards per game, 4th best. KC’s defense is 25th in yards per completion at 10.7.
  • New Orleans Saints:
    • Record: 2-2, with recent games decided by narrow margins, indicating competitive but inconsistent play.
    • Offense: Derek Carr and Alvin Kamara lead an offense that ranks well in rushing but struggles more in passing efficiency. New Orleans is 1st in rushing attempts per game, 7th in total rushing yards per game but 18th in rushing yards per attempt.
    • Defense: Stronger against the pass but weaker against the run, which could be tested by Mahomes. New Orleans allows 5.8 yards per play (22nd) and 4.8 yards per rush. They have the 8th best pass defense when it comes to opposing QB’s completion percentage at 62.3%.

Betting Insights:

  • Spread: The Chiefs are favored by 5.5 points.
  • Over/Under: Set at 43

Key Betting Angles:

  • Chiefs’ Home Performance: The Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium has been formidable, with a 33-10 SU record since 2020. This season KC has a pair of wins at home over Baltimore by 7-points and Cincinnati by 1pt.
  • Saints’ Road Strategy: The Saints are coming off a last second road loss to the Falcons 24-26 but do own a road win in Dallas 44-19. With QB Derek Carr under center, the Saints are 5-6 SU on the road, 5-5-1 ATS.
  • Player Prop Bet: Kansas City Chiefs kicker Harrison Butker Over 1.5 made field goals. Butker has made 2 or more in every game this season and is averaging 2.33 per game. He is 88.9% on field goals this season with his only miss coming from 65 yards. Last season Butker was 33 of 35 on the year or 94.3%. He has been Over this number in 7 of his last eight games.

Betting Markets: There is more money coming in on the Over in this game which is starting to influence the Books and drive this total up. 43 is a key number so we’re not sure if this moves higher than that. Betting markets are slightly favoring the Saints with more money and tickets on New Orleans which has moved the number from the opening number of KC -6.5 to the current line of -5.5.

BEST PICKS TODAY

BETTING PREVIEWS

Posted on by

Dallas Cowboys vs Pittsburgh Steelers Prediction | Oct 6th 2024

Cowboys vs Steelers Preview – Player Props

Game Preview:

  • Date: October 6, 2024
  • Time: 8:20 PM ET
  • Location: Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

Team Analysis:

  • Dallas Cowboys (2-2): Coming off a narrow victory against the New York Giants, the Cowboys are looking to solidify their standing in the NFC East. However, they face significant challenges with key defensive players out, including Micah Parsons and Demarcus Lawrence. This could severely hamper their ability to pressure Justin Fields, making their pass defense particularly vulnerable.
  • Pittsburgh Steelers (3-1): The Steelers are riding high with Justin Fields at quarterback, showing improvement over last year’s performance. Their defense, traditionally one of the league’s best, is expected to exploit the Cowboys’ weakened defensive line. However, their recent loss against the Colts might be a concern, showing they’re not invulnerable.

Key Betting Insights:

  • Spread: The Steelers are favored by 2.5 points at home, reflecting their solid start and the Cowboys’ injury woes. This line movement from an initial 1.5 points indicates growing confidence in Pittsburgh’s ability to cover against a decimated Cowboys defense.
  • Over/Under: Set at 44 points, the total reflects a game that might not see a high-scoring affair due to strong defensive play, especially from Pittsburgh, but with potential for the Steelers to exploit Dallas’s weakened defense.
  • Moneyline: Steelers are listed at -145 to win outright, showing a clear market preference for Pittsburgh, despite the public leaning towards Dallas in terms of bet volume.
  • Public Betting: Interestingly, while more bets are placed on the Cowboys to cover, the money is heavier on the Steelers, suggesting sharp bettors might see value in Pittsburgh covering or winning outright.

Trends and Predictions:

  • Cowboys: Their offense has been inconsistent, with Dak Prescott performing well but needing support from a struggling rushing game. The absence of key defensive players might force them to rely more on their passing game, which could be a problem versus this Steelers D that ranks 5th in completions allowed and 7th in completion percentage allowed.
  • Steelers: Justin Fields has been a revelation, with his dual-threat capabilities potentially exploiting the Cowboys’ defensive gaps. George Pickens has emerged as a primary receiver with 29 targets this season, and is in a in favorable matchups like this one, against a Cowboys defense that ranks 27 in yards/competion at 11.0.

Betting Picks – Player props:

Look at Justin Fields for over 186.5 passing yards if you believe he’ll have to throw more due to the Cowboys’ defensive adjustments. Fields has thrown fover over this number in his last two games against the Chargers and Colts with 245 and 312 passing yards. He attempted over 30 in both games indicating the coaching staff is gaining confidence in his throwing ability.

Steelers WR George Pickens could be a good bet for over his receiving yards (53.5), given his recent performance and the matchup. George Pickens has emerged as a primary receiver with 29 targets this season, and is in a in favorable matchups, against a Cowboys defense that ranks 27 in yards/competion at 11.0. Pickens is averaging 71 receiving yards per game.

BEST BETS TODAY

FREE PICKS DAILY

Posted on by

Cowboys vs Giants preview | 9-26-24

Cowboys vs Giants preview

NFL Betting Preview: Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants – September 26, 2024

Cowboys vs Giants Preview Game Overview: The Dallas Cowboys, with a record of 1-2, are set to clash with the New York Giants, also standing at 1-2, in what promises to be a pivotal NFC East matchup on Thursday Night Football at MetLife Stadium. This game could be crucial for both teams looking to gain ground in a competitive division.

Betting Lines and Odds:

  • Spread: Cowboys -4.5
  • Moneyline: Cowboys -300, Giants +250
  • Over/Under: 45 points

Key Betting Insights:

  • Trend Analysis: The Cowboys are 1/2 SU/ATS and coming off an upset loss at home to the Ravens. The Giants, despite their record, have shown moments of competitiveness, and stand 1-2 SU/ATS with a win last week in Cleveland.
  • Team Performance:
    • Dallas Cowboys: Dak Prescott has been efficient, throwing for 851 yards with 4 touchdowns and 2 INT’s, but the defense has been a concern, particularly against the run allowing 187.5 rushing YPG. This could play into the Giants’ strategy if they can establish their ground game, which has been a problem as they rush for just 105YPG.
    • New York Giants: The Giants have leaned on Devin Singletary, who’s been effective with 197 rushing yards on 4.1 yards per carry. However, QB Danny Jones and their passing game needs to step up against a Cowboys defense that’s been exploited for 44 and 28-points in two straight games.
  • Player Props:
    • Dak Prescott: In the second meeting of the season last year, Prescott threw for 404 yards with 4 TD’s and one INT in a Cowboys 49-17 win against the Giants. We may take a look at Over Prescott’s total passing yards Over in this game against a Giants defense allowign the 13th most passing YPG in 2024.
    • CeeDee Lamb: As a key option for Prescott with 24 targets this season, Lamb’s receiving yards of 78.5 offer value. Lamb and Prescott got into a heated exchange last week and Prescott may focus on getting Lamb the ball against the Giants. Lamb is averaging 101.1 receiving yards p/game in his last 10 games. The last time he faced NY he was targeted 14 times and finished with 151-receiving yards.
    • Jake Ferguson: Ferguson came back last week after missing a game with an injury and received 11 targets from Prescott with 6 receptions for 95-yards. We would consider hit Over 4.5 recepions made before total yardage.
  • Public Sentiment and Betting Patterns:
    • Early money has slightly favored the Cowboys, but there’s significant interest in the Giants covering the spread, especially with home-field advantage in play.
  • Injury Reports and Team News:
    • Keep an eye on the injury report, particularly for key defensive players on both sides, which could significantly impact the game’s flow and betting lines.

Betting Insights:

  • Spread: The Cowboys opened (-5.5) are 9-1 SU and 7-3 ATS the last ten meetings with the Giants and have won 6 in a row.
  • Over/Under: The total opened at 43.5 points. This series is on a 7-3 Over run with last years two games finishing with 40 total points on this field and 66-points when they met in Dallas. The last 4 meetings in New York have stayed Under.
  • Prop Bets: Focus on Prescott’s passing stats and Lamb’s receiving yards, along with Ferguson’s targets in this one, against this Giants secondary that allowed 10.0-yards per reception a year ago, 9th highest number in the NFL. Maybe also, consider Singletary’s rushing yards or carries if the Giants commit to the running game.

Conclusion: Always consider the latest team news, especially regarding injuries, which could sway the game’s outcome significantly. Remember, while trends and stats guide, football’s unpredictability means no bet is guaranteed. Enjoy the game and bet responsibly!

Get other betting advice here daily from ASAwins.com

ON SALE BETS TODAY

BETTING ARTICLES