Tag: nfl predictions

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AFC East betting prediction | NY Jets Total Wins

AFC EAST

NFL WIN TOTAL – NY JETS UNDER 9.5 +140

Clearly the big offseason acquisition by the Jets was QB Aaron Rodgers which has New York in a frenzy and anointed as a Super Bowl contender. The reality is that this team had a win total a year ago of 5.5 which they surpassed with 7 wins in 2022-23. Of those 7 wins a year ago, only three came against a team that finished the regular season with a winning record. New York was VERY good defensively a season ago finishing 5th in total DVOA after facing eleven teams that ranked in the top half of the league in offensive DVOA. Rodgers numbers fell off last season in Green Bay with his worst career QBR of 39.3 and his lowest total passing yards in a season going back to 2013. His 6.8- yards per pass attempt was his second lowest average going back to 2006 and he threw 12 INT’s which is the second most of his career. We also can’t ignore Rodger’s age (39) and let’s face it; the Jets are one play away from having Zach Wilson as their starting QB. The biggest factor that will impact the Jets season is their schedule which is one of, if not the toughest in the NFL. New York must face the rest of the AFC East twice along with the AFC West and NFC East. They also get the Browns, Falcons and Texans who will be better this season than they were a year ago. The value in the number has us on the UNDER here.

OTHER JETS BETTING OPTIONS:

·         Jets to NOT make the Playoffs +110

·         RB Breece Hall OVER 5.5 RUSHING TOUCHDOWNS – *Only if Dalvin Cook is NOT added to the Jets roster* – Hall had 4 rushing TD’s a season ago in only 7 games. NY will employ a West Coast offense that features a strong rushing philosophy.

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AFC North betting prediction | Cleveland Browns Total Wins

AFC North Cleveland Browns Over 9.5 Wins

AFC NORTH

NFL WIN TOTAL – Cleveland Browns OVER 9.5 +120

We like the value in the Over-Under number as the Cleveland Browns win total projections a year ago was this same number of 9.5. That number was set last season knowing QB Deshaun Watson would not be under center for the first 11 games to start the season. In Watson’s previous three seasons in Houston, he threw for an average of 4,280 yards per season with 85 total touchdowns to 28 total interceptions. The Browns rely heavily on their running game and RB Nick Chubb who was 3rd in the NFL in total rushing yards 2022 with 1,525 rushing yards. Chubb has essentially been a 1,000 yards rusher every season in the NFL (rushed for 996 as a rookie). Cleveland finished the year 8th in offensive DVOA, 6th best in rushing. The Browns defense slipped in 2022 to 23rd in defensive DVOA after ranking 11th the previous season. Cleveland addressed their holes on the defensive side of the football by signing a few key free agents and a solid draft class. Cleveland won 7 games a year ago with 6 of their nine losses coming by 1-score. The Browns had an average differential of minus -1.2PPG which was tied for 17th in the league. Cleveland plays the 23rd easiest schedule this season according to our data which has our model projecting them to finish with more than 10-wins.

OTHER BROWNS BETTING OPTIONS:

·         +390 to win the AFC North

·         QB Deshaun Watson OVER 3,500 total passing yards -112 – Watson has threw for over 3,800 yards in three seasons when he played a minimum of 15 games in Houston.  

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Player Prop Bets Sunday, Feb 12th

ASA has you covered today with a pair of Player Prop Bets. 1 in the NFL and 1 in the NBA

OVER 3.5 RUSH ATTEMPTS – QB Patrick Mahomes – KC Chiefs

Mahomes has had 2 more weeks to get closer to 100%.  He had 3 rush attempts in both Jax (missed some of game and came back injured) and vs Cincinnati on bad ankle.  Mahomes carried the ball 4 or more times in in 10 of 19 games this season and with the Eagles pass rush (most sacks in the NFL), Mahomes may have more opportunities to scramble for yardage.  In his 3 Super Bowl appearances Mahomes has 21 rushing attempts (7 per game average) and hasn’t had less than 5 attempts in any of those games.

ASA player prop OVER 31.5 POINTS+REBOUNDS – Pascal Siakam – Toronto Raptors

Siakam is on a miny-tear right now and has put up two straight impressive games against the Spurs and Jazz. Today he gets a very favorable matchup against a Pistons team that struggles to stop Power Forwards. Detroit allows the 2nd most points and rebounds to PF’s on the season at 23.9PPG and 12.1RPG. Siakam is averaging 31.8Pts+Rebs his last ten games and has put up 47 and 41 in the past two games. We are betting he has a big game today.

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NFL PLAYER PROP BETS – Jan 1

ASA NFL PLAYER PROPS – Jan 1st 2022

Leonard Fournette (Buccaneers) Over 27.5 Rec Yards (Even)

Lenny had his best performance in quite some time last week, putting up 9 catches for 90 yards as the Bucs top receiver. Tom Brady was strictly looking to dink and dunk and has found recent success getting the ball out quickly. Using the short passes as an extension of the run game will help Tampa to avoid negative plays with an increasingly injured offensive line. 

David Montgomery (Bears) Over 49.5 Rush Yards (-115)

Detroit was abused by the Panther’s rushing attack last week for an astonishing 320 yards on the ground. With Montgomery seeing the majority of the backfield carries, he is in for a big day after Chuba Hubbard and D’onte Foreman both amassed 100+ yards against the Lions. Chicago will look to get the ground game going with the dynamic duo of Montgomery and Fields. 

Aaron Rodgers (Packers) Over 254.5 Pass Yards (-115)

Green Bay is riding a three game winning streak and needs to win out to have a chance at the playoffs. Healthy weapons have helped the Packers become more explosive in the passing game and Minnesota bringing the league’s worst passing defense to Lambeau Field bodes well this week. Rodgers has not surpassed 300 yards all season, but will need to turn back the clock in a must win game. 

Aaron Rodgers (Packers) OVER 2.5 RUSHING YARDS

All we need is one scramble from Rodgers here to cash this ticket. He’s going up against one of, if not the worst defense in the NFL. Minnesota is 31st in total yards per game allowed, 32nd against the pass and 19th versus the run. In a must win situation we know Rodgers will do everything he can to win this game and even though he doesn’t run as much as he used to, he will here when forced from the pocket. On the season he is averaging 2.7 rushing yards per game.

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NBA Free Bet – Dec 8th

ASA has a FREE NBA BET for you December 8th

ASA play on UNDER 227.5 Denver Nuggets at Portland Trailblazers, 10:10PM ET

The Blazers used to be an up-tempo team but that has changed as they rank 28th in the league in possessions per game. Denver also prefers to play as a slower pace as they rank 20th in the NBA at 98.3 possessions per game. The Nuggets are coming off a 231-total point game the other night with the Mavericks, but both teams shot exceptionally well. Combined the two teams attempted just 150 field goals which is significantly lower than the league average of 172 FGA per game. Speaking of field goal attempts per game, the Blazers average 83.8 per game which is 27th in the NBA. The last time these teams met (October) they produced 245 total points, but the Blazers shot an insane 58% from the field and 46% from beyond the arc.