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NFL Free Pick | Jets vs Dolphins Prediction | Dec 8 2024

POINT TRAIN NFL FREE BET –OVER 44.5 @Miami Dolphins vs New York Jets – 1PM ET

  • There is a ton of UNDER tickets and money flowing in on this O-U number, yet the Books won’t budge off 44.5. That tells us all we need to know.
  • Miami’s offense was humming scoring with 23, 34 and 34-points in three straight games until they ran into the Packers on Thanksgiving Day in frigid temps/wind and only managed 17-points.
  • The Dolphins are averaging 5.8 yards per play in their last three games and continue to get better as Tua gets more comfortable with the offense after missing several games this season in concussion protocol.
  • Miami has a big advantage this week with their wideouts going up against a bunch of backup DB’s for the Jets. New York is prone to allowing big plays to opponents passing attacks at 10.1 yards/attempt.
  • The Jets defense has allowed 31,28 and 26 points in their last three games and 5.5 yards per play which is up from the 4.9 they allow for the season.
  • Of course, we will need the Jets to score here too, and they should after putting up 27 and 21 points the past two weeks.
  • NY is loaded offensively but haven’t put together that one break out game. With nothing left to play for they will throw caution to the wind and open up the playbook to try and play spoiler in this AFC East clash.

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Colts vs Titans Prediction | Oct 13 2024

ASA FREE PLAY ON Over 43 Points – Indianapolis Colts vs Tennessee Titans, Sunday at 1 PM ET

Indy’s defense is a wreck right now.  They’ve allowed 61 points over their last 2 weeks and rank dead last in total defense allowing 420 YPG.  They’ve had 2 games where they held their opponents under 24 points and that was vs Green Bay when the Packers ran the ball 55 times with back up QB Willis getting his first start and vs Chicago who ranks 29th in YPP offense.  Even in those games GB tallied 383 yards and Chicago 395 yards so they both had opportunities to put up more points. 

Indy ranks dead last in the NFL allowing opponents to average 38 yards per drive.  The Titans have some offensive confidence coming into this game after putting up 31 points last week (their season high) vs Miami and QB Levis, who was banged up in the game, looks like he’ll be fine here. 

Tennessee’s defense is highly rated, however they’ve faced 4 offenses (Miami, NYJ, and Chicago) who rank in the bottom 7 in YPP.  The one decent offense they’ve faced was Green Bay who put up 30 points on them. 

Indy’s offense averages 6.2 YPP (5th in the NFL) and 24 PPG.  We would expect the Colts to have success here offensively.  Both QB’s should have time to operate in the pocket as these defenses rank 29th and 30th in pressure rate. 

These 2 AFC South rivals have met 10 times since the start of the 2019 season and they’ve averaged 48 total points in those games.  We like the Over on Sunday as our free NFL bet. 

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New Orleans Saints vs Kansas City Chiefs Preview | MNF | 10-7-24

MNF Saints vs. Chiefs Prediction | Player Prop bets | October 7th 2024

Game Overview: The Kansas City Chiefs, coming off an impressive start with a 4-0 record, are hosting the New Orleans Saints, who stand at 2-2, in a Monday Night Football showdown at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. This game marks a significant intersection of two teams with contrasting fortunes, with the Chiefs defending their Super Bowl title and the Saints looking to break their losing streak against Kansas City.

Team Analysis:

  • Kansas City Chiefs:
    • Record: 4-0, showcasing resilience with all wins by seven points or less.
    • Offense: Led by Patrick Mahomes, who has been pivotal in the Chiefs’ close victories. However, they’ve faced challenges with injuries, notably to wide receiver Rashee Rice, RB’s Edwards-Helaire and Pacheo. Kansas City ranks near league average in most offensive statistical categories.
    • Defense: The Chiefs defense allows just 99 rushing yards per game which is good for 8th best in the NFL. They give up just 3.8 yards per game, 4th best. KC’s defense is 25th in yards per completion at 10.7.
  • New Orleans Saints:
    • Record: 2-2, with recent games decided by narrow margins, indicating competitive but inconsistent play.
    • Offense: Derek Carr and Alvin Kamara lead an offense that ranks well in rushing but struggles more in passing efficiency. New Orleans is 1st in rushing attempts per game, 7th in total rushing yards per game but 18th in rushing yards per attempt.
    • Defense: Stronger against the pass but weaker against the run, which could be tested by Mahomes. New Orleans allows 5.8 yards per play (22nd) and 4.8 yards per rush. They have the 8th best pass defense when it comes to opposing QB’s completion percentage at 62.3%.

Betting Insights:

  • Spread: The Chiefs are favored by 5.5 points.
  • Over/Under: Set at 43

Key Betting Angles:

  • Chiefs’ Home Performance: The Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium has been formidable, with a 33-10 SU record since 2020. This season KC has a pair of wins at home over Baltimore by 7-points and Cincinnati by 1pt.
  • Saints’ Road Strategy: The Saints are coming off a last second road loss to the Falcons 24-26 but do own a road win in Dallas 44-19. With QB Derek Carr under center, the Saints are 5-6 SU on the road, 5-5-1 ATS.
  • Player Prop Bet: Kansas City Chiefs kicker Harrison Butker Over 1.5 made field goals. Butker has made 2 or more in every game this season and is averaging 2.33 per game. He is 88.9% on field goals this season with his only miss coming from 65 yards. Last season Butker was 33 of 35 on the year or 94.3%. He has been Over this number in 7 of his last eight games.

Betting Markets: There is more money coming in on the Over in this game which is starting to influence the Books and drive this total up. 43 is a key number so we’re not sure if this moves higher than that. Betting markets are slightly favoring the Saints with more money and tickets on New Orleans which has moved the number from the opening number of KC -6.5 to the current line of -5.5.

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RAVENS vs COWBOYS PREDICTION | FREE BET | 9-22-24

NFL FREE BET – Baltimore Ravens -1 vs. Dallas Cowboys prediction, Sunday Sept 22nd 2024

The Ravens were many experts picks and one of the betting favorites to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl this season. With a loss on Sunday the Ravens would fall to 0-3 SU and be in serious trouble of missing the postseason.

Dallas won their opener in Cleveland against a bad Browns team then were destroyed last week at home by the Saints. New Orleans ran through the Dallas D for 190 yards while Saints QB Carr dissected them through the air with 11/16 passing for 242 yards.

Baltimore will pound the football against the soft interior of the Cowboys defense that ranked in the bottom half of the league in stopping the run in 2023. Baltimore led the league in rushing yards a year ago at 156.4 at 5.0YPR. This season the Ravens are averaging 5.7YPR (3rd) and 168 rushing yards per game. The Ravens have outgained their first two opponents by over 200+ total yards and have the 11th best yards per play differential in the NFL.

In comparison, the Cowboys have a negative yards per play differential of -0.4. The Ravens defense has allowed less than a 50-yards rushing average in their first two games and will bottle up a Cowboys run game that averages just 85RYPG.

The Cowboys will want to throw often in this game, but the Ravens pass defense allowed the fewest passing yards per attempt last season and ranked 8th in passing yards allowed p/game.

Baltimore clearly has the coaching advantage and Lamar Jackson has owned the NFC with a 18-1 ATS run. Back the desperate team here.

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Kansas City Chiefs vs Atlanta Falcons Predictions | September 22nd 2024

Chiefs vs Falcons preview

NFL Game Preview: Atlanta Falcons vs. Kansas City Chiefs – September 22, 2024

ASAWins Team breaks down the Sunday Night game.

Chiefs vs Falcons Prediction Game Details:

  • Date: Sunday, September 22, 2024
  • Time: 8:20 PM EST
  • Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA

Betting Odds:

  • Spread: Kansas City Chiefs -3, Atlanta Falcons +3
  • Over/Under: 46.5
  • Moneyline: Chiefs -170, Falcons +145

Injury Updates:

Kansas City Chiefs:

  • Isiah Pacheco is out with an ankle injury, which could significantly impact the Chiefs’ running game.
  • Hollywood Brown and Clyde Edwards-Helaire are also sidelined, with both on the Injured Reserve, severely limiting the Chiefs’ offensive options in the receiving and running games.

Atlanta Falcons:

  • Nate Landman and Milo Eifler are out, impacting the linebacker depth for the Falcons.

Game Analysis:

Chiefs’ Offense: Despite injuries, Patrick Mahomes continues to lead one of the most dynamic offenses in the NFL. With Rashee Rice stepping up in the absence of top receivers, the Chiefs might lean heavily on Rice and Travis Kelce for aerial dominance. The running game, however, faces a significant challenge with Pacheco out, possibly relying more on Carson Steele and Samaje Perine to manage the ground game.

Falcons’ Offense: The Falcons come off a dramatic victory against the Eagles, where Kirk Cousins showed resilience, throwing for 396 yards. Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier have been pivotal in the run game, providing a balanced attack that could exploit the Chiefs’ defense, which has shown vulnerabilities against strong running teams.

Defensive Matchup: The Chiefs’ defense, despite missing key players, has managed to keep games competitive. However, their performance against the run might be tested by the Falcons’ robust running backs. Conversely, the Falcons’ defense needs to contain Mahomes, which is easier said than done, but their recent performance suggests they might have a strategy to at least keep the game close.

Key Betting Insights:

  • The Chiefs, as road favorites of 3 or more points following a win, have not covered the spread effectively in recent years. The Falcons though have been an uninspiring home dog with a 6-7 ATS in that role since 2020.
  • The over/under set at 46.5 reflects expectations of a high-scoring affair, considering both teams’ offensive capabilities, though the Chiefs’ injuries might suggest a lower scoring game if their offense struggles.

Fantasy and Player Insights:

  • Rashee Rice and Travis Kelce for the Chiefs, along with Bijan Robinson and Kyle Pitts for the Falcons, are expected to be key fantasy performers. However, Kirk Cousins might be a riskier start given the Chiefs’ defensive reputation.

Chiefs vs Falcons prediction Conclusion: This game pits the offensive prowess of the Chiefs against an improving Falcons team looking to make a statement. This game could come down to whomever has the football last. The over/under might lean towards the under given the injury situation, but with Mahomes under center, one can never count out a high-scoring affair. This game could go either way, making it one of the must-watch games of Week 3.

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