Tag: nfl winners

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NFL MVP Odds | A QB longshot | 9-3-24 | By ASA

NFL MVP Odds – QB Jared Goff Detroit Lions +$2500 – By ASA

Jared Goff’s odds for winning the NFL MVP in 2024 have been a topic of interest among sports analysts and bettors, reflecting a mix of skepticism and optimism based on his performance trajectory and the Lions’ team success. At a higher price point we like Goff as a potential longshot to win the MVP in 2024.

Have you looked at the Lions schedule this season? Detroit and QB Goff will play in a controlled environment or Dome in 14 of their seventeen games this season. Goff and the Lions were 9-3 SU when playing in a Dome last season. Goff threw for over 4,400 yards in 2022 with 29 TD’s to 7 INT’s in leading Detroit to a 9-8 record. Last season, Goff threw for 4,575 yards (2nd most in league) with a 30/12 TD/INT ration in helping the Lions for a 14-6 record and a loss in the NFC Championship game.

Goff’s career statistics in domes show a higher completion percentage, better passer rating, and a more favorable touchdown to interception ratio. When playing indoors, Goff has a 67.4% completion rate, with 92 touchdowns and 32 interceptions over 55 games.

Conversely, his outdoor games statistics are less impressive, with a completion percentage around 62.2%, 101 touchdowns, and 52 interceptions across 71 games.

Goff’s MVP odds have been listed at various points between +2200 and +2500, indicating he’s seen as a dark horse candidate but with significant value for bettors if he performs exceptionally.

Goff has shown improvement and consistency, leading the Lions to two straight winning seasons. His stats from previous seasons, like throwing for over 4,400 yards with a high completion percentage and a favorable touchdown to interception ratio, underline his capability at the helm of an offense. The Lions’ success, particularly if they secure a high seed in the playoffs, could significantly boost Goff’s MVP case, given the award’s tendency to favor quarterbacks from top-seeded teams.

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TNF Free Bet – Bears vs. Commanders – October 5th 2023

ASA FREE PLAY 1ST HALF TOTAL BET – OVER 21.5 CHICAGO BEARS @ WASHINGTON COMMANDERS

These teams should put up plenty of points here in the first half to cash this over. Games involving the Bears this season have averaged 25.3 total points per game by halftime.

Ironically, games involving the Commanders have averaged that exact same total of 25.3PPG.

Defensively Washington is solid against the Pass but susceptible against the run. The Commanders allow 4.5 Yards Per Rush (26th) and 122.5RYPG (21st). The Bears can exploit that weakness with their rushing offense that is 5th in Yards Per Rush at 4.7 and 13th in overall rushing YPG.

Washington allows 30PPG (29th) which is a full TD more than league average.

While we are on the subject of defense….

The Bears defense allows 6.2YPPL which ranks 29th in the league. They give up 34.2PPG which is 2nd to last in the league.

Washington hasn’t been great offensively but QB Howell should have success here against a Bears Pass D is 32nd in Yards Per Completion, 31st in Yards Per Pass Attempt and 31st in opposing quarterbacks QBR.

It all adds up to plenty of points in the 1st half of this game and we will back the OVER 21.5 1st HALF.

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NFL FREE BET | SEPT 10TH | Jags vs. Colts

ASA FREE NFL PREDICTION on the Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Indianapolis Colts, Sunday Sept 10th 2023

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS TEAM TOTAL – UNDER 20.5 POINTS

The Colts offense is in trouble! They are starting rookie QB Richardson out of Florida who only started 13 games with the Gators. It would be much easier for Richardson if he had RB Taylor in the backfield to take pressure off the passing game. Taylor led the league in rushing yards in 2021 but demanded a trade before the season and is now on the PUP list and out for four games. Indianapolis averaged just 17PPG last season which ranked 30th in the league. On average, it took them 18.3 yards gained to score 1-point which was also 30th. The Colts lacked explosiveness too with an offense that averaged only 4.8-Yards Per Play which was again 30th. The Jags made huge strides defensively last season allowing just 21.4PPG compared to 26.9PPG they gave up the season before. Jacksonville allowed 13.1-Yards per Point in 2021 (30th) and improved to 16.4-Yards Per Point allowed in 2022. It is going to be a long season for the Colts and we don’t see them scoring more than 20-points in this opener.

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AFC East betting prediction | NY Jets Total Wins

AFC EAST

NFL WIN TOTAL – NY JETS UNDER 9.5 +140

Clearly the big offseason acquisition by the Jets was QB Aaron Rodgers which has New York in a frenzy and anointed as a Super Bowl contender. The reality is that this team had a win total a year ago of 5.5 which they surpassed with 7 wins in 2022-23. Of those 7 wins a year ago, only three came against a team that finished the regular season with a winning record. New York was VERY good defensively a season ago finishing 5th in total DVOA after facing eleven teams that ranked in the top half of the league in offensive DVOA. Rodgers numbers fell off last season in Green Bay with his worst career QBR of 39.3 and his lowest total passing yards in a season going back to 2013. His 6.8- yards per pass attempt was his second lowest average going back to 2006 and he threw 12 INT’s which is the second most of his career. We also can’t ignore Rodger’s age (39) and let’s face it; the Jets are one play away from having Zach Wilson as their starting QB. The biggest factor that will impact the Jets season is their schedule which is one of, if not the toughest in the NFL. New York must face the rest of the AFC East twice along with the AFC West and NFC East. They also get the Browns, Falcons and Texans who will be better this season than they were a year ago. The value in the number has us on the UNDER here.

OTHER JETS BETTING OPTIONS:

·         Jets to NOT make the Playoffs +110

·         RB Breece Hall OVER 5.5 RUSHING TOUCHDOWNS – *Only if Dalvin Cook is NOT added to the Jets roster* – Hall had 4 rushing TD’s a season ago in only 7 games. NY will employ a West Coast offense that features a strong rushing philosophy.

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NFL Player Props Oct 23rd – ASA

Below are three NFL player props for Sunday, October 23rd – By ASAwins

Cleveland Browns – David Njoku Over 37.5 Rec Yards (-114)

We are going “back to the well”, riding Njoku once more this week. He has had 58 or more yards in his last four games while commanding at least six targets during each contest. Baltimore ranks 28th in passing yards allowed per game which should give way for Njoku to once again surpass his low yardage projection set by oddsmakers. Until we see his target share decline, or oddsmakers boost his yardage total, Cleveland’s versatile TE will remain an intriguing option.

Seattle Seahawks – Geno Smith Under .5 INTs (+110)

Seattle has been one of the few NFL teams to actually surpass offensive expectations to start the year. Thought to have one of the worst offenses entering 2022, Geno Smith has led the Seahawks to a top 10 offense in points scored. Smith is playing the best football of his career, with a 9/2 TD/INT ratio and a 108.1 passer rating. With only 2 picks so far this year, plus money on Geno to have another clean game holds a lot of value.  

Atlanta Falcons – Olamide Zaccheaus Over 31.5 Rec Yards (-114)

Zaccheaus has been a quiet but vital part of the Falcons surprising 3-3 start. Despite Marcus Mariota’s lack of passing ability, he has connected with Zaccheaus at least twice every single game, usually for chunk plays. In 5 of their 6 games, Olamide has one catch of at least 20 or more yards, also surpassing 38 yards in all of those 5 games. With the few looks Zaccheaus gets, he is extremely efficient, catching 89% of his targets. This trend should continue in a high scoring matchup with the Bengals. 

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