Tag: NFL free predictions

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NFL Free Bet | Bengals vs Buccaneers Prediction | Aug 10th

#126 ASA FREE PLAY ON Cincinnati Bengals -6 over Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Saturday at 7 PM ET

This line has jumped from Cincinnati -3 to -6 this week and for good reason.  The Bengals are approaching this preseason much differently than they have the last few years. 

Head Coach Zac Taylor has seen his team struggle early in the regular season after he decided to sit most of his starters the last few years in the preseason.  Last year Cincy lost 3 of their first 4 regular season games and in 2022 they started 0-2.  Taylor has decided to take a different approach and his starters will all play on Saturday, including QB Burrow.

Once Burrow exits, the Bengals will go with Jake Browning who started 7 games last year and threw for 2,000 yards.  Tampa will sit all of their starters in this game according to head coach Todd Bowles. 

The Bucs will start Kyle Trask under center (10 career pass attempts) so big advantage to the Bengals in this game at QB.  While the Tampa starters will sit this one out, Bowles mentioned all of the rookies will play and potentially a lot. 

Reading between the lines this week, it sounds as if Cincinnati wants to win this game after winning just 1 preseason game the last 2 years.  We’ll call for the Bengals to win by at least a TD at home on Saturday.      

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Seattle Seahawks Preview | ASAwins NFL Win Totals

ASA’s NFC WEST WIN TOTAL PROJECTION

Seattle Seahawks – UNDER 7.5 Wins (+115)

The Seahawks finished last season with a record of 9-8 but they had a negative point differential (-38) and they were outgained by nearly 50 YPG.  Based on those stats alone, Seattle should have won only 7 games last season and that’s where we think they land in 2024 (7 or fewer wins).  They benefited from a positive turnover margin last season and only won 3 games by more than a TD in 2023 vs the 3 of the worst teams in the NFL, Carolina (2 wins last season), Arizona (4 wins last season), and the NY Giants (6 wins last season).  Six of Seattle’s wins last year came by 4 points or fewer or in OT and they were outgained in 5 of those tight 6 wins.  The offense finished 17th in points scored and 22nd in total yardage and we look for the Seahawks to regress on that side of the ball.  The offensive line is ranked 31st (out of 32 teams) by PFF heading into the season and QB Geno Smith took a big step back last season.  Smith had 10 fewer TD’s a year ago compared to 2022 and his completion percentage dropped by 5%.  They had very little running game last season (92 YPG rushing) and operating behind a poor Oline could be problematic for Smith and Company.  The defense allowed the 9th most points in 2023 along with the 3rd most yards gained by opponents despite finishing with a winning record.  Seattle has a new head coach, Mike McDonald, who has never been a head man at any level, so some growing pains are expected.  His coordinators are Ryan Grubb (OC) who has never coached in the NFL and Aden Durdy (DC) who has never been a DC in the NFL.  They faced the 11th most difficult schedule according to PFF and we look for this Seattle team to struggle in 2024.

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NFL free prediction Miami Dolphins vs. Baltimore Ravens, Sept 18th

ASA breaks down this NFL showdown for you with insights on how and who to bet on.

#263/264 ASA PLAY ON Under 44.5 Points – Miami Dolphins vs Baltimore Ravens, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

These 2 met last year and it was a 22-10 grinder won by the Fins.  We expect a similar situation on Sunday.  Both of these teams were slower paced the first week of the season with Miami ranking 31st in pace and Baltimore 27th after one game.  The Ravens ranked 20th in pace last year so that should stay the same throughout this season.  Miami was middle of the pack a year ago but their new head coach McDaniels loves to run the ball and we anticipate them in the bottom third in pace this season.  In their first game, the Dolphins put up just 20 points vs New England and 7 of those came on a defensive TD.  Defensively they looked really good holding the Pats to just 7 points on 271 total yards (5.0 YPP).  The Baltimore offense put up 24 points last week but gained only 274 total yards.  They held the Jets to 9 points and while NY had 380 total yards, almost 200 of those yards came when Baltimore was up 24-3 and the game was out of reach.  The Jets only averaged 4.8 YPP for the game.  In their meeting last year, the Fins and Ravens combined to average only 4.9 YPP and there were 16 punts in the game.  There were only 25 points scored by the offenses in that game with Miami returning a fumble 50 yards for a TD.  There were 27 possessions in the game and 20 of those last 6 plays or fewer.  The defenses dominated that game and we expect the same here.  Baltimore loves the run the ball (3rd in carries per game last year) and we look for the Dolphins to run a lot this year with a new scheme from McDaniels whose known as one of the top run game coordinators on the NFL.  Running eats clock and shortens the game.  These 2 have faced off 6 times since 2014 and only one of those games topped 44 points.  The projected score on this game is Baltimore 24, Miami 21 and we don’t expect either team to reach their number.  Under is the play.