Tag: nfl predictions

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MNF Prop Bets | Bills vs. Jets Player Props

MNF Prop Bets on the Buffalo Bills vs. NY Jets game – Sept 11th 2023

UNDER 70.5 RECEIVING YARDS – BUFFALO BILLS WR STEFON DIGGS – Last season Diggs averaged 89.1-Yards Receiving per game with a 154 total targets on the season. In two games against the Jets, he was held to an average of 4 receptions per game and 65-Yards receiving. Diggs faded down the stretch last season, averaging under 67.5 receiving yards in four of the Bills last six games. Last season the Jets defense ranked 3rd in passing yards allowed at 189.4YPG. Buffalo averaged 261.4-Passing Yards Per Game a year ago which was 5th best in the NFL. In the two games against this Jets defense last year, Allen and Bills threw for just 352-total yards.  

OVER 35.5 RUSHING YARDS – BUFFALO BILLS QB JOSH ALLEN – Allen was 2nd on the Bills team last year in rushing at 762 total rushing yards. That’s an average of 47.6-Rushing Yards Per Game. He has rushed for over 760-Yards in each of the last two seasons. Against a Jets defense that is extremely tough to pass on, it should lead to more rushing opportunities for Allen when his receivers are covered downfield. In the two games against this Jets D a year ago he rushed for 47 and 86 yards respectively.

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NFL FREE BET | SEPT 10TH | Jags vs. Colts

ASA FREE NFL PREDICTION on the Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Indianapolis Colts, Sunday Sept 10th 2023

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS TEAM TOTAL – UNDER 20.5 POINTS

The Colts offense is in trouble! They are starting rookie QB Richardson out of Florida who only started 13 games with the Gators. It would be much easier for Richardson if he had RB Taylor in the backfield to take pressure off the passing game. Taylor led the league in rushing yards in 2021 but demanded a trade before the season and is now on the PUP list and out for four games. Indianapolis averaged just 17PPG last season which ranked 30th in the league. On average, it took them 18.3 yards gained to score 1-point which was also 30th. The Colts lacked explosiveness too with an offense that averaged only 4.8-Yards Per Play which was again 30th. The Jags made huge strides defensively last season allowing just 21.4PPG compared to 26.9PPG they gave up the season before. Jacksonville allowed 13.1-Yards per Point in 2021 (30th) and improved to 16.4-Yards Per Point allowed in 2022. It is going to be a long season for the Colts and we don’t see them scoring more than 20-points in this opener.

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NFC East prediction | Washington Commanders Over 6.5 Wins

NFC EAST Prediction on the Washington Commanders Over 6.5 Wins in 2023

NFL WIN TOTAL – OVER 6.5 WINS WASHINGTON COMMANDERS +110

The number on the Commanders opened at 7.5 wins at several shops (even 8.5 at a few) but was bet down to the current O/U of 6.5 with plus money. We like the value now and will bet Washington Over 6.5 wins and would even consider Over 7.5 wins at plus +175. Washington has decided to start Sam Howell at quarterback after a failed experiment with Taylor Heinicke and Carson Wentz in 2022. The Commanders won 8 games last season with a passing offense that was 21st in the NFL in yards per game and was 28th in passing DVOA. Howell will be an upgrade at that position if he plays as well as he did in the preseason where he was28 of 37, 75% completion rate for 265 yards with 3 TD’s and zero interceptions. Washington allowed just 20.2PPG last season which ranked 8th best in the NFL. The Commanders allowed 5.2 Yards Per Play which was 10th best in the league and were 3rd overall in Yards Per Game allowed at 304.6YPG. Teams had a very tough time sustaining drives against the Commanders as they allowed foes to convert 3rd downs at a 31.90% which was best in the league. Teams had a tough time scoring TD’s in the Red Zone against the Commanders as they finished the 2022 season ranked 9th best in the NFL at 51.92%. Washington relied heavily on their running game with the 4th most rushing attempts in the league at 31.6. They averaged 126.1 rushing yards per game, which was 12th most. Granted, the Commanders play in the very tough NFC East, but they have a great defense, an upgrade at the QB position and should benefit from more fans support this season with Dan Snyder out as owner. Washington faces Arizona, Denver, Buffalo, Philadelphia, Chicago, Atlanta, and the Giants in the first seven weeks of the season and other than Buffalo and Philly they are all very winnable games. Over 6.5 wins for the Washington Commanders in the NFC East prediction.

OTHER BETTING OPTIONS:

  • Terry McLaurin OVER 4.5 RECEIVING TOUCHDOWNS -108 – McLaurin has produced over 3,300 total receiving yards in three combined seasons and is only 1 of ten players to accomplish this impressive feat. His TD production is low considering the yardage, but he has caught 4, 5 and 5 TD’s in his last three seasons. His Red Zone targets have also been low considering his overall usage, but we are betting those change with new QB Sam Howell under center.

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NFC North Prediction | Bears Win Total

NFC NORTH Prediction – Chicago Bears UNDER 7.5 TOTAL WINS – By ASA

NFL WIN TOTAL – UNDER 7.5 WINS CHICAGO BEARS -122

The oddsmakers have set the Bears O/U win total at more than twice their number of wins from a season ago when they went 3-14. Has Chicago gotten that much better in the offseason? They lost ten straight games to close the season in 2022 and had the worst average margin of victory at minus -8.1PPG. Six of the Bears losses a season ago were by a touchdown or more. Chicago had a negative Yards Per Play differential at minus -0.8YPPL as they averaged 5.3YPPL but allowed 6.1YPPL. The Bears weren’t good on either side of the football with a defense that was 32nd in DVOA rankings and 25th in offensive DVOA. Chicago ranked 32nd defensively against the pass and 30th in stopping the run. Offensively it was only slightly better than defensively with the 30th ranked passing offense and the 25th rated rushing offense. Teams were able to sustain drives against the Bears as they were last in the NFL in 3rd down conversion defense allowing opponents to successfully convert 49.02% of their 3rd downs. Chicago QB Justin Fields was 15th in QBR last season and made more plays with his feet than his arm as he rushed over 1,143 yards last season which was 7th most in the NFL. The Bears were 30th in the league in passing yards per game at just 130.5. We can’t overlook the fact that the Bears play a soft schedule this season, but our expectations are the Packers and Vikings will be better than most experts anticipate. That means winning games in the NFC North Division will be tougher than expected. Our NFC North Predicted wins for Chicago is a max of 7 wins.

OTHER BETTING OPTIONS:

  • JUSTIN FIELDS – OVER 800.5 RUSHING YARDS -112 – You may want to shop for the best number on this O/U as we’ve seen totals as high as 825.5 rushing yards for Fields this season. Last season Fields rushed for over 1,100 yards and was 7th in the league in rushing yards. That’s not just QB’s either, but the entire league. To put that into perspective he had more rushing yards than: Christian McCaffrey, Aaron Jones, Najee Harris, Tony Pollard just to name a few marquee running backs in the NFL. Fields averaged 7.1-yards per rush and he’ll produce plenty of big plays with his feet again in 2023.

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NFC South Prediction | Panthers Win Total

NFC SOUTH Prediction UNDER 7.5 WINS Carolina Panthers – Sept 5th 2023 – By ASA

NFL WIN TOTAL – UNDER 7.5 WINS CAROLINA PANTHERS -115

This is my least-liked NFL win total projection but in my opinion it’s the best of the NFC South. The Carolina Panthers have decided to ‘hitch their wagon’ to rookie QB Bryce Young as they’ve named him QB1 heading into the regular season. The 5-foot-10 200-pounder is undersized by today’s quarterback standards and even though he was a winner in college the transition to the NFL may not happen and will at a minimum take time. We didn’t see a lot of Young in the preseason but what we did see wasn’t overly impressive. He was 14 of 24 for less than 130 total yards and 1 TD. Carolina won 7 games last season in the NFC South but it will be tough to get to that number in 2023. In the South the Saints and Falcons are expected to be improved and Tampa still has a top 10’ish defense. The Panthers allowed 350.2YPG last season (22nd), 22PPG and 5.4-Yards Per Play which ranked them 17th in the NFL. Offensively the Panthers were 29th in the league in total yards per game at 306.2YPG. They averaged just 5.3-Yards Per Play (17th) and were last in the league when it came to converting 3rd downs at 3.8 per game. The Panthers had a net scoring differential of minus -1.6PPG (23rd). It doesn’t help that the Panthers have a below average offensive line by our metrics which will make life difficult for their rookie QB. The schedule isn’t terrible but the improvement by a couple of teams in the division will make it tough for the Panthers to get to 8 wins.

OTHER BETTING OPTIONS:

  • BYRCE YOUNG UNDER 22.5 TOTAL PASSING TOUCHDOWNS -145 – This number opened 26.5 so we’ve lost some value but will still make an investment in this Under. Carolina was 12th in rushing attempts last season, were 13th in rushing TD’s per game and 10th in rushing TD percentage at 44.44%. Carolina was 28th in passing TD’s per game last season at 0.9 and 29th in passing touchdown percentage at 44.44%. The four QB’s for the Panthers last season threw 16 total touchdown passes. Don’t expect Young to get to 23.

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