Tag: nfl predictions

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NFL Prediction | NY Jets vs SF 49ers Preview | Sept 9 2024

New York Jets vs. San Francisco 49ers Betting Preview for Monday Night Football – By ASA

NFL prediction Jets vs 49ers Game Overview: The NFL kicks off its 2024 season with a compelling matchup as the New York Jets visit the San Francisco 49ers on Monday Night Football. This game not only marks the beginning of the season but also the return of Aaron Rodgers for the Jets, aiming to erase the memory of last year’s four-snap season due to injury.

Betting Lines:

Spread: 49ers -4.5

Over/Under: 43.5 points

Moneyline: 49ers -198, Jets +165

Key Insights:

Public and Sharp Money: There’s significant public money on the 49ers, but sharp money has influenced the line movement towards the Jets, with the line movement from Jets +6 to +4.5

Injury Concerns: Christian McCaffrey’s health status for the 49ers is pivotal. If he plays, even not at 100%, his presence could significantly affect the game’s dynamics, potentially drawing defensive attention and opening up plays for other receivers like George Kittle. McCaffrey totaled over 2,000 total yards combined rushing and receiving in 2023.

Aaron Rodgers’ Return: Rodgers’ return adds an unpredictable element. His last full season showcased his ability to make big throws, which could challenge the 49ers’ defense, especially if the Jets’ young receiving corps steps up. The Jets RB Breece Hall rushed for 994 yards in 2023 at a 4.5-yards per carry average.

Defensive Matchup: The 49ers’ defense, despite some changes, remains formidable. However, the Jets’ defense, known for its tenacity, might give even the efficient Brock Purdy a run for his money. The Jets had the #3 rated DVOA defense a year ago, the 49ers were 4th.

Player Props:

George Kittle Over 42.5 Receiving Yards: Given his performance history and the matchup, this could be a safe bet if McCaffrey’s involvement is limited. Kittle averaged 60-receiving yards per game in 2023 and the Jets D allowed TE’s to average 48.5 receiving YPG.

Jake Moody Over 1.5 Field Goals: The Jets’ defense might force field goal attempts, making this a reasonable bet. Moody was 21/25 last season on FG’s and has range, hitting 2/3 from 50+ yards.

Jets vs 49ers prediction Conclusion: This game presents a unique betting opportunity due to Rodgers’ return and the 49ers’ position post-Super Bowl. Bettors should watch closely for any last-minute updates on McCaffrey’s status, as his participation could sway the game’s flow significantly.

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Ravens vs Chiefs Preview | Sept 5th 2024 | By ASA

ASA breaks down the Ravens vs Chiefs game Thursday, Sept 5th 2024

Game Preview: Baltimore Ravens vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Date: Thursday, September 4, 2024

Kickoff: 8:20 PM EDT

Location: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO

Broadcast: NBC, Peacock, Universo

BetMGM NFL Odds: Chiefs by 3

Series Record: Chiefs lead 8-5

Last Meeting: Chiefs won 17-10 in the AFC Championship game on January 28, 2024, in Baltimore.

The Matchup:

The NFL season kicks off with a blockbuster game as the Baltimore Ravens visit the Kansas City Chiefs in a rematch of last season’s AFC Championship game. This contest not only opens the season but also reignites a rivalry that has seen the Chiefs dominate recent encounters, winning five of the last six games against the Ravens.

Chiefs’ Perspective:

  • Patrick Mahomes, the reigning Super Bowl MVP, will be looking to start the season with a bang. His ability to extend plays and find open receivers, especially Travis Kelce, who’s on the cusp of breaking franchise records, could be crucial.
  • The Chiefs’ defense, while missing key players like L’Jarius Sneed and Charles Omenihu, will face a stern test against the Ravens’ multifaceted offense. However, with Chris Jones and George Karlaftis III leading the pass rush, they aim to disrupt Lamar Jackson.

Ravens’ Perspective:

  • Lamar Jackson, a two-time MVP, will be keen to prove his worth against Mahomes in what’s being billed as a historic matchup of multiple MVP winners in Week 1. His dual-threat capabilities, combined with the addition of RB Derrick Henry, could make the Ravens’ offense unpredictable.
  • Defensively, the Ravens led the league in sacks last season with 3.3 per game. With Roquan Smith and Kyle Hamilton anchoring the defense, they’ll look to contain Mahomes and limit the Chiefs’ explosive plays.

Key Matchups:

  • Lamar Jackson vs. Chiefs’ Defense: Can Jackson’s mobility and arm evade the Chiefs’ pass rush and find his receivers?
  • Patrick Mahomes vs. Ravens’ Defense: Will Mahomes’ magic find a way through one of the NFL’s stingiest defenses?
  • Ravens’ Run Game vs. Chiefs’ Run Defense: The Ravens’ ground attack against a Chiefs defense that struggled against the run last season.

Key Injuries and Absences:

  • Chiefs: WR Marquise Brown, RB Clyde-Edwards-Helaire, DE BJ Thompson, DE Charles Omenihu,
  • Ravens: LB Adisa Isaac, RB Rasheen Ali

What to Watch For:

  • **Can the Ravens’ defense replicate their AFC Championship performance and keep Mahomes in check?
  • **Will the Chiefs’ offensive line hold up against the Ravens’ formidable pass rush?
  • **The battle of the tight ends: Mark Andrews vs. Travis Kelce, both looking to make significant impacts.

This game isn’t just about bragging rights for the next season; it’s a statement game for both teams. The Ravens, with a chip on their shoulder after the AFC Championship loss, will look to prove they’re the team to beat in the AFC. Conversely, the Chiefs, under Andy Reid, aim to show that their championship window remains wide open. Expect a high-intensity, high-stakes game that could set the tone for both teams’ seasons.

This preview encapsulates the key elements of the game based on the information provided, focusing on player matchups, team dynamics, and the significance of the game in the context of the season opener.

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NFL MVP Odds | A QB longshot | 9-3-24 | By ASA

NFL MVP Odds – QB Jared Goff Detroit Lions +$2500 – By ASA

Jared Goff’s odds for winning the NFL MVP in 2024 have been a topic of interest among sports analysts and bettors, reflecting a mix of skepticism and optimism based on his performance trajectory and the Lions’ team success. At a higher price point we like Goff as a potential longshot to win the MVP in 2024.

Have you looked at the Lions schedule this season? Detroit and QB Goff will play in a controlled environment or Dome in 14 of their seventeen games this season. Goff and the Lions were 9-3 SU when playing in a Dome last season. Goff threw for over 4,400 yards in 2022 with 29 TD’s to 7 INT’s in leading Detroit to a 9-8 record. Last season, Goff threw for 4,575 yards (2nd most in league) with a 30/12 TD/INT ration in helping the Lions for a 14-6 record and a loss in the NFC Championship game.

Goff’s career statistics in domes show a higher completion percentage, better passer rating, and a more favorable touchdown to interception ratio. When playing indoors, Goff has a 67.4% completion rate, with 92 touchdowns and 32 interceptions over 55 games.

Conversely, his outdoor games statistics are less impressive, with a completion percentage around 62.2%, 101 touchdowns, and 52 interceptions across 71 games.

Goff’s MVP odds have been listed at various points between +2200 and +2500, indicating he’s seen as a dark horse candidate but with significant value for bettors if he performs exceptionally.

Goff has shown improvement and consistency, leading the Lions to two straight winning seasons. His stats from previous seasons, like throwing for over 4,400 yards with a high completion percentage and a favorable touchdown to interception ratio, underline his capability at the helm of an offense. The Lions’ success, particularly if they secure a high seed in the playoffs, could significantly boost Goff’s MVP case, given the award’s tendency to favor quarterbacks from top-seeded teams.

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NFC East Prediction | Eagles Under 10.5 Wins | By ASA

ASA’s NFC EAST WIN TOTAL PROJECTION

Philadelphia Eagles – UNDER 10.5 Wins (+110)

The Eagles fell off a cliff at the end of last season losing 5 of their last 6 regular season games before getting blasted 32-9 in the Playoffs by the Tampa Bay Bucs.  That just might be a signal of things to come this season. 

When sifting through their schedule last year you’ll also notice that a number of the Eagles wins could have gone either way.  In fact, 8 of their 11 wins came by 8 points or fewer and historically those numbers are tough to repeat the following season.  Since 2001 there have been 23 teams that finished the regular season with 8 or more wins by one score or less and in the following season 19 of those teams finished with a worse record. 

Philly lost both their offensive and defensive coordinators for the 2nd straight season which is never a good thing for continuity. 

Despite their 11-6 record last year, Philly was just +5 on the season in point differential and they were outgained in total yardage which made their expected win total just 8.5. 

QB Hurts numbers fell off big time last season as he threw 15 interceptions, after throwing 18 his first 3 seasons combined, and his QBR went from top 5 in 2022 to middle of the pack in 2023. 

The defense has a lot of work to do as well after finishing in the bottom 8 in YPG, YPP, and PPG allowed last season.  Historically, the last 8 times Philadelphia’s win total has been posted at 10 or higher, they’ve gone Under 7 times.  This team should be solid, but they are not an 11 win team in our opinion.    

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NFL Rookie of the Year Prediction | By ASA | 8-26-24

NFL ROOKIE OF THE YEAR – +500 QB JAYDEN DANIELS – WASHINGTON COMMANDERS

The Washington Commanders are entering the 2024 season with a renewed sense of optimism, driven by the arrival of rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels and the fresh leadership of head coach Dan Quinn and offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury. Daniels, a dynamic dual-threat quarterback out of LSU, was a highly-touted prospect in the 2024 NFL Draft, and the Commanders are betting on his talent to be the future of the franchise. We like a future bet on Daniels to win NFL Rookie of the Year.

Daniels brings a unique blend of athleticism, arm strength, and poise to Washington’s offense. Known for his ability to extend plays with his legs and make accurate throws on the run, Daniels is expected to add a new dimension to the Commanders’ attack. His transition to the NFL will be guided by Kingsbury, who has a proven track record of developing young quarterbacks and creating high-powered offenses. Kingsbury’s system, known for its quick tempo and emphasis on spreading the field, should complement Daniels’ skill set and allow him to thrive early in his career.

Head coach Dan Quinn, known for his defensive prowess, brings a championship pedigree to Washington, having previously led the Atlanta Falcons to a Super Bowl appearance. While Quinn’s expertise lies on the defensive side of the ball, his leadership and experience will be crucial in shaping the overall culture and identity of the team.

The Commanders’ offense will feature playmakers like wide receiver Terry McLaurin and running back Brian Robinson Jr., providing Daniels with reliable targets and a solid run game to lean on. The offensive line, bolstered by key additions in the offseason, will need to give Daniels the protection he needs to make plays and develop as a rookie.

While the learning curve for Daniels will be steep, the combination of his raw talent, Kingsbury’s offensive creativity, and Quinn’s steady hand could set the stage for an exciting new era in Washington. The 2024 season will be a crucial year of development for Daniels and the Commanders, with the potential to lay the foundation for future success. With the starting QB job handed to Daniels we like his odds at +500 to be Rookie of the Year.

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