Tag: nfl predictions

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POINT TRAIN WAGER – Appalachian State @ Texas A&M – Sat, 3:30PM ET

Point Train wager or free pick OVER 54-point Saturday, September 10th 2022

  • This is one of those game that one of the two teams could eclipse the total number by themselves. Did you watch Appalachian State’s defense last week versus North Carolina?
  • If you missed it UNC put up 567 yards of offense on 7.98 yards per play and 63-points.
  • App State was able to put 61-points up themselves along with 649 total yards of offense.
  • Texas A&M was 70th a year ago in total offense with 386.8YPG but that also came against a tough SEC slate of games.
  • The Aggies averaged 14.2 Yards Per Point which was 56th in the country.
  • Granted, A&M has one of the best defenses in college football, but we won’t need many points out of App State for this game to go OVER the number.
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ASA Players Prop Bills vs. Rams – Sept 8th

ASA player prop – OVER 3.5 RECEPTIONS – BUFFALO BILLS WR Isaiah McKenzie +120

ASA players prop for the NFL opener on Thursday night is sleeper that the Books have whiffed on. Isaiah McKenzie is replacing Cole Beasley as the slot receiver for the Bills and should see plenty of action here. Beasley was Bills QB Josh Allen’s second favorite target behind Stefon Diggs (164 targets) with 112 targets which was 29th most in the NFL last season. The Bills were 7th in pass attempts per season a year ago and that philosophy remains the same even with a new O-coordinator in Ken Dorsey in Buffalo. The Rams were 4th in sacks a year ago so expect Allen to check down to the underneath routes which means McKenzie will get plenty of balls thrown his way in the opener. We like McKenzie to finish with 5 receptions in this showdown.

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​Point Train college football FREE OPINION PLAY Sept 3

​Mississippi State -16.5 vs. Memphis – 7:30PM ET – college football winner

  • The loss in line value (opened -12) is keeping us off this game as a rated wager but we still lean to the side of the Bulldogs.
  • Miss State was favored by 3-points at Memphis last year and lost 29-31 after a late game 2-point conversion failed. 
  • Mississippi State lost last year’s game despite outgaining the Tigers by 212 total yards. A fumble return for a touchdown and 94 yard punt return for a TD were the difference. 
  • The Bulldogs return a ton of their production from a year ago and rest assured they haven’t forgotten last year’s loss. 
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ASA NFL free pick Packers vs. Saints, Friday 8PM ET

NFL free pick Green Bay Packers -3 vs. New Orleans Saints

ASA has you covered with a free NFL pick on Friday evening when the Saints and Packers meet in Green Bay. The Packers offense looked much better than the Saints in the opening game, the defenses were about even. Green Bay’s offense will be the difference in this game.

The Packers had over 430-yards of total offense last week  at 6.6 YPPL against a very good 49ers defense. They turned the ball over too many times though which cost them dearly.  QB Jordan Love was 13/24 for 176 passing yards with 2 TD’s but also threw 3 INT’s. Two of those picks were basically on his WR’s. The running game was solid with RB Tyler Goodson who ran for 37 yards on 12 carries.

The Packer defense is going to be improved this season and had a tremendous week of practice against the Saints. Last week, Green Bay’s defense held the Niners to just 328 total yards (6.07 YPPL).

The Saints QB’s Ian Book and Andy Dalton didn’t show much in their preseason opener with 140 yards passing against a bad Texans defense in the opener.

The Saints running game struggled with 3.5-Yards per Carry or 130YDS on 37 touches. Overall, the Saints offense mustered just 270 total yards against a Texans defense that was 23rd in Defensive efficiency a year ago.

The Saints defense played well allowing just 275 total yards or 5.18YPPL last week but that came against a Texans offense that isn’t very good.

Packers head coach Matt LaFleur is on an 0-4 SU preseason run but should snap that streak with a winning football bet here.

This is the Packers only home game and they are off a loss in San Francisco so expect a little extra motivation here and a win by more than 3-points.

Be sure to check back here daily for your next NFL free pick by ASA.

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Point Train NFL Predictions – 2022-23

POINT TRAIN PREDICTIONS – all odds found at FanDuel

NFC WINNER – Green Bay Packers +500

The Packers have rolled to an impressive 39-10 regular season record the last 3 seasons which is the best mark in the NFL over that time period.  The defense should be one of the best in the NFL this year.  Green Bay is loaded in the defensive backfield and it could be argued they have three #1 corners with Alexander, Stokes and Douglas.  If they can shore up their run defense this will be tough to beat.  Because of that, the offense may not have to do as much as previous seasons.  QB Rodgers lost some key weapons in the passing game but others have stepped up in early practices and he tends to make all of his receivers look good.  The running game will be among the best in the league as well with the 2 headed monster of Jones and Dillon.  The Packers have won the NFC North in 8 of the last 11 seasons and we expect them to come out on top in the division again this year.  They’ve come up short in the NFC Championship game in 2 of the last 3 seasons and we think they have a great shot to get over the hump this year. 

NFC LONGER SHOT – New Orleans Saints +1700

The Saints roster is loaded with talent.  It’s one of the best in the NFL.  Their defense last year was very good finishing in the top 5 in PPG, YPG, and YPP allowed.  Their offensive weapons are as good as any in the league with RB Kamara (suspension possible?) and WR’s Thomas (back from injury), Landry and rookie Olave.  Can QB Jameis Winston play well enough to get this team to the playoffs?  That’s they only question we have with this team.  If Winston plays well, the Saints should be very good.  Tampa remains the only other formidable team in the division and New Orleans has owned the Bucs beating them 7 straight times in the regular season, including 4-0 facing Brady at QB. 

AFC WINNER – Buffalo Bills +400

The Bills have lost in the AFC Divisional or Championship game in each of the last 2 seasons.  Both losses were versus the Chiefs including a 42-36 setback in OT to get to the AFC Title game last season.  If you remember Buffalo took a 3 point lead in that game with just 13 seconds remaining the Chiefs were able to tie it in regulation and win in OT.  Despite coming up short, the Bills were the best team in the NFL for the entirety of the season.  They led the NFL in point differential and yards per play differential, both by a wide margin.  All 12 of their wins came by more than 10 points and 6 of their 7 losses came by a TD or less with 2 coming in OT.  The defense led the NFL allowing just 18 PPG and in yards per play allowed at just 4.8.  The offense should be great this year with QB Allen working with some high end weapons again this season.  If the offensive line can improve just a bit, watch out.  The AFC East is a fairly weak and the Bills are definitely the class of the division.  Buffalo finally gets to the Super Bowl this year.

AFC LONGER SHOT – Indianapolis Colts +1200

The Colts have the 3rd easiest schedule in the NFL this year and they sit in one of the weakest divisions in football, the AFC South.  Houston and Jacksonville are projected to be 2 of the worst teams in the NFL once again and Tennessee had the lowest point differential of any team that won their division.  Despite finishing 2nd last year, the Colts point differential was 21 points better than the Titans.  An upgrade at QB with Matt Ryan should help significantly as Wentz was a disaster last season.  We project Indianapolis to win the division this year and at 12/1 they are not a bad investment to win it all.

SUPER BOWL WINNER – Buffalo Bills +650