Tag: nfl predictions

Posted on by

Commanders vs Eagles Predictions | 11-14-24 | Prop Bets

Philadelphia Eagles AJ Brown OVER 78.5 Receiving yards – Brown has been over this number in 4 of his last five games and is averaging 92.17 in his last ten games. Last year in 2 meetings with the Redskins team he had 8 targets, 8 receptions for 130 yards and 9 receptions on 13 targets for 175 yards. Washington’s pass defense is 20th in yards/completion at 10.2, 21st in completion % against and 27th in opposing quarterbacks’ QBR rating. 

Washington Commanders TE Zach Ertz OVER 3.5 Receptions – Ertz is averaging 6.3 targets per game over his last six games and has 4 or more receptions in 5 of those six games. Philadelphia allows 4.1 receptions per game to TE’s this season despite having one of the best pass defenses in the league. Ertz only played in 7 games a year ago but in his previous two seasons of 11 and 10 games he averaged 5 and 4.7 receptions per game. In his 12 year career, Ertz has averaged 4.6 receptions per game. Let’s not forget he is playing against the team that drafted him back in 2013 and whom he played for in 9 seasons.

ON SALE BETS

BETTING NEWS

Posted on by

Colts vs Titans Prediction | Oct 13 2024

ASA FREE PLAY ON Over 43 Points – Indianapolis Colts vs Tennessee Titans, Sunday at 1 PM ET

Indy’s defense is a wreck right now.  They’ve allowed 61 points over their last 2 weeks and rank dead last in total defense allowing 420 YPG.  They’ve had 2 games where they held their opponents under 24 points and that was vs Green Bay when the Packers ran the ball 55 times with back up QB Willis getting his first start and vs Chicago who ranks 29th in YPP offense.  Even in those games GB tallied 383 yards and Chicago 395 yards so they both had opportunities to put up more points. 

Indy ranks dead last in the NFL allowing opponents to average 38 yards per drive.  The Titans have some offensive confidence coming into this game after putting up 31 points last week (their season high) vs Miami and QB Levis, who was banged up in the game, looks like he’ll be fine here. 

Tennessee’s defense is highly rated, however they’ve faced 4 offenses (Miami, NYJ, and Chicago) who rank in the bottom 7 in YPP.  The one decent offense they’ve faced was Green Bay who put up 30 points on them. 

Indy’s offense averages 6.2 YPP (5th in the NFL) and 24 PPG.  We would expect the Colts to have success here offensively.  Both QB’s should have time to operate in the pocket as these defenses rank 29th and 30th in pressure rate. 

These 2 AFC South rivals have met 10 times since the start of the 2019 season and they’ve averaged 48 total points in those games.  We like the Over on Sunday as our free NFL bet. 

BEST BETS TODAY

BETTING PICKS

Posted on by

New Orleans Saints vs Kansas City Chiefs Preview | MNF | 10-7-24

MNF Saints vs. Chiefs Prediction | Player Prop bets | October 7th 2024

Game Overview: The Kansas City Chiefs, coming off an impressive start with a 4-0 record, are hosting the New Orleans Saints, who stand at 2-2, in a Monday Night Football showdown at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. This game marks a significant intersection of two teams with contrasting fortunes, with the Chiefs defending their Super Bowl title and the Saints looking to break their losing streak against Kansas City.

Team Analysis:

  • Kansas City Chiefs:
    • Record: 4-0, showcasing resilience with all wins by seven points or less.
    • Offense: Led by Patrick Mahomes, who has been pivotal in the Chiefs’ close victories. However, they’ve faced challenges with injuries, notably to wide receiver Rashee Rice, RB’s Edwards-Helaire and Pacheo. Kansas City ranks near league average in most offensive statistical categories.
    • Defense: The Chiefs defense allows just 99 rushing yards per game which is good for 8th best in the NFL. They give up just 3.8 yards per game, 4th best. KC’s defense is 25th in yards per completion at 10.7.
  • New Orleans Saints:
    • Record: 2-2, with recent games decided by narrow margins, indicating competitive but inconsistent play.
    • Offense: Derek Carr and Alvin Kamara lead an offense that ranks well in rushing but struggles more in passing efficiency. New Orleans is 1st in rushing attempts per game, 7th in total rushing yards per game but 18th in rushing yards per attempt.
    • Defense: Stronger against the pass but weaker against the run, which could be tested by Mahomes. New Orleans allows 5.8 yards per play (22nd) and 4.8 yards per rush. They have the 8th best pass defense when it comes to opposing QB’s completion percentage at 62.3%.

Betting Insights:

  • Spread: The Chiefs are favored by 5.5 points.
  • Over/Under: Set at 43

Key Betting Angles:

  • Chiefs’ Home Performance: The Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium has been formidable, with a 33-10 SU record since 2020. This season KC has a pair of wins at home over Baltimore by 7-points and Cincinnati by 1pt.
  • Saints’ Road Strategy: The Saints are coming off a last second road loss to the Falcons 24-26 but do own a road win in Dallas 44-19. With QB Derek Carr under center, the Saints are 5-6 SU on the road, 5-5-1 ATS.
  • Player Prop Bet: Kansas City Chiefs kicker Harrison Butker Over 1.5 made field goals. Butker has made 2 or more in every game this season and is averaging 2.33 per game. He is 88.9% on field goals this season with his only miss coming from 65 yards. Last season Butker was 33 of 35 on the year or 94.3%. He has been Over this number in 7 of his last eight games.

Betting Markets: There is more money coming in on the Over in this game which is starting to influence the Books and drive this total up. 43 is a key number so we’re not sure if this moves higher than that. Betting markets are slightly favoring the Saints with more money and tickets on New Orleans which has moved the number from the opening number of KC -6.5 to the current line of -5.5.

BEST PICKS TODAY

BETTING PREVIEWS

Posted on by

Cowboys vs Giants preview | 9-26-24

Cowboys vs Giants preview

NFL Betting Preview: Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants – September 26, 2024

Cowboys vs Giants Preview Game Overview: The Dallas Cowboys, with a record of 1-2, are set to clash with the New York Giants, also standing at 1-2, in what promises to be a pivotal NFC East matchup on Thursday Night Football at MetLife Stadium. This game could be crucial for both teams looking to gain ground in a competitive division.

Betting Lines and Odds:

  • Spread: Cowboys -4.5
  • Moneyline: Cowboys -300, Giants +250
  • Over/Under: 45 points

Key Betting Insights:

  • Trend Analysis: The Cowboys are 1/2 SU/ATS and coming off an upset loss at home to the Ravens. The Giants, despite their record, have shown moments of competitiveness, and stand 1-2 SU/ATS with a win last week in Cleveland.
  • Team Performance:
    • Dallas Cowboys: Dak Prescott has been efficient, throwing for 851 yards with 4 touchdowns and 2 INT’s, but the defense has been a concern, particularly against the run allowing 187.5 rushing YPG. This could play into the Giants’ strategy if they can establish their ground game, which has been a problem as they rush for just 105YPG.
    • New York Giants: The Giants have leaned on Devin Singletary, who’s been effective with 197 rushing yards on 4.1 yards per carry. However, QB Danny Jones and their passing game needs to step up against a Cowboys defense that’s been exploited for 44 and 28-points in two straight games.
  • Player Props:
    • Dak Prescott: In the second meeting of the season last year, Prescott threw for 404 yards with 4 TD’s and one INT in a Cowboys 49-17 win against the Giants. We may take a look at Over Prescott’s total passing yards Over in this game against a Giants defense allowign the 13th most passing YPG in 2024.
    • CeeDee Lamb: As a key option for Prescott with 24 targets this season, Lamb’s receiving yards of 78.5 offer value. Lamb and Prescott got into a heated exchange last week and Prescott may focus on getting Lamb the ball against the Giants. Lamb is averaging 101.1 receiving yards p/game in his last 10 games. The last time he faced NY he was targeted 14 times and finished with 151-receiving yards.
    • Jake Ferguson: Ferguson came back last week after missing a game with an injury and received 11 targets from Prescott with 6 receptions for 95-yards. We would consider hit Over 4.5 recepions made before total yardage.
  • Public Sentiment and Betting Patterns:
    • Early money has slightly favored the Cowboys, but there’s significant interest in the Giants covering the spread, especially with home-field advantage in play.
  • Injury Reports and Team News:
    • Keep an eye on the injury report, particularly for key defensive players on both sides, which could significantly impact the game’s flow and betting lines.

Betting Insights:

  • Spread: The Cowboys opened (-5.5) are 9-1 SU and 7-3 ATS the last ten meetings with the Giants and have won 6 in a row.
  • Over/Under: The total opened at 43.5 points. This series is on a 7-3 Over run with last years two games finishing with 40 total points on this field and 66-points when they met in Dallas. The last 4 meetings in New York have stayed Under.
  • Prop Bets: Focus on Prescott’s passing stats and Lamb’s receiving yards, along with Ferguson’s targets in this one, against this Giants secondary that allowed 10.0-yards per reception a year ago, 9th highest number in the NFL. Maybe also, consider Singletary’s rushing yards or carries if the Giants commit to the running game.

Conclusion: Always consider the latest team news, especially regarding injuries, which could sway the game’s outcome significantly. Remember, while trends and stats guide, football’s unpredictability means no bet is guaranteed. Enjoy the game and bet responsibly!

Get other betting advice here daily from ASAwins.com

ON SALE BETS TODAY

BETTING ARTICLES

Posted on by

JAGUARS vs BILLS Preview | 9-23-24

Jaguars vs Bills preview

NFL Game Preview: Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Buffalo Bills – September 22, 2024

Game Overview Jaguars vs Bills preview: The Jacksonville Jaguars, currently at 0-2, are set to face off against the Buffalo Bills, who have started the season with a perfect 2-0 record. This Monday Night Football clash on September 22, 2024, at Highmark Stadium in Buffalo, presents a stark contrast in team momentum and expectations.

Team Analysis:

  • Jacksonville Jaguars: Coming off two consecutive losses, the Jaguars are in dire need of a victory to kickstart their season. Trevor Lawrence has been underwhelming, completing just over 50% of his passes with only one touchdown, indicating struggles in the passing game. However, the Jaguars have shown some promise in the run game, with notable performances by their running backs.
  • Buffalo Bills: The Bills have looked impressive, defeating their opponents convincingly. Josh Allen, despite the departure of Stefon Diggs, has managed the offense with poise, showcasing a balanced attack with both passing and running games. The defense has also stepped up, making Buffalo a formidable opponent at home.

Betting Odds: Jaguars vs Bills Preview

  • Spread: Bills -5.5
  • Moneyline: Bills -250, Jaguars +200
  • Over/Under: Set at 46, with the market showing a slight lean towards the under given the defensive performances, especially by Buffalo.

Injury Updates: From the information available, there haven’t been detailed reports directly from the game week, but general sentiment from posts and updates around the time suggests:

  • Bills: Concerns over how the offensive line might hold up, especially with mentions of backup tackles potentially playing, which could affect their run-first strategy against a struggling Jaguars offense.
  • Jaguars: No specific injury updates directly from the game week, but there’s an ongoing narrative around Trevor Lawrence needing to step up, which might imply pressure on him to perform regardless of physical condition.

Key Matchups to Watch:

  • Trevor Lawrence vs. Bills Defense: Lawrence needs to find his rhythm against a Bills defense that’s been effective at limiting big plays and quarterback mobility.
  • Bills’ Running Game vs. Jaguars’ Run Defense: If the Bills can establish their run game, it could dictate a game script where they control the clock, keeping the Jaguars’ offense off the field.

Predictions and Fan Sentiment: Fan sentiments and expert analyses seem to lean towards the Bills, citing their home advantage, offensive balance, and the Jaguars’ early season struggles. However, the Jaguars have historical success against Buffalo, which might give some hope to their supporters.

The game could very well hinge on whether the Jaguars can muster an offensive performance to upset the expectations or if the Bills continue their dominant start to the season, potentially covering the spread with a strong defensive showing.

Conclusion: This matchup is critical for the Jaguars to avoid falling into a 0-3 hole, while for the Bills, it’s another opportunity to solidify their position as AFC contenders. Betting markets and fan are showing a cautious optimism around the Bills, but underdogs in the NFL have the Books taking some buy back on the Jags.

Check out other betting previews here on ASAwins.com

SALE BETS TODAY

OTHER BETTING NEWS