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MNF free prediction – Seattle Seahawks at NY Giants, Oct 2 2023

ASA free bet: Seattle Seahawks 1st Half -.5 Pts

This is going to be hard to believe but the Giants have been outscored in the 1st halves of games this year by a combined 63 to 6 total points. They are averaging just 2PPG in the 1st half and allowing 21PPG. Seattle comes into tonight averaging 10.7PPG at the break while allowing 11.3PPG in the first half. The G-Men were slow starters a year ago also averaging just 8.8PPG in the 1st halves of games which was 6th worst in the NFL. We like Seattle to have a slight edge at the break on MNF.

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NFL FREE BET | OCT 1st 2023

ASA’S FREE NFL BET – OVER 46.5 DENVER BRONCOS AT CHICAGO BEARS, 1PM ET

Two terrible defenses going at it in this one will give both offenses plenty of opportunities. Denver ranks last in YPP allowed at over 7.0 and Chicago ranks 30th giving up 6.0 YPP. The Broncos defensively stats took a big hit last week allowing Miami to score 70 points but lets not forget the week prior they allowed Washington to score 35 points to a Washington team that scored 23 total points in their other 2 games vs teams not named Denver. Over 56% of opponents possessions vs the Broncos this season have either reached the red zone or scored prior to that which is the worst rate in the league. We think Chicago’s offense lays it all on the line here with nothing to lose and plays well. They thrive on the ground with their mobile QB Fields and Denver ranks 31st allowing 5.6 YPC on the season. In their only other home game this season the Bears put up 20 points on GB and we look for them to exceed that number today. Denver should have plenty of scoring opportunities as well. The Broncos offense has actually been solid averaging 5.7 YPP which is 8th in the NFL. QB Wilson is quietly having a solid season and he’ll be facing a Chicago secondary that ranks 30th in passing YPG allowed and 31st in yards per pass attempt. Chicago’s defense has allowed 27 points or more in every game this season and dating back to last year they’ve allowed at least 25 points in 13 consecutive games. Perfect weather here with temps in the mid 70’s and light winds. Both offenses should thrive in this one and we’re going Over the total.

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Lions vs. Packers Predictions – Player Props – Sept 28th 2023

Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers – Thursday, Sept 28th 2023

Detroit Lions -1.5 | Over-Under 45.5

Green Bay Packers

1st HALF LINE – Lions -.5 | O/U 22

Team Totals – Lions O/U 23.5 – Packers O/U 21.5

Detroit Lions 2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS

Green Bay Packers 2-1 SU, 3-0 ATS

Thursday Night Player Props

Jordan Love Under 34 yards Longest Passing Play

Love has been solid in his first three starts for the Packers but has not hit on many big plays. Detroit ranks 10th (62.7%) in opponent completion percentage and Love is only completing 53% of his passes anyway. At 6.8 yards per attempt it shows his willingness to throw underneath and settle for short gains. In a short week, with multiple offensive playmakers questionable, we expect Love to continue to focus on short passes that keep Green Bay ahead of the chains. 

Romeo Doubs Over Anytime TD

Doubs has 3 touchdowns in 3 games in 2023. He has been the main redzone target for Jordan Love and feels like the Davante Adams replacement for Matt LaFleuer in that area. Aaron Jones is the only other reliable redzone threat for the Packers and his status is up in air. AJ Dillion has been flat out terrible in Jones’ absence so look for Doubs to again capitalize when Green Bay gets into scoring territory. 

Jared Goff Over .5 INTs

Having thrown an interception in both of his previous two games, we feel the trend continues on a short week. Overall, Goff has been a good if not great QB since becoming the starter in Detroit. The passing volume that has increased due to his play brings in more opportunity for mistakes however. Green Bay has a +2 turnover differential so far while Detroit has a -3 differential. Goff has thrown 30+ passes in all three games this year, so a high volume night is likely in store again, leaving plenty of room for a mistake in front of a rocking Lambeau Field crowd.  

Amon-Ra St. Brown Over 72.5 Rec Yards 

Averaging over 91 yards per game this season, Amon-Ra will benefit greatly if Jaire Alexander misses his second straight game. Regardless, the Lions will target St. Brown early and often and love hitting him on deep crossing routes off of play action. He is becoming one of the elite WRs in the league and a true number one for the Lions. Green Bay ranks 10th in passing yards allowed per game, but that number is skewed from playing some of the worst QBs in the league the first three weeks. Another 100 yards day could be in store for St. Brown, but 73 yards is very attainable even against a Packers defense that has played well to start the year. 

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MNF Prop Bets | Bills vs. Jets Player Props

MNF Prop Bets on the Buffalo Bills vs. NY Jets game – Sept 11th 2023

UNDER 70.5 RECEIVING YARDS – BUFFALO BILLS WR STEFON DIGGS – Last season Diggs averaged 89.1-Yards Receiving per game with a 154 total targets on the season. In two games against the Jets, he was held to an average of 4 receptions per game and 65-Yards receiving. Diggs faded down the stretch last season, averaging under 67.5 receiving yards in four of the Bills last six games. Last season the Jets defense ranked 3rd in passing yards allowed at 189.4YPG. Buffalo averaged 261.4-Passing Yards Per Game a year ago which was 5th best in the NFL. In the two games against this Jets defense last year, Allen and Bills threw for just 352-total yards.  

OVER 35.5 RUSHING YARDS – BUFFALO BILLS QB JOSH ALLEN – Allen was 2nd on the Bills team last year in rushing at 762 total rushing yards. That’s an average of 47.6-Rushing Yards Per Game. He has rushed for over 760-Yards in each of the last two seasons. Against a Jets defense that is extremely tough to pass on, it should lead to more rushing opportunities for Allen when his receivers are covered downfield. In the two games against this Jets D a year ago he rushed for 47 and 86 yards respectively.

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NFL FREE BET | SEPT 10TH | Jags vs. Colts

ASA FREE NFL PREDICTION on the Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Indianapolis Colts, Sunday Sept 10th 2023

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS TEAM TOTAL – UNDER 20.5 POINTS

The Colts offense is in trouble! They are starting rookie QB Richardson out of Florida who only started 13 games with the Gators. It would be much easier for Richardson if he had RB Taylor in the backfield to take pressure off the passing game. Taylor led the league in rushing yards in 2021 but demanded a trade before the season and is now on the PUP list and out for four games. Indianapolis averaged just 17PPG last season which ranked 30th in the league. On average, it took them 18.3 yards gained to score 1-point which was also 30th. The Colts lacked explosiveness too with an offense that averaged only 4.8-Yards Per Play which was again 30th. The Jags made huge strides defensively last season allowing just 21.4PPG compared to 26.9PPG they gave up the season before. Jacksonville allowed 13.1-Yards per Point in 2021 (30th) and improved to 16.4-Yards Per Point allowed in 2022. It is going to be a long season for the Colts and we don’t see them scoring more than 20-points in this opener.

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