Tag: scott rickenbach

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Point Train NFL Predictions – 2022-23

POINT TRAIN PREDICTIONS – all odds found at FanDuel

NFC WINNER – Green Bay Packers +500

The Packers have rolled to an impressive 39-10 regular season record the last 3 seasons which is the best mark in the NFL over that time period.  The defense should be one of the best in the NFL this year.  Green Bay is loaded in the defensive backfield and it could be argued they have three #1 corners with Alexander, Stokes and Douglas.  If they can shore up their run defense this will be tough to beat.  Because of that, the offense may not have to do as much as previous seasons.  QB Rodgers lost some key weapons in the passing game but others have stepped up in early practices and he tends to make all of his receivers look good.  The running game will be among the best in the league as well with the 2 headed monster of Jones and Dillon.  The Packers have won the NFC North in 8 of the last 11 seasons and we expect them to come out on top in the division again this year.  They’ve come up short in the NFC Championship game in 2 of the last 3 seasons and we think they have a great shot to get over the hump this year. 

NFC LONGER SHOT – New Orleans Saints +1700

The Saints roster is loaded with talent.  It’s one of the best in the NFL.  Their defense last year was very good finishing in the top 5 in PPG, YPG, and YPP allowed.  Their offensive weapons are as good as any in the league with RB Kamara (suspension possible?) and WR’s Thomas (back from injury), Landry and rookie Olave.  Can QB Jameis Winston play well enough to get this team to the playoffs?  That’s they only question we have with this team.  If Winston plays well, the Saints should be very good.  Tampa remains the only other formidable team in the division and New Orleans has owned the Bucs beating them 7 straight times in the regular season, including 4-0 facing Brady at QB. 

AFC WINNER – Buffalo Bills +400

The Bills have lost in the AFC Divisional or Championship game in each of the last 2 seasons.  Both losses were versus the Chiefs including a 42-36 setback in OT to get to the AFC Title game last season.  If you remember Buffalo took a 3 point lead in that game with just 13 seconds remaining the Chiefs were able to tie it in regulation and win in OT.  Despite coming up short, the Bills were the best team in the NFL for the entirety of the season.  They led the NFL in point differential and yards per play differential, both by a wide margin.  All 12 of their wins came by more than 10 points and 6 of their 7 losses came by a TD or less with 2 coming in OT.  The defense led the NFL allowing just 18 PPG and in yards per play allowed at just 4.8.  The offense should be great this year with QB Allen working with some high end weapons again this season.  If the offensive line can improve just a bit, watch out.  The AFC East is a fairly weak and the Bills are definitely the class of the division.  Buffalo finally gets to the Super Bowl this year.

AFC LONGER SHOT – Indianapolis Colts +1200

The Colts have the 3rd easiest schedule in the NFL this year and they sit in one of the weakest divisions in football, the AFC South.  Houston and Jacksonville are projected to be 2 of the worst teams in the NFL once again and Tennessee had the lowest point differential of any team that won their division.  Despite finishing 2nd last year, the Colts point differential was 21 points better than the Titans.  An upgrade at QB with Matt Ryan should help significantly as Wentz was a disaster last season.  We project Indianapolis to win the division this year and at 12/1 they are not a bad investment to win it all.

SUPER BOWL WINNER – Buffalo Bills +650

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Green Bay Packers Total Win prediction 2022

By ASA – Green Bay Packers Total Win Prediction 2022 – OVER 10.5 WINS

Did you know Green Bay has the 2nd most overall victories at 782 in league history? The Packers are going to add to that win total this season with 11 or more wins. Scheduling has a lot to do with it as they play in a weak NFC North Division.

No other team in the NFC North had a winning record last season and only Minnesota has had a winning record in the past three years.

                               2021       2020       2019

Vikings                 8-9          7-9          10-6

Bears                     6-11       8-8          8-8

Lions                      3-13-1   5-11       3-12

The Vikings and Bears have new coordinators in place and are completely changing their defensive schemes so expect slow starts for both. We do expect the Lions to be improved this season, but they are not a threat to Green Bay at the top of the Division.

Looking closer at those three other NFC North teams, none were in the top half of the league in overall (offensive/defensive) efficiency stats. The Packers were 8th overall in the NFL.

The Packers have won 13 games the previous three seasons with an average Margin of Victory at Plus +5.1PPG. Last year the Pack won 13 regular season games and the last game of the year versus Detroit was a meaningless loss.

Green Bay is nearly unbeatable at home with a 22-2 SU at home the previous three seasons so expect another 7 or 8 victories as the home team (one game against the Giants is in London).

Last season they owned a top 10 defense and expectations they’ll be better this year even with the loss of ZaDarius Smith (Vikings). The Packers drafted two Georgia (#1 in NCAA last year in D) defensive players (Walker, Wyatt) who expect to make an immediate impact.

The rushing offense was below or around league average in most key rushing categories, but it should be one of the better units in the NFL with Aaron Jones and AJ Dillion toting the football.

The Packers WR’s will be a question mark with the loss of Adams but they still have capable receivers in: Lazard, Cobb and Sammy Watkins. They drafted Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs, who has had outstanding preseason camp and is our longshot offensive rookie of the year bet at 100-1. The question we ask is this: Do the wide receivers need to great for Aaron Rodgers or does Rodgers throw those guys open? In the last three years Rodgers has 12,416 total passing yards, 111 TDs / 13 INT’s and a 72% completion percentage.

The Packers were underdogs just 4 times last season and won all 4. We have them favored in 14 of their games this season and would predict losses at Tampa Bay and Buffalo. Other than those two teams the Packers face a very winnable schedule which ranks 22nd in SOS this season.

We like Green Bay to win more than 11 games.

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ASA – NFL Hall of Fame Game – Aug 4, 2022

ASA’s NFL PRE-SEASON HALL OF FAME GAME PREVIEW

LINE – Opened Las Vegas -1 and has been bet up to -2.5.  Total opened 33.5 and has been pushed down to 30.5

JACKSONVILLE JAGUAR NOTES – Starting QB Trevor Lawrence and back up Beathard will not play in this game.  3rd stringer Jake Luton, who has not taken a snap since 2020, will get the start.  Luton played some in Jacksonville’s 1-15 season in 2020 and finished the year with 2 TD’s and 6 interceptions.  He was then cut by the Jags and spent most of last season on Seattle’s practice squad.  Once he exits rookie Kyle Sloter from Northern Colorado will get the rest of the snaps so not much experience at QB for Jacksonville in this game.  The Jags will also be without their top 2 RB’s in this game, Etienne and Robinson.  Jacksonville was a disaster last year under head coach Urban Meyer who treated his players like college kids and had very little respect in the locker room.  They went 3-14 last year and had the worst point differential in the NFL at -204.  We expect a much improved Jacksonville squad and that’s what the oddsmakers feel as well with their win total set at 6.5 after just 3 wins last year.  They will take the field with a new head coach Doug Pederson who had solid success as Philadelphia’s head man, including a Super Bowl win in the 2017/18 season.  We think Pederson, who has been very good with QB’s, will do wonders for Lawrence this season.  Look for his numbers to improve drastically.  As far as the pre-season is concerned, Pederson has an 8-8 overall record as a head coach but in his first year at the helm for the Eagles he was 4-0 in NFLX telling us he may put some extra emphasis on winning in his first year in Florida.

LAS VEGAS RAIDERS NOTES – In this NFLX game specifically, the Raiders should have the edge at QB.  No announcement yet on whether starter Derek Carr will play but his back ups are fairly experienced.  Nick Mullens has made a number of NFL starts in his career and has attempted over 600 passes.  Jarrett Stidham will also play and started a few games for the Patriots back in 2020.  Like the Jags, the Raiders also have a new head coach in Josh McDaniels, who has 2 years of head coaching experience with the Broncos in 2009 & 2010.  The Raiders were 10-7 last year and made the playoffs but their numbers didn’t support a team with that type of success.  They actually had a negative point differential of -65 which was 4th worst in the AFC despite their 10 win season.  Seven of their ten wins were by 4 points or fewer or in OT.  The Raiders actually were a perfect 4-0 in overtime games last season.  By our metrics they were probably closer to a .500 type team rather than a playoff squad.  McDaniels is a solid offensive mind who has always adapted very well to his QB strengths be it Tom Brady, Cam Newton, or Mac Jones.  The offense has added a few key pieces including GB WR Davante Adams and QB Carr is one of the underrated signal callers in the league.  The Raiders should be very good on that side of the ball.  In regards to the pre-season, Josh McDaniels had a 2-6 lifetime record but as with most 1st year head coaches, we expect him to want to win in the pre-season.   

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Rickenbach Free MLB play July 25

MLB Monday Free Pick OVER 9.5 in Boston Red Sox vs Cleveland Guardians @ 7:10 ET – Action on pitchers. Boston has allowed an average of 8.6 runs per game last 16 games! Even taking out the crazy 28-5 loss to Toronto, the Red Sox have allowed 7.3 runs per game last 15 games! In other words, no matter the starting pitcher Boston has been giving up piles of runs. If Pivetta starts tonight, that is even better as he has allowed 20 earned runs in his 13.1 innings in the month of July! As for the Guardians, they have averaged 6 runs per game last 7 games and their last 6 games have averaged a total of 10 runs scored. I look for this one to get to double digits regardless of who is on the mound but will mention that Plesac is the expected starter and he has allowed 11 runs (8 earned) in 14.2 innings in the month of July. Look for a high-scoring game at Fenway Park tonight. Free Pick OVER 9.5 in Boston