Tag: nfl predictions

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NFL Playoff Future Bet – Passing Leaders – Point Train Consulting

NFL Playoff Futures Bets to Make – By Point Train Consulting

Odds offered at Draftkings.com

MOST PASSING YARDS IN THE PLAYOFFS

NFC QUARTERBACKS

Dak Prescott +360

Brock Purdy +700

Jared Goff +750

Baker Mayfield +1600

Jalen Hurts +1700

Matt Stafford +2200

Jordan Love +3000

AFC QUARTERBACKS

Josh Allen +500

Patrick Mahomes +550

Lamar Jackson +700

Tua Tagovaliloa +950

Joe Flacco +1200

CJ Stroud +2000

Mason Rudolph +3500

First off you have to project who will play the most games. Clearly the 49ers and Ravens, barring a significant injury, will be favored in every game up until the Super Bowl.  That makes those two teams likely to play three games each as both get a bye in the first round of the playoffs. Obviously, if a team that is playing this weekend advances to the Super Bowl, those quarterbacks will have an added game to their total passing stats resume.

Of the playoff teams, Miami averaged the most passing yards per game on the season followed by Detroit, Dallas, San Francisco, Kansas City, Houston, Buffalo, Rams, Packers, Eagles, Buccaneers, Browns, Ravens and the Steelers. The teams that averaged the most passing attempts in order were: Chiefs, Browns, Cowboys, Lions, Texans, Rams, Packers, Bills, Bucs, Dolphins, Eagles, Steelers, Ravens, 49ers.

Our focus immediately goes to the two favorites in the 49ers and Ravens. Baltimore is clearly a run first team as they average the most rushing attempts per game at 31.8 and they rank down the list in passing yards per game and attempts.  In other words, we are not betting on Lamar Jackson.

San Francisco clearly runs a lot too at 29.4 attempts per game, but Purdy also slings it for an average of 257.9 yards per game which is 4th most in the league. The Niners also tend to hit big passing plays as they average 13-yards per completion which is 1st in the league.

At +700 and with the likely scenario that the 49ers play three games we have to put a bet on him at these odds.

We will hedge that wager with a bet on the favorite Dak Prescott. The Cowboys face the Packers in Game 1 and the 27th overall ranked DVOA defense. Granted the Packers rank 9th in passing yards per game allowed but they are 17th in completion percentage against and 18th in yards per completion. Dallas will benefit from playing the first two rounds of the playoffs at home in a Dome and the third game in San Francisco in what should be good conditions. The Cowboys averaged the 3rd most passing yards per game at 258.6, but at home that average improved to 305YPG, best in the NFL.

At +360 we have to invest in Dak Prescott to have the most playoff passing yards.

You can essentially rule out the contenders in the AFC as they are likely going to be playing outdoors in potentially adverse conditions.

Of course, if Dallas and San Francisco get upset in the early rounds none of this matters but the odds are on our side that these two teams play three games each.

Brock Purdy +700

Dak Prescott +360

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NFL free bet | Vikings vs Bengals prediction | December 16

ASA’s FREE NFL play on UNDER 40.5 Minnesota Vikings at Cincinnati Bengals, Saturday 1PM ET

NFL free bet from ASA on Saturday, December 16th. The Bengals w/Jake Browning under center scoring-fest is about to come crashing back down to earth this week when he faces this Vikings defense. Minnesota just pitched a shutout in Las Vegas and has allowed 12 total points in the past two games. The Vikings defense has allowed 19 or less points in 7 of their last ten games. Minnesota ranks 10th in total yards per game allowed, 8th in yards per play allowed, 5th against the run and allows the 14th least passing yards per game. In their last three games the Vikes defense is giving up just 4.7 yards per play. Browning and the Bengals put up 34-points against the Colts and Jaguars in the past two weeks but neither of those two defenses are as good as the one they’ll face on Saturday. The Bengals defense has been atrocious this season but the Vikings with QB Mullins won’t be able to exploit that weakness. It won’t help that the Vikings will be without RB Mattison who is out here. In their last three games the Vikings are averaging just 4.5YPP and averaging 1-point scored for every 26 yards gained. The Bengals are allowing 6.5YPP on the season but have showed improvement in their last 3 games allowing just 5.5YPP. We would love to see this line go to 41 for a better number but will make a small wager or free NFL bet on Under 40.5.

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Free NFL bet | Jaguars vs Texans prediction | Nov 26th 2023

ASA play on: UNDER 48 Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans – 12:00 PM CT

This is a big game for the potential winner in the AFC South with the Jags holding a 1-game lead in the standings, but the Texans beat the Jags earlier in the season. The first meeting had a total of 43.5 points and finished with 54 points being scored in a 37-17 Texans win. There were several big plays in the game with an 85-kick return for a TD along with a 68-yards touchdown pass. There was also a blocked FG that turned into great field position and a quick score for Houston. Eliminate a few of those outlier plays and that came stays Under the total of 43.5 points. With the added value in this O/U number we have to bet Under. Going back to September 17th we find that games involving Jacksonville have totaled 48 or less points 6 out of nine games. Houston and their opponents have totaled less than 48 points in 6 of their ten games and again, one of those Overs came when they played this Jags team and they had several unusual scoring plays. Three of the last four meetings between these two AFC South teams has resulted in 46 or less points.

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NFL Free Bet | 6-Point Teaser | Ravens + Titans

NFL 6-POINT TEASER BET – Baltimore Ravens -.5 / Tennessee Titans +8.5

Baltimore is the #1 ranked DVOA team in the NFL with the 4th ranked offense and 2nd ranked defense and have the best overall scoring differential in the NFL at +12.8PPG.

The Ravens have been even better at home with an average +/- of +19.8PPG.

In their last two home games the Ravens have beaten two upper echelon teams from the NFC the Seahawks and Lions by a combined 75-9.

Cleveland has a top tier defense ranked #1 in DVOA but the offense has struggled with a ranking of 28th.

The Browns average just 4.6YPP on the season while allowing 4.3 for a net differential of +0.3.

In comparison, The Ravens average 5.7YPP on offense and allow just 4.1YPP for net differential of +1.6YPP.

These two teams met earlier in the season in Cleveland with the Ravens winning 28-3 with a +130 yardage advantage.

We like the Ravens to win.

The second part of this two team 6PT Teaser leg is on Tennessee + over a TD against Tampa Bay.

Tennessee with coach Vrabel have been outstanding as an underdog with a 29-19-1 ATS record or 60.4%.

Conversely, Tampa Bay as a favorite is just 5-10-1 ATS their last 16 in that role.

Tampa Bay has an average Margin of Victory of -1.1PPG. Tennessee has a negative differential of -1.5PPG.

The Titans are 3-5 SU on the season but only one of those losses have been by more than 9-points.

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FREE NFL BET – Nov 5th – Rams vs Packers prediction

ASA PLAY ON: UNDER 19.5 TOTAL POINTS 1ST HALF – RAMS @ PACKERS 1PM ET

The Packers’ first half struggles are well documented as they are one of the slowest starting teams in the NFL. Going in reverse order the Packers first half points have been: 3, 0, 3, 3 and 0 in their past five games. In their first two teams they scored 10 and 9-points so even those games weren’t high scoring. The Packers average just 4.1PPG in the 1st half which is lowest in the league. The Rams are below average in 1st half scoring at 11PPG and we can expect a regression with Brett Rypien starting for the injured Matt Stafford. We don’t see these two teams getting to 20-points in the first half.

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