Tag: NFL futures

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AFC East Prediction | NY Jets Over 9.5 | 9-4-24

ASA’s AFC EAST WIN TOTAL PROJECTION

AFC East Prediction – New York Jets – Over 9.5 Wins (-150)

We went into our research on the Jets thinking we’d be leaning toward the Under on their win total.  After a deep dive into their off-season transactions, schedule, etc… we realized our original thoughts were off and the Over is the play here. 

They should be very good in the trenches on both sides of the ball this year which is a huge key.  Last year they were flat out bad on the offensive line but their off-season transactions, picking up 2 of the top OT’s in the NFL (Smith from Dallas & Moses from Baltimore) have this unit ranked in the top 5 in the league per PFF. 

The defensive line was fantastic last year and is ranked #1 per PFF heading into this season.  The stop unit as a whole for New York is among the best in the NFL and led the league in YPP allowed at 4.6 and #2 in YPG allowed at 292.  If the offense can be average, this team will have a very good record. 

QB Aaron Rodgers is expected to be back and they signed veteran back up Tyrod Taylor, who has started nearly 100 games in his career, just in case.  The weapons are solid with RB Hall returning (1000 yards rushing & 600 yards receiving), along with WR’s Wilson and Williams who they picked up in free agency. 

The Fly Boys face the 4th easiest schedule in the NFL based on opponents win projections and face the league’s worst team, the Patriots (4.5 projected wins) twice.  Outside the AFC East, they also face the Broncos, Titans, Cardinals, Vikings, and Seahawks who are all projected to have losing records this season. 

If Rodgers can stay healthy, we realize that’s a big if, the offense should go from 31st in YPP & YPG to middle of the pack at worst.  That should be enough to get to 10 wins this with their high end defense and easy schedule.      

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AFC South Prediction | Texans Under 9.5 wins | 9-4-24

ASA’s AFC SOUTH WIN TOTAL PROJECTION

Houston Texans – Under 9.5 Wins (+125) We think Houston is a bit overvalued after last year’s 10-7 season.  Their opening win total a year ago was 5.5 and now we’re sitting a full 4 games above that at 9.5 and plus juice on the Under. 

They were a bit fortunate last year to get to 10 wins.  Their point differential was just +24 for the season and they finished 7-3 in one score games so we can probably look for a regression there.  They also played one of the league’s easiest schedules in 2023 and that is being replaced with a much tougher slate in 2024 (7th toughest SOS this season).  They face the NFC North & AFC East so @ Green Bay, vs Detroit, @ NY Jets, vs Buffalo, and vs Miami.  On top of that, their other opponents outside the AFC South include games @ Kansas City, @ Dallas, and home vs Baltimore.  Last year their 3 “swing games” so to speak were NY Jets, Denver and Atlanta so a huge upgrade this season in level of opponents.   

They also play 9 road games this season and they were just .500 away from home last year with tight 2 point wins @ Carolina (2 wins on the season), @ Atlanta (7 wins last season) and Houston was destroyed @ NY Jets with Zach Wilson at the helm. 

QB Stroud and HC Ryans had great first seasons but is the dreaded sophomore slump in store for the 2024 year?  Teams now have had a full season of film on Stroud so he won’t sneak up on anyone.  He’s also operating behind an offensive line that ranks near the bottom of the NFL going into this season per PFF (22nd). 

Defensively Houston’s weak spot last year was vs the pass which is not where you want to be vulnerable in the current NFL.  They allowed 6.9 yards per pass attempt (26th) and opposing QB’s completed over 68% of their attempts on the Texans (30th).  This year that shaky pass defense faces the likes of Mahomes, Prescott, Rodgers, Goff, Allen, Tagovailoa, Jackson, Love, and Lawrence to name a few. 

They were also very fortunate to be +10 in turnover margin last season (5th best in the NFL) which will be very tough to match.  This Houston team won’t catch anyone by surprise this year and we have them tabbed for 9 wins so Under is the side here. 

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NFL Rookie of the Year Prediction | By ASA | 8-26-24

NFL ROOKIE OF THE YEAR – +500 QB JAYDEN DANIELS – WASHINGTON COMMANDERS

The Washington Commanders are entering the 2024 season with a renewed sense of optimism, driven by the arrival of rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels and the fresh leadership of head coach Dan Quinn and offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury. Daniels, a dynamic dual-threat quarterback out of LSU, was a highly-touted prospect in the 2024 NFL Draft, and the Commanders are betting on his talent to be the future of the franchise. We like a future bet on Daniels to win NFL Rookie of the Year.

Daniels brings a unique blend of athleticism, arm strength, and poise to Washington’s offense. Known for his ability to extend plays with his legs and make accurate throws on the run, Daniels is expected to add a new dimension to the Commanders’ attack. His transition to the NFL will be guided by Kingsbury, who has a proven track record of developing young quarterbacks and creating high-powered offenses. Kingsbury’s system, known for its quick tempo and emphasis on spreading the field, should complement Daniels’ skill set and allow him to thrive early in his career.

Head coach Dan Quinn, known for his defensive prowess, brings a championship pedigree to Washington, having previously led the Atlanta Falcons to a Super Bowl appearance. While Quinn’s expertise lies on the defensive side of the ball, his leadership and experience will be crucial in shaping the overall culture and identity of the team.

The Commanders’ offense will feature playmakers like wide receiver Terry McLaurin and running back Brian Robinson Jr., providing Daniels with reliable targets and a solid run game to lean on. The offensive line, bolstered by key additions in the offseason, will need to give Daniels the protection he needs to make plays and develop as a rookie.

While the learning curve for Daniels will be steep, the combination of his raw talent, Kingsbury’s offensive creativity, and Quinn’s steady hand could set the stage for an exciting new era in Washington. The 2024 season will be a crucial year of development for Daniels and the Commanders, with the potential to lay the foundation for future success. With the starting QB job handed to Daniels we like his odds at +500 to be Rookie of the Year.

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NFL Playoff Future Bet – Passing Leaders – Point Train Consulting

NFL Playoff Futures Bets to Make – By Point Train Consulting

Odds offered at Draftkings.com

MOST PASSING YARDS IN THE PLAYOFFS

NFC QUARTERBACKS

Dak Prescott +360

Brock Purdy +700

Jared Goff +750

Baker Mayfield +1600

Jalen Hurts +1700

Matt Stafford +2200

Jordan Love +3000

AFC QUARTERBACKS

Josh Allen +500

Patrick Mahomes +550

Lamar Jackson +700

Tua Tagovaliloa +950

Joe Flacco +1200

CJ Stroud +2000

Mason Rudolph +3500

First off you have to project who will play the most games. Clearly the 49ers and Ravens, barring a significant injury, will be favored in every game up until the Super Bowl.  That makes those two teams likely to play three games each as both get a bye in the first round of the playoffs. Obviously, if a team that is playing this weekend advances to the Super Bowl, those quarterbacks will have an added game to their total passing stats resume.

Of the playoff teams, Miami averaged the most passing yards per game on the season followed by Detroit, Dallas, San Francisco, Kansas City, Houston, Buffalo, Rams, Packers, Eagles, Buccaneers, Browns, Ravens and the Steelers. The teams that averaged the most passing attempts in order were: Chiefs, Browns, Cowboys, Lions, Texans, Rams, Packers, Bills, Bucs, Dolphins, Eagles, Steelers, Ravens, 49ers.

Our focus immediately goes to the two favorites in the 49ers and Ravens. Baltimore is clearly a run first team as they average the most rushing attempts per game at 31.8 and they rank down the list in passing yards per game and attempts.  In other words, we are not betting on Lamar Jackson.

San Francisco clearly runs a lot too at 29.4 attempts per game, but Purdy also slings it for an average of 257.9 yards per game which is 4th most in the league. The Niners also tend to hit big passing plays as they average 13-yards per completion which is 1st in the league.

At +700 and with the likely scenario that the 49ers play three games we have to put a bet on him at these odds.

We will hedge that wager with a bet on the favorite Dak Prescott. The Cowboys face the Packers in Game 1 and the 27th overall ranked DVOA defense. Granted the Packers rank 9th in passing yards per game allowed but they are 17th in completion percentage against and 18th in yards per completion. Dallas will benefit from playing the first two rounds of the playoffs at home in a Dome and the third game in San Francisco in what should be good conditions. The Cowboys averaged the 3rd most passing yards per game at 258.6, but at home that average improved to 305YPG, best in the NFL.

At +360 we have to invest in Dak Prescott to have the most playoff passing yards.

You can essentially rule out the contenders in the AFC as they are likely going to be playing outdoors in potentially adverse conditions.

Of course, if Dallas and San Francisco get upset in the early rounds none of this matters but the odds are on our side that these two teams play three games each.

Brock Purdy +700

Dak Prescott +360

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ASA Detroit Lions Wins prediction – 2022

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ASA – OVER 6.5 WINS Detroit Lions 2022

The schedule is much easier this season ranking 23rd overall – last season they played one of the tougher schedules in the league and only won 3 games. The Lions start with a relatively easy slate and winnable games versus Philly and Washington at home, then go to Minnesota, then host Seattle who lost QB Wilson and is in for a down season. Detroit could realistically be 2-2, 3-1 or maybe even 4-0 at this point of the season. They also have winnable games versus: Miami (9-8), the Bears (twice) at the Giants, Jacksonville, Minnesota again, the Jets and Panthers who had a combined 53 wins last season.

The Lions should be much better offensively with the addition of WR’s St Brown and DJ Chark. They feature a solid running back duo of Swift and Williams and QB Goff should be much better in year two under Dan Campbell.

The team lost two starting offensive linemen to injury early on in Taylor Decker and Frank Ragnow but had a top 5-win rate at the line of scrimmage when all five starters were healthy. Other injuries took their toll as they lost receivers Quintez Cephus and Tyrell Williams, who were both projected as starters. Defensively the secondary was depleted due to injuries to Jeff Okudah and Ifeatu Melifonwu.

Detroit lost six one possession games last season, including three games on last second field goals by the opposing team. The fact that they were 11-6 ATS tells us they were undervalued last season and should make a big step forward this season.

Last season Statistics

Offense
Season StatsRank
Total Yards322.622
Passing Yards211.618
Rushing Yards110.919
Points Scored19.125
Turnovers2319
Defense
Season StatsRank
Total Yards379.829
Passing Yards244.724
Rushing Yards135.128
Points Scored27.531
Takeaway1919