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ASA’s NFC WEST WIN TOTAL PROJECTION

Seattle Seahawks – UNDER 7.5 Wins (+115)

The Seahawks finished last season with a record of 9-8 but they had a negative point differential (-38) and they were outgained by nearly 50 YPG. Based on those stats alone, Seattle should have won only 7 games last season and that’s where we think they land in 2024 (7 or fewer wins). They benefited from a positive turnover margin last season and only won 3 games by more than a TD in 2023 vs the 3 of the worst teams in the NFL, Carolina (2 wins last season), Arizona (4 wins last season), and the NY Giants (6 wins last season). Six of Seattle’s wins last year came by 4 points or fewer or in OT and they were outgained in 5 of those tight 6 wins. The offense finished 17^th in points scored and 22^nd in total yardage and we look for the Seahawks to regress on that side of the ball. The offensive line is ranked 31^st (out of 32 teams) by PFF heading into the season and QB Geno Smith took a big step back last season. Smith had 10 fewer TD’s a year ago compared to 2022 and his completion percentage dropped by 5%. They had very little running game last season (92 YPG rushing) and operating behind a poor Oline could be problematic for Smith and Company. The defense allowed the 9^th most points in 2023 along with the 3^rd most yards gained by opponents despite finishing with a winning record. Seattle has a new head coach, Mike McDonald, who has never been a head man at any level, so some growing pains are expected. His coordinators are Ryan Grubb (OC) who has never coached in the NFL and Aden Durdy (DC) who has never been a DC in the NFL. They faced the 11^th most difficult schedule according to PFF and we look for this Seattle team to struggle in 2024.

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NFC WEST TOTAL WIN BEST BET – Over 9.5 Seattle Seahawks

No matter what the circumstances entering the season, Seattle always seems to get to at least 10 wins. In fact, since Russell Wilson took over at QB in 2012, the Seahawks have failed to win 10 games just ONCE and that was a 9-7 season in 2017. They have averaged 10.9 wins per season during Wilson’s 9-year run as starting QB. Seattle won the tough NFC West last year with a 12-4 record and it was no fluke as they led the division in point differential at +88. The offense will be very good again with Wilson and his playmakers on the outside (Metcalfe & Lockett) who are among the best in the NFC. They have the ability to outscore teams when the defense comes up short which it did a lot early last season. The Seahawks scored 30 or more points in 6 of their first 8 games when the defense was playing poorly. Despite the defense, they were 6-2 in those games. The defense improved by leaps and bounds in the 2^nd half of the season allowing just 15.8 PPG after giving up an average of 30.3 PPG over their first 8 games. If the defense can pick up where they left off, this team will be very good. We have them currently favored in 10 games this season and their underdog roles will all be small numbers (most +3 or less). All of their road games are winnable and the Hawks face 3 of the worst teams in the NFL in non-division play (Jags, Lions, and Texans). As we mentioned, Seattle and double digit wins have been the norm for almost a decade. Now with an extra game added in the regular season, we see no reason this team doesn’t get to at last 10 wins again in 2021.