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NFC East prediction | Washington Commanders Over 6.5 Wins

NFC EAST Prediction on the Washington Commanders Over 6.5 Wins in 2023

NFL WIN TOTAL – OVER 6.5 WINS WASHINGTON COMMANDERS +110

The number on the Commanders opened at 7.5 wins at several shops (even 8.5 at a few) but was bet down to the current O/U of 6.5 with plus money. We like the value now and will bet Washington Over 6.5 wins and would even consider Over 7.5 wins at plus +175. Washington has decided to start Sam Howell at quarterback after a failed experiment with Taylor Heinicke and Carson Wentz in 2022. The Commanders won 8 games last season with a passing offense that was 21st in the NFL in yards per game and was 28th in passing DVOA. Howell will be an upgrade at that position if he plays as well as he did in the preseason where he was28 of 37, 75% completion rate for 265 yards with 3 TD’s and zero interceptions. Washington allowed just 20.2PPG last season which ranked 8th best in the NFL. The Commanders allowed 5.2 Yards Per Play which was 10th best in the league and were 3rd overall in Yards Per Game allowed at 304.6YPG. Teams had a very tough time sustaining drives against the Commanders as they allowed foes to convert 3rd downs at a 31.90% which was best in the league. Teams had a tough time scoring TD’s in the Red Zone against the Commanders as they finished the 2022 season ranked 9th best in the NFL at 51.92%. Washington relied heavily on their running game with the 4th most rushing attempts in the league at 31.6. They averaged 126.1 rushing yards per game, which was 12th most. Granted, the Commanders play in the very tough NFC East, but they have a great defense, an upgrade at the QB position and should benefit from more fans support this season with Dan Snyder out as owner. Washington faces Arizona, Denver, Buffalo, Philadelphia, Chicago, Atlanta, and the Giants in the first seven weeks of the season and other than Buffalo and Philly they are all very winnable games. Over 6.5 wins for the Washington Commanders in the NFC East prediction.

OTHER BETTING OPTIONS:

  • Terry McLaurin OVER 4.5 RECEIVING TOUCHDOWNS -108 – McLaurin has produced over 3,300 total receiving yards in three combined seasons and is only 1 of ten players to accomplish this impressive feat. His TD production is low considering the yardage, but he has caught 4, 5 and 5 TD’s in his last three seasons. His Red Zone targets have also been low considering his overall usage, but we are betting those change with new QB Sam Howell under center.

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NFC EAST TOTAL WIN BEST BET – Over 8 Washington Football Team

NFC EAST TOTAL WIN BEST BET – Over 8 Washington Football Team

Washington relied heavily on their defense last year which proved to be one of the best in the NFL.  They will be very good on that side of the ball again this season as they didn’t lose a single key player from last year’s defense.  They held 10 of their 16 regular season opponents to 20 points or less but their offense was held to 20 points or less in 10 games which is why this team finished 7-9.  The QB position was in shambles for Washington last season with 4 different QB’s (Smith, Allen, Haskins, and Heinicke) getting the starting nod throughout the year.  Dare we say that this year’s starter, journeyman Ryan Fitzpatrick, is a solid upgrade over last year’s QB situation?  Say what you will but Fitzpatrick was more than solid last year finishing 7th in the league in yards per pass attempt and 5th in completion percentage playing for Miami.  The Fins won 4 of the 5 games he started and his numbers were MUCH better than Tua Tagovailoa who took over for him.  They have solid playmakers at WR including Curtis Samuel who they added in the off-season.  If this team can up their offensive productions just a bit this year, they should have a winning season.  They already have the best defense in the worst division in football.  Washington was the only team in the NFC East with a positive point differential and their YPP differential on the season was dead even.  We feel they are the top team in the division and should be a +.500 team this season.