Tag: nfl predictions

Posted on by

NFL Player Props for Oct 9th

NFL Player Props for Week 5 in the NFL – ASA

Kenny Pickett Over 18.5 Rush Yards (-115)

Last week Pickett rushed for 15 yards on 6 carries, also punching in 2 rushing touchdowns. Additionally, the rookie from Pitt threw 3 Ints on his 13 pass attempts. With a full week of first team reps, Pickett will lead the Steelers into Buffalo for a baptism by fire. Mike Tomlin will pull out all the stops to get his team off a 3 game losing streak, including utilizing his QBs running ability to limit turnovers. Pickett will need to scramble regularly in a game that the Steelers should be playing from behind. 

Cooper Kupp Over 8.5 Recs (-105)

Kupp is arguably the best WR in football currently, averaging 10.5 receptions per game so far this year. Sean McVay schemes Kupp open and Matthew Stafford rarely looks to go elsewhere with the ball. Dallas has been stingy against the pass, ranking 6th in pass yards per game in 2022. However, Kupp should continue to see massive volume in the short and intermediate route concepts that will allow the Rams to get the ball out quick. 

DJ Moore Under 50.5 Rec Yards (-115)

The Panthers offense has been abysmal this year, ranking dead last in yards per game. Everyone thought Baker Mayfield would be an upgrade over Sam Darnold, but we’ve seen much of the same. DJ Moore is averaging 34.5 yards per game, and is fresh off an uninspiring 6 for 50 against the Cardinals depleted secondary. San Francisco’s defense ranks first in both sacks and points allowed, making for a long afternoon for Carolina’s offense.   

Posted on by

Free NFL play Bills vs. Ravens prediction – Oct 2

#257/258 ASA PLAY ON Over 50 Points – Buffalo Bills vs Baltimore Ravens, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

Bills total vs Miami closed 54 or 55 and we were on that Over.  This week it’s just 51 when our numbers have it similar to last week’s closing total.  The Bills are the constant here so comparing Miami with Baltimore, the Ravens offense leads NFL in scoring (33 ppg) and efficiency scoring 1 point for every 11.5 yards gained and YPP at 6.9.  Those numbers are better than Miami’s offense.  The Ravens defense ranks 31st in YPP allowed 6.7, last in pass defense at 353 YPG (next worst is 297 YPG allowed), AND they allowed 68 points last 2 weeks vs Miami & New England.  After scoring 72 points in their first 2 games, the Bills had just 19 last week but gained 500 yards!  Buffalo crossed into Miami territory on EACH of their last 6 offensive possessions and scored only 3 points.  They had their chances to say the least.  The Ravens have scored 75 points in their last 2 games vs decent defenses (Miami and New England) and they should have success vs a Buffalo defense that remains very banged up especially in the defensive backfield where 5 of their 9 top DB’s (CB’s and safeties) are out or questionable.  Part of the reason this total is set lower than it should be is weather.  The remnants of Hurricane Ian could be in the area with possible rain and 10 to 15 MPH winds.  Something we’ll have to keep an eye on as we get closer to game time.

Posted on by

NFL Player Prop MNF – Sept 26

PROP BETS – OVER 14.5 RECEIVING YARDS – JAKE FERGUSON – COWBOYS

ASA’s NFL Player Prop bets for the Cowboys vs. Giants game. The news out of Dallas is that starting tight end Dalton Schultz is NOT expected to play. Before making this wager be sure to watch the pre-game warmups and see if he is active. If Schultz doesn’t play, we like Jake Ferguson to see plenty of action at the TE position. Last season Schultz was the 6th highest targeted TE in the NFL with 6.1 looks per game. The inexperienced QB Cooper Rush will likely check down to his underneath option or Ferguson in this case. In the preseason Ferguson led the TE’s with 7 targets for 76-yards. In the two meetings last season the Cowboy tight ends caught 16 passes for 167 total yards. Again, this is dependent on Schultz not suiting up.

Posted on by

NFL Player Props Thursday NFL Steelers vs. Browns

NFL player prop bets for Thursday, Sept 22nd 2022

KAREEM HUNT – OVER 16.5 RECEIVING YARDS – Hunt had 16 receiving yards last week against the Jets and 24 the week before versus Carolina. Dating back to last season he has averaged 23-receiving yards per game. Hunt has been targeted 6 times in two games and should see his fair share of looks in this game. Pittsburgh was 14th in the NFL a year ago in receiving yards allowed to running backs at an average of 38.2 per game. With the high winds in Cleveland tonight expect plenty of check-downs to the backs.

NICK CHUBB – OVER 6.5 RECEIVING YARDS – Pittsburgh was 14th in the NFL a year ago in receiving yards allowed to running backs at an average of 38.2 per game. With the high winds in Cleveland tonight expect plenty of check-downs to the backs. Chubb literally needs just one ball thrown his way to eclipse this number. Last week he had 26-receiving yards on 3-receptions with 3 targets. Last season Chubb averaged 1.7 receptions per game and 12.4-receiving yards per contest.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS – UNDER 16.5 POINTS – The Steelers are averaging 18.5PPG which is 22nd in the NFL. That average is misleading though as they have just 1 offensive TD on the season. Pittsburgh is 30th in both yards per game gained and Yards Per Play at 4.3. The Steelers have just 2 Red Zone attempts this season and have benefitted with great field position with turnovers forced by their defense (6 in two games). The Steelers current estimated points per game is 14.5, one of the lowest numbers in the NFL. The windy conditions certainly won’t help in this one. Bet Under.

Recent Articles

Posted on by

NFL free prediction Miami Dolphins vs. Baltimore Ravens, Sept 18th

ASA breaks down this NFL showdown for you with insights on how and who to bet on.

#263/264 ASA PLAY ON Under 44.5 Points – Miami Dolphins vs Baltimore Ravens, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

These 2 met last year and it was a 22-10 grinder won by the Fins.  We expect a similar situation on Sunday.  Both of these teams were slower paced the first week of the season with Miami ranking 31st in pace and Baltimore 27th after one game.  The Ravens ranked 20th in pace last year so that should stay the same throughout this season.  Miami was middle of the pack a year ago but their new head coach McDaniels loves to run the ball and we anticipate them in the bottom third in pace this season.  In their first game, the Dolphins put up just 20 points vs New England and 7 of those came on a defensive TD.  Defensively they looked really good holding the Pats to just 7 points on 271 total yards (5.0 YPP).  The Baltimore offense put up 24 points last week but gained only 274 total yards.  They held the Jets to 9 points and while NY had 380 total yards, almost 200 of those yards came when Baltimore was up 24-3 and the game was out of reach.  The Jets only averaged 4.8 YPP for the game.  In their meeting last year, the Fins and Ravens combined to average only 4.9 YPP and there were 16 punts in the game.  There were only 25 points scored by the offenses in that game with Miami returning a fumble 50 yards for a TD.  There were 27 possessions in the game and 20 of those last 6 plays or fewer.  The defenses dominated that game and we expect the same here.  Baltimore loves the run the ball (3rd in carries per game last year) and we look for the Dolphins to run a lot this year with a new scheme from McDaniels whose known as one of the top run game coordinators on the NFL.  Running eats clock and shortens the game.  These 2 have faced off 6 times since 2014 and only one of those games topped 44 points.  The projected score on this game is Baltimore 24, Miami 21 and we don’t expect either team to reach their number.  Under is the play.