Tag: NFL bets

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NFL Free Bet | 6-Point Teaser | Ravens + Titans

NFL 6-POINT TEASER BET – Baltimore Ravens -.5 / Tennessee Titans +8.5

Baltimore is the #1 ranked DVOA team in the NFL with the 4th ranked offense and 2nd ranked defense and have the best overall scoring differential in the NFL at +12.8PPG.

The Ravens have been even better at home with an average +/- of +19.8PPG.

In their last two home games the Ravens have beaten two upper echelon teams from the NFC the Seahawks and Lions by a combined 75-9.

Cleveland has a top tier defense ranked #1 in DVOA but the offense has struggled with a ranking of 28th.

The Browns average just 4.6YPP on the season while allowing 4.3 for a net differential of +0.3.

In comparison, The Ravens average 5.7YPP on offense and allow just 4.1YPP for net differential of +1.6YPP.

These two teams met earlier in the season in Cleveland with the Ravens winning 28-3 with a +130 yardage advantage.

We like the Ravens to win.

The second part of this two team 6PT Teaser leg is on Tennessee + over a TD against Tampa Bay.

Tennessee with coach Vrabel have been outstanding as an underdog with a 29-19-1 ATS record or 60.4%.

Conversely, Tampa Bay as a favorite is just 5-10-1 ATS their last 16 in that role.

Tampa Bay has an average Margin of Victory of -1.1PPG. Tennessee has a negative differential of -1.5PPG.

The Titans are 3-5 SU on the season but only one of those losses have been by more than 9-points.

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TNF Free Bet – Bears vs. Commanders – October 5th 2023

ASA FREE PLAY 1ST HALF TOTAL BET – OVER 21.5 CHICAGO BEARS @ WASHINGTON COMMANDERS

These teams should put up plenty of points here in the first half to cash this over. Games involving the Bears this season have averaged 25.3 total points per game by halftime.

Ironically, games involving the Commanders have averaged that exact same total of 25.3PPG.

Defensively Washington is solid against the Pass but susceptible against the run. The Commanders allow 4.5 Yards Per Rush (26th) and 122.5RYPG (21st). The Bears can exploit that weakness with their rushing offense that is 5th in Yards Per Rush at 4.7 and 13th in overall rushing YPG.

Washington allows 30PPG (29th) which is a full TD more than league average.

While we are on the subject of defense….

The Bears defense allows 6.2YPPL which ranks 29th in the league. They give up 34.2PPG which is 2nd to last in the league.

Washington hasn’t been great offensively but QB Howell should have success here against a Bears Pass D is 32nd in Yards Per Completion, 31st in Yards Per Pass Attempt and 31st in opposing quarterbacks QBR.

It all adds up to plenty of points in the 1st half of this game and we will back the OVER 21.5 1st HALF.

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NFL FREE BET | OCT 1st 2023

ASA’S FREE NFL BET – OVER 46.5 DENVER BRONCOS AT CHICAGO BEARS, 1PM ET

Two terrible defenses going at it in this one will give both offenses plenty of opportunities. Denver ranks last in YPP allowed at over 7.0 and Chicago ranks 30th giving up 6.0 YPP. The Broncos defensively stats took a big hit last week allowing Miami to score 70 points but lets not forget the week prior they allowed Washington to score 35 points to a Washington team that scored 23 total points in their other 2 games vs teams not named Denver. Over 56% of opponents possessions vs the Broncos this season have either reached the red zone or scored prior to that which is the worst rate in the league. We think Chicago’s offense lays it all on the line here with nothing to lose and plays well. They thrive on the ground with their mobile QB Fields and Denver ranks 31st allowing 5.6 YPC on the season. In their only other home game this season the Bears put up 20 points on GB and we look for them to exceed that number today. Denver should have plenty of scoring opportunities as well. The Broncos offense has actually been solid averaging 5.7 YPP which is 8th in the NFL. QB Wilson is quietly having a solid season and he’ll be facing a Chicago secondary that ranks 30th in passing YPG allowed and 31st in yards per pass attempt. Chicago’s defense has allowed 27 points or more in every game this season and dating back to last year they’ve allowed at least 25 points in 13 consecutive games. Perfect weather here with temps in the mid 70’s and light winds. Both offenses should thrive in this one and we’re going Over the total.

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Lions vs. Packers Predictions – Player Props – Sept 28th 2023

Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers – Thursday, Sept 28th 2023

Detroit Lions -1.5 | Over-Under 45.5

Green Bay Packers

1st HALF LINE – Lions -.5 | O/U 22

Team Totals – Lions O/U 23.5 – Packers O/U 21.5

Detroit Lions 2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS

Green Bay Packers 2-1 SU, 3-0 ATS

Thursday Night Player Props

Jordan Love Under 34 yards Longest Passing Play

Love has been solid in his first three starts for the Packers but has not hit on many big plays. Detroit ranks 10th (62.7%) in opponent completion percentage and Love is only completing 53% of his passes anyway. At 6.8 yards per attempt it shows his willingness to throw underneath and settle for short gains. In a short week, with multiple offensive playmakers questionable, we expect Love to continue to focus on short passes that keep Green Bay ahead of the chains. 

Romeo Doubs Over Anytime TD

Doubs has 3 touchdowns in 3 games in 2023. He has been the main redzone target for Jordan Love and feels like the Davante Adams replacement for Matt LaFleuer in that area. Aaron Jones is the only other reliable redzone threat for the Packers and his status is up in air. AJ Dillion has been flat out terrible in Jones’ absence so look for Doubs to again capitalize when Green Bay gets into scoring territory. 

Jared Goff Over .5 INTs

Having thrown an interception in both of his previous two games, we feel the trend continues on a short week. Overall, Goff has been a good if not great QB since becoming the starter in Detroit. The passing volume that has increased due to his play brings in more opportunity for mistakes however. Green Bay has a +2 turnover differential so far while Detroit has a -3 differential. Goff has thrown 30+ passes in all three games this year, so a high volume night is likely in store again, leaving plenty of room for a mistake in front of a rocking Lambeau Field crowd.  

Amon-Ra St. Brown Over 72.5 Rec Yards 

Averaging over 91 yards per game this season, Amon-Ra will benefit greatly if Jaire Alexander misses his second straight game. Regardless, the Lions will target St. Brown early and often and love hitting him on deep crossing routes off of play action. He is becoming one of the elite WRs in the league and a true number one for the Lions. Green Bay ranks 10th in passing yards allowed per game, but that number is skewed from playing some of the worst QBs in the league the first three weeks. Another 100 yards day could be in store for St. Brown, but 73 yards is very attainable even against a Packers defense that has played well to start the year. 

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Seattle Seahawks Prediction | NFC West | Total Wins

Seattle Seahawks Prediction UNDER 9.5 WINS | NFC WEST | August 31st

ASA’s NFL WIN TOTAL – UNDER 9.5 WINS SEATTLE SEAHAWKS -155

Again, you will want to shop for the best Under number on the Seahawks or consider betting an alternate number with varying juice. We found 9.5 wins at Draftkings with a higher money line of minus -155. We are in the minority here with this Under play as I’ve listened to numerous ‘talking heads’ on the NFL TV programs predict Over the number for Seattle, but we are contrarian here. Seattle won 9 games a season ago but had an average +/- of minus -0.7PPG which was 15th in the league. Those nine victories came against teams with a combined 58-94-1 straight up record and only three of those W’s came against a team with a winning record. In fact, they also suffered 5 losses to teams that had losing records including 7-10 Carolina, 6-11 Las Vegas, 8-9 Tampa Bay, 7-10 New Orleans and 7-10 Atlanta. The Seahawks we decent offensively as they amassed 5,976 total yards of offense in 2022 (12th most), but unfortunately the defense gave up the 7th most total yards at 6,149. A plus +2 turnover differential on the season helped mitigate the discrepancy in their offensive/defensive numbers. Geno Smith had a career year as the Seahawks starting QB last season with a QBR of 62.8, 4,282 total passing yards with 30 TD’s to 11 INT’s. Early in his career with the Jets when he played in 14 or more games, he threw 25 total TD’s in two seasons with 34 total interceptions. Prior to last season, Smith had played a total of 15 games in his career from 2015 through 2021 so we’re not ready to buy in on him just yet. Seattle will have to face one of the toughest schedules in the league this season as the Hawks get the NFC and AFC East which are the two best divisions in football. Along with those two East Divisions they face the Lions and Titans on the road which won’t be easy wins. Our Seattle Seahawks prediction is for them to finish at 8-9 this season and miss out on the playoffs.

OTHER BETTING OPTIONS:

  • GENO SMITH UNDER 3900.5 PASSING YARDS +105 – This is a number you’ll find at Draftkings, while a few other Books are carrying a much lower number of 3800. Clearly this wager ties into our Under bet on Seattle’s win total for the season as we expect a regression from Smith and the passing game. When Seattle has been at their best under Pete Carroll is when they feature a run-first mentality. Going back to 2012 the Seahawks have ranked top 3 in rushing attempts per game six times. In 2013 when they won the Super Bowl, they were 2nd in rushing attempts per game at 31.4. In 2014 they were also 2nd in rushing attempts per game and lost in the Super Bowl. Seattle was 22nd in rushing attempts last season but should have an improved rushing attack with Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet.

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