Tag: NFL picks

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Commanders vs Giants prediction – Oct 22nd

NFL FREE BET #462 ASA PLAY ON NY Giants +3 over Washington Commanders, Sunday at 1 PM ET

Giants are coming off a solid outing @ Buffalo giving the Bills all they could handle last week in a 14-9 loss.  NY outgained Buffalo in the game and had the ball 1st and goal at the Bills 1 yard line with a chance to win in the final seconds.  Veteran QB Tyrod Taylor had a solid outing and it looks like he’ll be under center again today as Daniel Jones recovers from an injury.  Washington won @ Atlanta last week but they were outplayed dramatically in the stats.  In that win the Commanders were -13 first downs, outgained 402 to 197, and 5.1 to 3.9 on a YPP basis.  They won the turnover battle 3 to 0 which was the difference in the game.  The Giants have covered 7 of the last 9 in this series and as a dog vs Washington they’ve covered 4 of the last 5.  We like the line value here as in their only 2 home games this year NYG was a 3 point dog vs Dallas and a 2.5 point dog vs Seattle, 2 teams ranked 10th and 11th per DVOA and now they are getting the same number vs a Washington team ranked 24th per DVOA.  We’re catching the Giants at the bottom of the market here but off a solid outing vs a high level team vs an overvalued Washington team.  Take the points.

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NFL FREE BET | OCT 1st 2023

ASA’S FREE NFL BET – OVER 46.5 DENVER BRONCOS AT CHICAGO BEARS, 1PM ET

Two terrible defenses going at it in this one will give both offenses plenty of opportunities. Denver ranks last in YPP allowed at over 7.0 and Chicago ranks 30th giving up 6.0 YPP. The Broncos defensively stats took a big hit last week allowing Miami to score 70 points but lets not forget the week prior they allowed Washington to score 35 points to a Washington team that scored 23 total points in their other 2 games vs teams not named Denver. Over 56% of opponents possessions vs the Broncos this season have either reached the red zone or scored prior to that which is the worst rate in the league. We think Chicago’s offense lays it all on the line here with nothing to lose and plays well. They thrive on the ground with their mobile QB Fields and Denver ranks 31st allowing 5.6 YPC on the season. In their only other home game this season the Bears put up 20 points on GB and we look for them to exceed that number today. Denver should have plenty of scoring opportunities as well. The Broncos offense has actually been solid averaging 5.7 YPP which is 8th in the NFL. QB Wilson is quietly having a solid season and he’ll be facing a Chicago secondary that ranks 30th in passing YPG allowed and 31st in yards per pass attempt. Chicago’s defense has allowed 27 points or more in every game this season and dating back to last year they’ve allowed at least 25 points in 13 consecutive games. Perfect weather here with temps in the mid 70’s and light winds. Both offenses should thrive in this one and we’re going Over the total.

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Point Train NFL Predictions – 2022-23

POINT TRAIN PREDICTIONS – all odds found at FanDuel

NFC WINNER – Green Bay Packers +500

The Packers have rolled to an impressive 39-10 regular season record the last 3 seasons which is the best mark in the NFL over that time period.  The defense should be one of the best in the NFL this year.  Green Bay is loaded in the defensive backfield and it could be argued they have three #1 corners with Alexander, Stokes and Douglas.  If they can shore up their run defense this will be tough to beat.  Because of that, the offense may not have to do as much as previous seasons.  QB Rodgers lost some key weapons in the passing game but others have stepped up in early practices and he tends to make all of his receivers look good.  The running game will be among the best in the league as well with the 2 headed monster of Jones and Dillon.  The Packers have won the NFC North in 8 of the last 11 seasons and we expect them to come out on top in the division again this year.  They’ve come up short in the NFC Championship game in 2 of the last 3 seasons and we think they have a great shot to get over the hump this year. 

NFC LONGER SHOT – New Orleans Saints +1700

The Saints roster is loaded with talent.  It’s one of the best in the NFL.  Their defense last year was very good finishing in the top 5 in PPG, YPG, and YPP allowed.  Their offensive weapons are as good as any in the league with RB Kamara (suspension possible?) and WR’s Thomas (back from injury), Landry and rookie Olave.  Can QB Jameis Winston play well enough to get this team to the playoffs?  That’s they only question we have with this team.  If Winston plays well, the Saints should be very good.  Tampa remains the only other formidable team in the division and New Orleans has owned the Bucs beating them 7 straight times in the regular season, including 4-0 facing Brady at QB. 

AFC WINNER – Buffalo Bills +400

The Bills have lost in the AFC Divisional or Championship game in each of the last 2 seasons.  Both losses were versus the Chiefs including a 42-36 setback in OT to get to the AFC Title game last season.  If you remember Buffalo took a 3 point lead in that game with just 13 seconds remaining the Chiefs were able to tie it in regulation and win in OT.  Despite coming up short, the Bills were the best team in the NFL for the entirety of the season.  They led the NFL in point differential and yards per play differential, both by a wide margin.  All 12 of their wins came by more than 10 points and 6 of their 7 losses came by a TD or less with 2 coming in OT.  The defense led the NFL allowing just 18 PPG and in yards per play allowed at just 4.8.  The offense should be great this year with QB Allen working with some high end weapons again this season.  If the offensive line can improve just a bit, watch out.  The AFC East is a fairly weak and the Bills are definitely the class of the division.  Buffalo finally gets to the Super Bowl this year.

AFC LONGER SHOT – Indianapolis Colts +1200

The Colts have the 3rd easiest schedule in the NFL this year and they sit in one of the weakest divisions in football, the AFC South.  Houston and Jacksonville are projected to be 2 of the worst teams in the NFL once again and Tennessee had the lowest point differential of any team that won their division.  Despite finishing 2nd last year, the Colts point differential was 21 points better than the Titans.  An upgrade at QB with Matt Ryan should help significantly as Wentz was a disaster last season.  We project Indianapolis to win the division this year and at 12/1 they are not a bad investment to win it all.

SUPER BOWL WINNER – Buffalo Bills +650