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NBA Finals Prediction – Efficiency Champion – 4/19/24

NBA Championships based on Math!

By – ASA

So, you’re thinking about a future wager on the NBA Championship and you’re not sure who to take? We can help you with some proven statistics that may accurately predict who this year’s Champion may be and rule out the most obvious media darling pretenders.

The backbone of this research is centered around efficiency ratings/rankings compiled through the regular season and is a tool I first discovered in the early 2000’s. Since then, I have seen several variations of my original work from other experts in the field, but here is the authentic version.

The average overall efficiency rating this season in the NBA was 1.153 points scored/allowed per possession. The Boston Celtics were the most efficient offense in the NBA at 1.232 points per possessions while the Minnesota Timberwolves held the best defensive efficiency rating in the league of 1.090 points allowed per/possession.  If past history tells us anything, these numbers can be extremely useful in predicting this year’s eventual NBA Champion.

This trend started in 2008-09 when the Finals featured the LA Lakers with head coach Phil Jackson and HOF’er Kobe Bryant, facing the Orlando Magic and a young Dwight Howard. The Lakers won that Finals series in dominating fashion 4 games to 1.  The Lakers finished the regular season ranked 3rd in offensive efficiency ratings (OEFF) and 6th in defensive efficiency (DEFF). Orlando had efficiency numbers that ranked them 12th in OEFF and 1st in DEFF. This was the beginning of the “efficiency” NBA Champions.

Below are the NBA Finals Champions and their overall efficiency rankings for the past 15 Championships.

NBA CHAMPIONS FROM 2008 on and OEFF/DEFF regular season efficiency rankings:

2008-09 LA Lakers (OEFF = 3rd, DEFF = 6th)

2009-10 LA Lakers (OEFF = 11th, DEFF = 4th)

2010-11 Dallas Mavericks (OEFF = 8th, DEFF = 7th)

2011-12 Miami Heat (OEFF = 8th, DEFF = 4th)

2012-13 Miami Heat (OEFF = 1st, DEFF = 9th)

2013-14 San Antonio Spurs (OEFF = 7th, DEFF = 3rd)

2014-15 Golden State Warriors (OEFF = 2nd, DEFF = 1st)

2015-16 Cleveland Cavaliers (OEFF = 3rd, DEFF = 10th)

2016-17 Golden State Warriors (OEFF = 1st, DEFF = 2nd)

2017-18 Golden State Warriors (OEFF = 3rd, DEFF = 11th) 

2018-19 Toronto Raptors (OEFF = 5th, DEFF = 5th)

2019-20 LA Lakers Covid (OEFF = 11th, DEFF = 3rd)

2020-21 Milwaukee Bucks (OEFF = 6th, DEFF = 10th)

2021-22 Golden State Warriors (OEFF = 16th, DEFF = 2nd)

2022-23 Denver Nuggets (OEFF 5th, DEFF = 13th)

EFFICIENCY RATINGS MATTER

You can see for yourself that there have only been two teams that have won a Championship in the last fifteen years that had an (offensive efficiency) OEFF or (defensive efficiency) DEFF NOT in the top 11 for that season. It has been the last two Champs in the Warriors in 21-22 and Nuggets last season.  Every team that has won a Championship in the past 15 Finals has specifically had a Defensive Efficiency ranking in the top 13 at the end of the regular season. 

Using this model (top 11 OEFF and top 13 in DEFF) to predict this year’s Champion we can eliminate everyone but the following teams: Celtics, Thunder, Nuggets, Knicks, Suns and Pelicans. On the outside looking in is Philadelphia who we know played a portion of the season without an MVP type player in Joel Embiid. The Sixers were 13th in OEFF and 11th in DEFF this season. Another team who we pegged prior to the start of the season at +2500 to win it all, who falls outside of this parameter, is the Mavericks. The Mavs rank 10th in OEFF on the season but don’t qualify defensively, ranking 18th in DEFF for the year. But, since the All-Star break the Mavs defense has been infinitely better, ranking 12th in defensive efficiency allowing 1.134PPP.

2023-24 Regular Season Efficiency Rankings for the Math Model “Contenders”

Boston Celtics: OEFF 1st, DEFF 3rd

Oklahoma City Thunder: OEFF 3rd, DEFF 4th

Denver Nuggets: OEFF 5th, DEFF 8th

NY Knicks: OEFF 7th, DEFF 9th

New Orleans Pelicans: OEFF 11th, DEFF 7th

Phoenix Suns: OEFF 9th, DEFF 13th 

Let’s also take into consideration how these teams fared this season against the other top 16 teams in the league. 

Celtics 27-14 SU

Thunder 27-18 SU

T’Wolves 26-19 SU

Nuggets 28-18 SU

Knicks 17-23

Suns 23-22

Intriguing options not on the list! – Dallas Mavericks (+1600) or Los Angeles Clippers (+1600) 

As we mentioned above the Mavericks would make this list if we tabulated stats from the All-Star break on. Dallas made some moves prior to the trade deadline and brought in PJ Washington and Daniel Gafford which improved their defense dramatically. Offensively this team has two of the best players on the planet, Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving who can each single-handedly take over a game on the offensive end of the court. The Clippers go as far as a healthy Kawhi Leonard can take them. Unfortunately, we don’t know Leonard’s status but “Playoff Kawhi” is as good as any player historically in the NBA in the postseason. L.A. is loaded with All-Star level talent with Paul George, James Harden, Russell Westbrook along with Leonard and it wouldn’t surprise us to see them in the Finals. The Clippers ranked 4th in Offensive Efficiency this season but were 16th defensively. 

Our Money is on the favorite…BOSTON CELTICS *We had Boston prior to the start of the season at +380*

Everyone talks about a “Big 3” when it comes to NBA Super Teams, but you could argue that the Celtics have a “Big 5” with a starting lineup that includes: Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Kristaps Porzingis, Jrue Holiday and Derrick White. Let’s not forget to mention the Celtics bench with Sam Hauser, Al Horford, Luke Kornet and Payton Pritchard, just to name a few, who helped Boston have the best bench Net Rating in the NBA at +6.2.  

As we previously mentioned, the Celtics had the best record in the NBA against the top 16 teams in the league this season at 27-14. They ranked 1st in OEFF and 3rd defensively. The Celtics had the best average Margin of Victory per game at +11.3 overall. Boston won at home by an average of +15.2PPG and had a road average differential of +7.5PPG, all best MOV’s in the league. The Celtics have the advantage of home court throughout the Playoffs where they were near unbeatable. They were 20-4 SU versus other playoff teams on their floor this season. Boston may not have to face either Joel Embiid or Giannis Antetokounmpo in the Eastern Conference Finals, and even though the Knicks qualify for an Efficiency Championship, we don’t think they are deep enough to beat the Celtics in a 7-game series. 

Overall, this shapes up to be one of the best NBA playoffs in a long time and we can’t wait! Best of luck with all your wagers.

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ASA NBA Champion Prediction 2022

Who’s going to win it all in 2022?

So, you’re thinking about a future wager on the NBA Championship and you’re not sure who to take? We can help you with some proven statistics that accurately predict who this year’s Champion may be and rule out the most obvious media darling pretenders.

The backbone of this research is centered around efficiency ratings/rankings compiled through the regular season.  The average overall efficiency rating this season in the NBA was 1.110 points scored/allowed per possession or 110 points per 100 possessions. The Utah Jazz were the most efficient offense in the NBA at 116.7 points per 100 possessions (1.167PPP) while the Atlanta Hawks were a close second at 1.165PPP with the Bucks (1.152), Suns (1.149) and Grizzlies (1.147PPP) rounding out the top five. The Boston Celtics own the top defensive efficiency rating in the league allowing just 107 or 1.070 points per possession this season. The other four teams that round out the top five are Golden State, Phoenix, Memphis and Miami. If history tells us anything, these numbers can be extremely useful in predicting the NBA Champion.

This trend started in 2008-09 when the Finals featured the LA Lakers with head coach Phil Jackson and HOF’er Kobe Bryant, facing the Orlando Magic and a young Dwight Howard. The Lakers won that Finals series in dominating fashion 4 games to 1.  The Lakers finished the regular season ranked 3rd in offensive efficiency ratings (OEFF) and 6th in defensive efficiency (DEFF). Orlando had efficiency numbers that ranked them 12th in OEFF and 1st in DEFF. This was the beginning of the “efficiency” Champions in the recent decades.

Below are the Finals Champions and their overall efficiency rankings for the past thirteen Championships.

NBA CHAMPIONS FROM 2008 on and OEFF/DEFF regular season efficiency rankings:

2008-09 LA Lakers (OEFF = 3rd, DEFF = 6th)

2009-10 LA Lakers (OEFF = 11th, DEFF = 4th)

2010-11 Dallas Mavericks (OEFF = 8th, DEFF = 7th)

2011-12 Miami Heat (OEFF = 8th, DEFF = 4th)

2012-13 Miami Heat (OEFF = 1st, DEFF = 9th)

2013-14 San Antonio Spurs (OEFF = 7th, DEFF = 3rd)

2014-15 Golden State Warriors (OEFF = 2nd, DEFF = 1st)

2015-16 Cleveland Cavaliers (OEFF = 3rd, DEFF = 10th)

2016-17 Golden State Warriors (OEFF = 1st, DEFF = 2nd)

2017-18 Golden State Warriors (OEFF = 3rd, DEFF = 11th)

2018-19 Toronto Raptors (OEFF = 5th, DEFF = 5TH)

2019-20 LA Lakers (OEFF = 11th, DEFF = 3rd)

2020-21 Milwaukee Bucks (OEFF = 6th, DEFF = 10th)

2022     ??????

You can see for yourself that every team that has won a Championship in the last ten years had an OEFF and DEFF in the top 11 for that season.  Using this model to predict this year’s Champion we can eliminate everyone but the following teams: Boston and Miami from the East, Phoenix, Utah and Memphis from the West. There are clearly some favorites or notable names that did not make the list. The Milwaukee Bucks are 3rd in OEFF, but rank 13th in DEFF. The Golden State Warriors have the 2nd best defensive efficiency rating but are 16th in offensive efficiency. Brooklyn who had to deal with Kyrie Irving missing half the games was 11th in OEFF, 19th in DEFF. The outlier is the Philadelphia 76ers who just missed the top eleven, ranking 12th in both OEFF/DEFF.

2021-22 Regular Season Efficiency Rankings for the Math Model “Contenders”

Boston Celtics: OEFF 7th, DEFF 1stth

Utah Jazz: OEFF 1st, DEFF 9th

Phoenix Suns: OEFF 4th, DEFF 3rd

Memphis Grizzlies: OEFF 5th, DEFF 4th

Miami Heat: OEFF 10th, DEFF 5th

If we add in another identifier of Efficiency Differential (the +/- of the Offensive/Defensive efficiency numbers) to our equation it helps narrow down the field of this year’s contenders. Going back to 2008 only one NBA Champion has had a EDIFF plus/minus of less than +5 which was the Mavericks in 2010-11 of plus +4.7. The last ten NBA Champions have produced a EDIFF +/- of 5.7 or better during the regular season. If we apply that logic to this year’s field we narrow down our potential winner to four teams.

2021-22 Effficiency Differential leaders during the regular season:

1st Phoenix Suns +7.5

2nd Boston Celtics +7.4

3rd Utah Jazz +6.2

4th Memphis Grizzlies +5.7

Using the aforementioned guidelines our Money is on…the Phoenix Suns +260

The Phoenix Suns lost to the Bucks in the NBA Finals last season, so they’ve experience what it takes to get to the Finals and tasted bitter defeat. The Suns were favored in 69 of their 82 games during the regular season and finished the year at 64-18 SU with a +/- of 7.5PPG, which was best in the league. Phoenix owns home court throughout the Playoffs, and they were 32-9 SU at home with an average Margin of Victory of +8.9PPG. If we look at Efficiency Differential, of the last eight NBA Champions, 3 have finished the regular season with the best +/- EDIFF. Phoenix was that team this season with an EDIFF of +7.5. The Suns have veteran point guard Chris Paul to guide the ship, a scoring machine in Devin Booker who is capable of carrying a team offensively and a rim protector and inside presence in Deandre Ayton. Then add in a mix of capable role players in Bridges, Crowder, Payne and Johnson and you have a team poised to win it all.

LONGSHOT: If you are looking for a better return on your investment, the UTAH JAZZ +$2500 are an intriguing long-shot proposition. The Jazz didn’t play well down the stretch of the regular season and are flying under the radar right now. But let’s look at the whole body of work or the season numbers for our prediction. The Jazz were favored in more games this season than the Suns with 74 of 82 games laying points. They own the 3rd best overall average Margin of Victory at +6PPG. The Jazz were 3rd this season in EDIFF and eight of the last thirteen NBA Champs have ranked 3rd or better in that category. Obviously, the Jazz have a similar roster to the Suns with a proven scorer in Donovan Mitchell, the best defensive center in the league in Gobert along with vets Mike Conley and Bojan Bogdanovic. Remember a few years ago when Mitchell was nearly unstoppable in the postseason? It will take a performance like that from him again along with the rest of the roster, but they clearly have the statistical support to win it all.

Overall, this shapes up to be one of the best NBA playoffs in a long time and we can’t wait! Best of luck with all your wagers.