Tag: nfl predictions

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NFL Bears vs Chargers prediction – Oct 29th

ASA play on UNDER 46.5 POINTS Chicago Bears @ LA Chargers – 8:20PM ET

Despite money and tickets flowing in on the Over in this game the line has trended down from 48 and currently sits at 46.5. Scoring continues to be down in the NFL this season with games averaging 43.4PPG. Unders are hitting at a near 60% this season and the TV night games have been especially profitable with the Under. The Bears are coming off a misleading final last week when they scored 30 points on just 320 total yards of offense. That 10.7 yards per point is significantly better than the 15.2YPPT they averaged going into last week’s game. Chicago kept their game plan very simple for QB Bagent with most throws being check downs. The Bears will try and rely on their running game here that is 5th in the league in rushing yards per game, 7th in attempts and 5th in yards per rush. Chicago’s defense has shown improvement as they allowed an average of 34.5PPG in their first four games of the season and just 17PPG in their last three. The Chargers offense has managed just 24, 17 and 17 points in their last three games and speculation is that Herbert’s finger on his throwing hand is a problem for the young QB. Los Angeles is averaging just 15.2 yards per point which is below league average and have had problems sustain drives as evidenced by their 3rd down conversion rate of 39.02% which is 19th in the league. Bet Under here.

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Free Bet – Air Force vs. Colorado State – Oct 28th

ASA play on: #162 Colorado State +14 vs. Air Force, 7:00PM ET

We are on the home dog here with the Rams plus the points in this rivalry as our free bet. The points are a premium here with the oddsmakers projecting around 46 total points being scored. Air Force has played three road games with wins at 0-8 Sam Houston State, at 3-5 San Jose State and 3-4 Navy. The Falcons have put up some impressive offensive numbers, but they’ve come against Utah State, San Jose State, San Diego State who all rank 91st or worse in total defense and Wyoming who is 73rd. Granted, Colorado State is bad defensively, one of the worst in college football, but they have given up the majority of their yards via the pass at 308 passing yards per game allowed. The Rams actually allow just 3.9 yards per rush which is around the national average. Air Force relies heavily on their running game which is best in the nation in rushing yards per game at 306. Colorado State is coming off a close loss against an improved 6-1 UNLV team where they managed 5.8 yards per play while allowing 5.9YPP. The Falcons are coming off a game against the option Naval Academy and now must travel to CSU to face an entirely different offense. The Rams complete 63.7% of their pass attempts which is 37th best in college football and complete 28.6 pass attempts per game for 336.4YPG which is 6th most in CFB. Last year the Falcons were favored by 22-points at home and won by 12. They are clearly over-valued here so let’s grab the live home dog with backdoor ability as today’s free bet.

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Commanders vs Giants prediction – Oct 22nd

NFL FREE BET #462 ASA PLAY ON NY Giants +3 over Washington Commanders, Sunday at 1 PM ET

Giants are coming off a solid outing @ Buffalo giving the Bills all they could handle last week in a 14-9 loss.  NY outgained Buffalo in the game and had the ball 1st and goal at the Bills 1 yard line with a chance to win in the final seconds.  Veteran QB Tyrod Taylor had a solid outing and it looks like he’ll be under center again today as Daniel Jones recovers from an injury.  Washington won @ Atlanta last week but they were outplayed dramatically in the stats.  In that win the Commanders were -13 first downs, outgained 402 to 197, and 5.1 to 3.9 on a YPP basis.  They won the turnover battle 3 to 0 which was the difference in the game.  The Giants have covered 7 of the last 9 in this series and as a dog vs Washington they’ve covered 4 of the last 5.  We like the line value here as in their only 2 home games this year NYG was a 3 point dog vs Dallas and a 2.5 point dog vs Seattle, 2 teams ranked 10th and 11th per DVOA and now they are getting the same number vs a Washington team ranked 24th per DVOA.  We’re catching the Giants at the bottom of the market here but off a solid outing vs a high level team vs an overvalued Washington team.  Take the points.

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Seahawks vs Bengals Prediction – Sunday, Oct 15th 2023

ASA free bet on: #257/258 OVER 45 Seattle Seahawks at Cincinnati Bengals, Sunday 1PM ET

You should check the weather before betting this Over, but if the wind isn’t as bad as they are predicting this O/U number will move up dramatically. We have an opportunity to buy low here on the Bengals offense that has underachieved this season prior to last week’s game against the Cardinals. This Cincinnati offense is essentially the same unit that has been top 9 in scoring for two straight seasons at over 25.7PPG. QB Burrows was injured early this season, but he looked much better last week against the Cards throwing for 317 yards with 3 TD’s to 1 INT. He was also willing to push the ball down field completing 8 of 12 passes of 10+ yards. The Seahawks pass defense allows opposing QB’s to complete 68.5% of their pass attempts (25th), give up 6.8 yards per pass attempt (21st) and 280 passing yards per game which is 30th. Those numbers come despite facing Carolina and the Giants who have 2 of the three worst offenses in terms of DVOA in the league. In their other two games the Seahawks allowed the Rams/Stafford to throw for 334 yards and the Lions/Goff to complete 28/35 passes for 323 yards. Offensively we expect the Seahawks to have success against this Bengals defense and put up plenty of points on their own. Seattle is 13th in yards per rush at 4.4, the Bengals allow 5.3YPC (30th). Seattle averages 5.6YPP, Cincinnati gives up 5.9YPP (25th). The Hawks are averaging 27.8PPG on the year,6th most and face a Bengals D giving up 22.8PPG (20th). This game should be a back-and-forth affair with plenty of points by both teams.

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NFL free pick Broncos vs Chiefs – Oct 12th 2023

ASA’s DENVER BRONCOS vs KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-10.5) [47]

NFL PLAYER PROP BETS – OVER 26.5 RUSHING + RECEIVING YARDS – Jerick McKinnon – KC Chiefs

Denver’s defense is historically bad. Worse than the 2017 Browns team that went 0-16 and the 2008 Lions team that also went 0-16 through the first 5 games of the season.

The Broncos defense is allowing 187 rushing yards per game to opponents (32nd)

They give up 5.9 yards per rush attempt (32nd) and own the worst D in the league when it comes to defending running backs.

Kansas City is 13th in rushing attempts per game at 27.6, and 9th in average yards per rush attempt at 4.5.

We won’t get involved in the Chiefs featured running back Isiah Pacheco’s rushing props as his number tonight is 74.5 rushing yards which is significantly higher than what his rushing O/U has been all season in the low to mid-50’s.

What we will be on though is OVER 26.5 RUSHING + RECEIVING YARDS for Jerick McKinnon. He has totaled 22+ rushing/receiving yards in 3 of the Chiefs last four games. In fact, he’s had 18 or more receiving yards alone in 3 of his last four games. He’s been targeted by Mahomes 8 total times in the past four weeks and should get his fair share of looks in this game. We also like McKinnon anytime TD prop at +320.

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