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AFC North Prediction | Steelers Under 8.5 | 9-4-2024

ASA’s AFC NORTH WIN TOTAL PROJECTION

AFC North Prediction – Pittsburgh Steelers – UNDER 8.5 Wins (-140)

We’re going against the grain a bit here as the Steelers have never finished with a losing record under head coach Mike Tomlin.  We think this is the year that streak ends. 

Truth be told, that run really should have ended last season.  Pittsburgh finished with a 10-7 record a year ago but they ended the season with a negative point differential, they were outgained on the year both YPG and YPP, and had fewer rushing and passing yards than their opponents.  They finished 9-2 in games decided by a TD or less and while they went 5-1 in NFC North play, 4 of those 5 wins they faced back up QB’s vs Cincinnati (both games), Baltimore and Cleveland.  Those successes will be very difficult to duplicate in back to back years.  As will their turnover margin of +11 which was the 3rd best in the NFL last year. 

To say they were fortunate to get to 10 wins is an understatement as their projected win total based on point differential and key stats was under 8.  The Steelers did bring in 2 new signal callers in Russell Wilson and Justin Fields.  The problem is, Wilson is on the downside of his career (13th year) and wasn’t great the last 2 season in Denver while Fields has never lived up to the hype with just a 10-28 record as a starter. 

The defense allowing just 19.7 PPG last season but their YPG (21st) and YPP (23rd) numbers were not in line with their scoring defense so again, we feel they were fortunate on that side of the ball. 

Pittsburgh just happens to have the most difficult schedule in the NFL this season based on opponents expected win totals.  They better get off to a red hot start if they expect to get to 9 wins this season as they back half of their schedule (final 8 games) is brutal.  A fast start might be tough with a new offensive coordinator, new QB, and they play 4 of their first 6 games on the road.  We think an 8 win season for Pittsburgh would be really solid this year and that still lands them under this total .

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NFL free pick | Sept 24th | Steelers vs. Raiders

ASA PLAY ON #475/476 UNDER 43.5 Pittsburgh Steelers at Las Vegas Raiders, Sunday 8:20pm ET

Our model is projecting 40.25 points being scored in this game and we couldn’t agree more with our computers for this NFL free pick. The Steelers offense is near the bottom of every key category including 31st in totally YPG, 29th in yards per play, 31st in rushing YPG, 27th in rushing yards per attempt and 26th in scoring at 16.5PPG. Obviously, their scoring numbers are even exaggerated considering they had 2 defensive scores last week. Take away those 2 defensive TD’s and this offense is averaging 9.5PPG. Las Vegas played a similar team to Pittsburgh in the opener against Denver and they combined for 33 total points. Last week against a highly motivated Bills team they lost 10-38 with Buffalo getting a garbage TD with 5 minutes left or that game stays Under this number. Las Vegas struggled offensively in that game with 13 first downs, 55-rushing yards and 185-passsing yards. In fact, the Raiders offense is just as bad as Pittsburgh’s. they rank 30th in total YPG, 30th in rushing, 31st in yards per rush, 21st in passing yards and are last in the league in scoring at 13.5PPG. Both defenses are better than their numbers to date as both allow over 5.5 yards per play and Over 27PPG but today each team will be facing low level offenses so expect much better showings by each. We like this game Under 43.5 as today’s NFL free pick.  

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