Tag: nfl predictions

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NFL free bet Sunday | Cardinals vs Panthers Prediction | 12-22-24

NFL FREE BET – #109 ASA FREE PLAY ON Arizona Cardinals -4 over Carolina Panthers, Sunday at 1 PM ET

Carolina had played a few decent games in a row and had a chance to prove themselves last week as a small favorite vs a bad Dallas team playing their back up QB. 

That didn’t go as planned as the Cowboys dominated on the road with Dallas winning 30-14 and outgaining Carolina by +1.2 YPP.  It was a clean sweep for Dallas in the key stats as they outgained the Panthers YPP, YPC, and yards per pass attempt. 

Carolina’s 3 wins this year have come vs the Raiders, Giants, and Saints who have a combined record of 9-33 and 2 of those wins came by 3 points or less.  They’ve been non-competitive in a number of their losses this season as their 11 setbacks have come by an average of 16 points. 

Arizona is in a must win spot here if they want to keep their playoff hopes alive.  The Cards have played the most difficult strength of schedule in the NFL this year yet they still have a YPP margin of +0.3 (9th best in the NFL) while Carolina is -0.8 YPP on the season. 

The Cardinals love to run the ball and should have a huge advantage doing so as they average 141 YPG (7th in the NFL) and they are facing the worst rush defense in the league with the Panthers allowing 173 YPG rushing on 5.0 YPC. 

Carolina is getting outscored by an average of 10 PPG at home this season and we like Arizona to win this one by at least a TD.   

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NFL FREE BET | Steelers vs Eagles Prediction | Dec 15 2024

#469/470 ASA PLAY ON Under 43 Points – Pittsburgh Steelers vs Philadelphia Eagles, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET

Two high level defenses rule the day here.  The Eagles lead the NFL allowing only 4.7 YPP and since their bye in week 5, they have allowed only 1.29 points per drive which is tops in the NFL during that time.  They also limit explosive plays giving up an average of just 2 plays per game of more than 20 yards since their bye which is also best in the NFL. 

They haven’t allowed a single team to top 23 points since week 5 and are allowing just 15 PPG over their last 9.  During that span they’ve held some high level offensive teams in check giving up 19 points vs Baltimore, 17 vs Cincinnati, and 18 vs Washington. 

We think the Steelers struggle on offense here with their top playmaker at WR Pickens who is out with a hamstring issue.  Last week without Pickens, Pittsburgh was only able to put up 267 total yards vs Cleveland and QB Wilson only had 158 yards passing. 

The Philly offense has been all that spectacular as of late failing to top 300 total yards in each of their last 2 games vs Baltimore and Carolina.  Their overall offensive numbers are decent (11th in YPP) but let’s keep in mind they have not faced a top 10 defense the entire season.  Not one.  In fact, not only have they not taken on a high level defense this year, they’ve already faced 7 of the 8 worst defenses (total defense) this season. 

The Steelers stop unit is top 10 in total defense, YPP allowed, and rush defense.  These 2 offense rank #1 and #2 in rush attempts per game which eats clock.  They are both slow tempo teams ranking 20th & 22nd in plays per second.  Lastly, both defense are fantastic on 3rd down (#2 and #3 in opponents 3rd down conversion rate) which limits scoring drives.  We like this one to stay Under the total.  

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NFL Free Pick | Jets vs Dolphins Prediction | Dec 8 2024

POINT TRAIN NFL FREE BET –OVER 44.5 @Miami Dolphins vs New York Jets – 1PM ET

  • There is a ton of UNDER tickets and money flowing in on this O-U number, yet the Books won’t budge off 44.5. That tells us all we need to know.
  • Miami’s offense was humming scoring with 23, 34 and 34-points in three straight games until they ran into the Packers on Thanksgiving Day in frigid temps/wind and only managed 17-points.
  • The Dolphins are averaging 5.8 yards per play in their last three games and continue to get better as Tua gets more comfortable with the offense after missing several games this season in concussion protocol.
  • Miami has a big advantage this week with their wideouts going up against a bunch of backup DB’s for the Jets. New York is prone to allowing big plays to opponents passing attacks at 10.1 yards/attempt.
  • The Jets defense has allowed 31,28 and 26 points in their last three games and 5.5 yards per play which is up from the 4.9 they allow for the season.
  • Of course, we will need the Jets to score here too, and they should after putting up 27 and 21 points the past two weeks.
  • NY is loaded offensively but haven’t put together that one break out game. With nothing left to play for they will throw caution to the wind and open up the playbook to try and play spoiler in this AFC East clash.

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NFL Player Prop Bets | Nov 17th 2024

NFL Player Prop Bets – Free prop bets for Sunday, Nov 17th 2024

Ravens Lamar Jackson over 42.5 Rush Yards (-115)

Jackson has surpassed 45 rushing yards in seven of his ten games this season. In the previous two weeks he has not needed to use his legs as much, shredding the Broncos and Bengals in the midst of throwing 7 TDs and 0 INTs. He matches up against the Steelers and their second ranked scoring defense on the road this Sunday. A better defense actually suits Jackson’s rushing prop as he will be forced to run more rather than get what he wants from the pocket. Lamar has only played in 2 of the previous 6 games against Pittsburgh, and he rushed for 55 and 45 yards respectively. Expect Jackson to return to his scrambling ways in a huge divisional matchup in the highest projected point total of the weekend. 

49ers Christian McCaffrey Over 27.5 Rec Yards (-120)

CMC was finally back last week and totalled 107 yards with 68 receiving yards on seven targets. With such involvement in the passing game, especially after missing every game so far this season, McCaffrey will see plenty of volume once again. Another hotly contested division game has the second highest O/U of week 11. Seattle has a middle of the road defense but can fill it up on offense. Points should be plentiful and if CMC plays 88% of the running back snaps again, it’s hard to imagine he does not amass his receiving total. 

Dolphins Tyreek Hill Anytime TD (+120) 

Hill caught his first touchdown since week one in last week’s win vs the Rams. Since Tua has been back, the Dolphins offense went from abysmal to just mediocre. With so many weapons and Tyreek’s immense talent it’s only a matter of time before Miami gets back on track. Hill had so many explosive plays and 13 TDs last season. Las Vegas ranks 30th in points allowed in 2024 and if Reek is ever going to have a breakout game, its going to be after a big win while gaining chemistry back with his quarterback against a bad team. Hill has nine targets the past two games combined which is unacceptable. The squeaky wheel treatment better be in store for the NFLs fastest man. 

Colts Jonathon Taylor – Over 81.5 Rush Yards (-110)

Taylor has been over this rushing total in 5 of seven games this season and with the QB change back to Richardson, the Colts should feed Taylor and pound the football against a suspect Jets D. Taylor averages over this number on the season and is averaging 18 carries per game so we know he’ll get his share of carries. The Colts have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL and anchor an offense that averages 4.7 yards per rush, 9th most in the NFL. The Jets defense has struggled to stop the run, allowing 134 rushing yards per game 25th most in the NFL. Opposing teams have run the football on average 31 times per game against the Jets, 3rd highest number in the league.

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Commanders vs Eagles Predictions | 11-14-24 | Prop Bets

Philadelphia Eagles AJ Brown OVER 78.5 Receiving yards – Brown has been over this number in 4 of his last five games and is averaging 92.17 in his last ten games. Last year in 2 meetings with the Redskins team he had 8 targets, 8 receptions for 130 yards and 9 receptions on 13 targets for 175 yards. Washington’s pass defense is 20th in yards/completion at 10.2, 21st in completion % against and 27th in opposing quarterbacks’ QBR rating. 

Washington Commanders TE Zach Ertz OVER 3.5 Receptions – Ertz is averaging 6.3 targets per game over his last six games and has 4 or more receptions in 5 of those six games. Philadelphia allows 4.1 receptions per game to TE’s this season despite having one of the best pass defenses in the league. Ertz only played in 7 games a year ago but in his previous two seasons of 11 and 10 games he averaged 5 and 4.7 receptions per game. In his 12 year career, Ertz has averaged 4.6 receptions per game. Let’s not forget he is playing against the team that drafted him back in 2013 and whom he played for in 9 seasons.

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