Tag: nfl predictions

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NFC East Prediction | Eagles Under 10.5 Wins | By ASA

ASA’s NFC EAST WIN TOTAL PROJECTION

Philadelphia Eagles – UNDER 10.5 Wins (+110)

The Eagles fell off a cliff at the end of last season losing 5 of their last 6 regular season games before getting blasted 32-9 in the Playoffs by the Tampa Bay Bucs.  That just might be a signal of things to come this season. 

When sifting through their schedule last year you’ll also notice that a number of the Eagles wins could have gone either way.  In fact, 8 of their 11 wins came by 8 points or fewer and historically those numbers are tough to repeat the following season.  Since 2001 there have been 23 teams that finished the regular season with 8 or more wins by one score or less and in the following season 19 of those teams finished with a worse record. 

Philly lost both their offensive and defensive coordinators for the 2nd straight season which is never a good thing for continuity. 

Despite their 11-6 record last year, Philly was just +5 on the season in point differential and they were outgained in total yardage which made their expected win total just 8.5. 

QB Hurts numbers fell off big time last season as he threw 15 interceptions, after throwing 18 his first 3 seasons combined, and his QBR went from top 5 in 2022 to middle of the pack in 2023. 

The defense has a lot of work to do as well after finishing in the bottom 8 in YPG, YPP, and PPG allowed last season.  Historically, the last 8 times Philadelphia’s win total has been posted at 10 or higher, they’ve gone Under 7 times.  This team should be solid, but they are not an 11 win team in our opinion.    

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NFL Rookie of the Year Prediction | By ASA | 8-26-24

NFL ROOKIE OF THE YEAR – +500 QB JAYDEN DANIELS – WASHINGTON COMMANDERS

The Washington Commanders are entering the 2024 season with a renewed sense of optimism, driven by the arrival of rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels and the fresh leadership of head coach Dan Quinn and offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury. Daniels, a dynamic dual-threat quarterback out of LSU, was a highly-touted prospect in the 2024 NFL Draft, and the Commanders are betting on his talent to be the future of the franchise. We like a future bet on Daniels to win NFL Rookie of the Year.

Daniels brings a unique blend of athleticism, arm strength, and poise to Washington’s offense. Known for his ability to extend plays with his legs and make accurate throws on the run, Daniels is expected to add a new dimension to the Commanders’ attack. His transition to the NFL will be guided by Kingsbury, who has a proven track record of developing young quarterbacks and creating high-powered offenses. Kingsbury’s system, known for its quick tempo and emphasis on spreading the field, should complement Daniels’ skill set and allow him to thrive early in his career.

Head coach Dan Quinn, known for his defensive prowess, brings a championship pedigree to Washington, having previously led the Atlanta Falcons to a Super Bowl appearance. While Quinn’s expertise lies on the defensive side of the ball, his leadership and experience will be crucial in shaping the overall culture and identity of the team.

The Commanders’ offense will feature playmakers like wide receiver Terry McLaurin and running back Brian Robinson Jr., providing Daniels with reliable targets and a solid run game to lean on. The offensive line, bolstered by key additions in the offseason, will need to give Daniels the protection he needs to make plays and develop as a rookie.

While the learning curve for Daniels will be steep, the combination of his raw talent, Kingsbury’s offensive creativity, and Quinn’s steady hand could set the stage for an exciting new era in Washington. The 2024 season will be a crucial year of development for Daniels and the Commanders, with the potential to lay the foundation for future success. With the starting QB job handed to Daniels we like his odds at +500 to be Rookie of the Year.

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AFC Championship Bet | Cincinnati Bengals 9-1 odds | By Point Train

AFC Champions Longshot: Cincinnati Bengals +900 – By Point Train Consulting

Similar to our NFC prediction about the Falcons, scheduling plays a crucial role in our longshot pick for the AFC Champion, the Cincinnati Bengals. According to our metrics, the Bengals will face the 5th easiest schedule this season, a stark contrast to the tough schedule they had last year. Despite QB Joe Burrow being less than 100% for much of the season, the Bengals still managed to secure a 9-8 SU record. In 2023, they ranked 11th in total DVOA with an average point differential of -1.1 PPG.

We believe this season’s Bengals could resemble the 2022 team that went 12-4 SU in the regular season and narrowly lost to the Chiefs 20-23 in the AFC Championship game. That year, the Bengals were 4th in offensive DVOA and 7th in defensive DVOA. In today’s NFL, where offense reigns supreme, the Bengals have the firepower to challenge the Chiefs for the AFC title. With QB Burrow back from injury and two top-tier WRs in Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, the Bengals’ offense is a formidable force. Zack Moss, who rushed for 794 yards with the Colts last season, will take charge in the backfield.

While the Bengals’ defense regressed in 2023, much of that can be attributed to their tough schedule, with 11 of their 17 games against teams in the top half of the league in scoring. Despite this, they allowed just 22.6 PPG, below the combined average of 25.1 PPG of the league’s top 15 teams. Cincinnati made a few significant improvements on the defensive side of the football including a revamped secondary and should be a top 13 unit in 2024.

The Bengals’ primary challenge in winning the AFC North will be the Ravens, who won 13 games last season under John Harbaugh. However, within the division, both the Browns and Steelers have significant quarterback concerns and may struggle to maintain winning records. While the Chiefs, Bills, and Dolphins are serious contenders, the Bengals can match their offensive prowess if Burrow stays healthy. The Bengals have a legitimate shot at representing the AFC in the Super Bowl.

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NFL Free Bet | Bengals vs Buccaneers Prediction | Aug 10th

#126 ASA FREE PLAY ON Cincinnati Bengals -6 over Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Saturday at 7 PM ET

This line has jumped from Cincinnati -3 to -6 this week and for good reason.  The Bengals are approaching this preseason much differently than they have the last few years. 

Head Coach Zac Taylor has seen his team struggle early in the regular season after he decided to sit most of his starters the last few years in the preseason.  Last year Cincy lost 3 of their first 4 regular season games and in 2022 they started 0-2.  Taylor has decided to take a different approach and his starters will all play on Saturday, including QB Burrow.

Once Burrow exits, the Bengals will go with Jake Browning who started 7 games last year and threw for 2,000 yards.  Tampa will sit all of their starters in this game according to head coach Todd Bowles. 

The Bucs will start Kyle Trask under center (10 career pass attempts) so big advantage to the Bengals in this game at QB.  While the Tampa starters will sit this one out, Bowles mentioned all of the rookies will play and potentially a lot. 

Reading between the lines this week, it sounds as if Cincinnati wants to win this game after winning just 1 preseason game the last 2 years.  We’ll call for the Bengals to win by at least a TD at home on Saturday.      

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NFL Prediction | NFC Champions | Atlanta Falcons

By Point Train Consulting

NFL longshot – NFC Champions – Atlanta Falcons +1300

The schedule plays an important role here for the Falcons as they face one of, if not the easiest schedule in the NFL this season. Atlanta was 7-10 last season with six of those losses coming in one score games. Despite the losing record the Falcons had an average differential of minus -3.1PPG over the course of entire season.

The addition of QB Kirk Cousins was a huge acquisition in the offseason and should be the missing link for the Falcons offense that ranked 22nd in the NFL in passing yards per game last season and 28th in completion percentage. Before getting injured, Cousins, was 216 of 311 passing (70%) for 2,331 yards with 18 TD’s to 5 INT’s and those types of numbers will translate to wins in the NFC. The Falcons have our 5th best rated offensive line this season which should provide a clean pocket for Cousins and open running lanes for Bijan Robinson, who rushed for over 970 yards in 2023.

Defensively the Falcons were solid a year ago ranking 10th in Yards Allowed p/Game overall, 7th in Yards p/Play allowed at 5.0Y.P.P.L. Atlanta’s defense did a great job of getting off the field ranking 4th in 3rd down conversion allowed p/Game at 4.5.

The Falcons should win the NFC South and have a very favorable overall record at the end of the regular season. The teams that are favored over the Falcons to come out of the NFC are the: 49ers (+250), Lions (+550), Eagles (+700), Cowboys (+700) and Packers (+800) and each of those teams could face serious obstacles this season. The Niners face a difficult schedule and the NFC West should be better this season so a repeat Super Bowl bid may be tough for San Francisco. The Lions should see a regression in their win total after a surprise season a year ago and a horrific defense. The Cowboys will do Cowboys thing again and Green Bay may be fool’s gold with a overrated QB in Jordan Love. The Eagles are the biggest threat in the NFC in our opinion.

Atlanta could conceivably end up being the host in the NFC Championship game and if they get to that point, we will have a great opportunity to bet back if need be. At +1300 this is a very viable option for a future bet on the Atlanta Falcons.

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