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Colts vs Titans Prediction | Oct 13 2024

ASA FREE PLAY ON Over 43 Points – Indianapolis Colts vs Tennessee Titans, Sunday at 1 PM ET

Indy’s defense is a wreck right now.  They’ve allowed 61 points over their last 2 weeks and rank dead last in total defense allowing 420 YPG.  They’ve had 2 games where they held their opponents under 24 points and that was vs Green Bay when the Packers ran the ball 55 times with back up QB Willis getting his first start and vs Chicago who ranks 29th in YPP offense.  Even in those games GB tallied 383 yards and Chicago 395 yards so they both had opportunities to put up more points. 

Indy ranks dead last in the NFL allowing opponents to average 38 yards per drive.  The Titans have some offensive confidence coming into this game after putting up 31 points last week (their season high) vs Miami and QB Levis, who was banged up in the game, looks like he’ll be fine here. 

Tennessee’s defense is highly rated, however they’ve faced 4 offenses (Miami, NYJ, and Chicago) who rank in the bottom 7 in YPP.  The one decent offense they’ve faced was Green Bay who put up 30 points on them. 

Indy’s offense averages 6.2 YPP (5th in the NFL) and 24 PPG.  We would expect the Colts to have success here offensively.  Both QB’s should have time to operate in the pocket as these defenses rank 29th and 30th in pressure rate. 

These 2 AFC South rivals have met 10 times since the start of the 2019 season and they’ve averaged 48 total points in those games.  We like the Over on Sunday as our free NFL bet. 

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New Orleans Saints vs Kansas City Chiefs Preview | MNF | 10-7-24

MNF Saints vs. Chiefs Prediction | Player Prop bets | October 7th 2024

Game Overview: The Kansas City Chiefs, coming off an impressive start with a 4-0 record, are hosting the New Orleans Saints, who stand at 2-2, in a Monday Night Football showdown at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. This game marks a significant intersection of two teams with contrasting fortunes, with the Chiefs defending their Super Bowl title and the Saints looking to break their losing streak against Kansas City.

Team Analysis:

  • Kansas City Chiefs:
    • Record: 4-0, showcasing resilience with all wins by seven points or less.
    • Offense: Led by Patrick Mahomes, who has been pivotal in the Chiefs’ close victories. However, they’ve faced challenges with injuries, notably to wide receiver Rashee Rice, RB’s Edwards-Helaire and Pacheo. Kansas City ranks near league average in most offensive statistical categories.
    • Defense: The Chiefs defense allows just 99 rushing yards per game which is good for 8th best in the NFL. They give up just 3.8 yards per game, 4th best. KC’s defense is 25th in yards per completion at 10.7.
  • New Orleans Saints:
    • Record: 2-2, with recent games decided by narrow margins, indicating competitive but inconsistent play.
    • Offense: Derek Carr and Alvin Kamara lead an offense that ranks well in rushing but struggles more in passing efficiency. New Orleans is 1st in rushing attempts per game, 7th in total rushing yards per game but 18th in rushing yards per attempt.
    • Defense: Stronger against the pass but weaker against the run, which could be tested by Mahomes. New Orleans allows 5.8 yards per play (22nd) and 4.8 yards per rush. They have the 8th best pass defense when it comes to opposing QB’s completion percentage at 62.3%.

Betting Insights:

  • Spread: The Chiefs are favored by 5.5 points.
  • Over/Under: Set at 43

Key Betting Angles:

  • Chiefs’ Home Performance: The Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium has been formidable, with a 33-10 SU record since 2020. This season KC has a pair of wins at home over Baltimore by 7-points and Cincinnati by 1pt.
  • Saints’ Road Strategy: The Saints are coming off a last second road loss to the Falcons 24-26 but do own a road win in Dallas 44-19. With QB Derek Carr under center, the Saints are 5-6 SU on the road, 5-5-1 ATS.
  • Player Prop Bet: Kansas City Chiefs kicker Harrison Butker Over 1.5 made field goals. Butker has made 2 or more in every game this season and is averaging 2.33 per game. He is 88.9% on field goals this season with his only miss coming from 65 yards. Last season Butker was 33 of 35 on the year or 94.3%. He has been Over this number in 7 of his last eight games.

Betting Markets: There is more money coming in on the Over in this game which is starting to influence the Books and drive this total up. 43 is a key number so we’re not sure if this moves higher than that. Betting markets are slightly favoring the Saints with more money and tickets on New Orleans which has moved the number from the opening number of KC -6.5 to the current line of -5.5.

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Dallas Cowboys vs Pittsburgh Steelers Prediction | Oct 6th 2024

Cowboys vs Steelers Preview – Player Props

Game Preview:

  • Date: October 6, 2024
  • Time: 8:20 PM ET
  • Location: Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

Team Analysis:

  • Dallas Cowboys (2-2): Coming off a narrow victory against the New York Giants, the Cowboys are looking to solidify their standing in the NFC East. However, they face significant challenges with key defensive players out, including Micah Parsons and Demarcus Lawrence. This could severely hamper their ability to pressure Justin Fields, making their pass defense particularly vulnerable.
  • Pittsburgh Steelers (3-1): The Steelers are riding high with Justin Fields at quarterback, showing improvement over last year’s performance. Their defense, traditionally one of the league’s best, is expected to exploit the Cowboys’ weakened defensive line. However, their recent loss against the Colts might be a concern, showing they’re not invulnerable.

Key Betting Insights:

  • Spread: The Steelers are favored by 2.5 points at home, reflecting their solid start and the Cowboys’ injury woes. This line movement from an initial 1.5 points indicates growing confidence in Pittsburgh’s ability to cover against a decimated Cowboys defense.
  • Over/Under: Set at 44 points, the total reflects a game that might not see a high-scoring affair due to strong defensive play, especially from Pittsburgh, but with potential for the Steelers to exploit Dallas’s weakened defense.
  • Moneyline: Steelers are listed at -145 to win outright, showing a clear market preference for Pittsburgh, despite the public leaning towards Dallas in terms of bet volume.
  • Public Betting: Interestingly, while more bets are placed on the Cowboys to cover, the money is heavier on the Steelers, suggesting sharp bettors might see value in Pittsburgh covering or winning outright.

Trends and Predictions:

  • Cowboys: Their offense has been inconsistent, with Dak Prescott performing well but needing support from a struggling rushing game. The absence of key defensive players might force them to rely more on their passing game, which could be a problem versus this Steelers D that ranks 5th in completions allowed and 7th in completion percentage allowed.
  • Steelers: Justin Fields has been a revelation, with his dual-threat capabilities potentially exploiting the Cowboys’ defensive gaps. George Pickens has emerged as a primary receiver with 29 targets this season, and is in a in favorable matchups like this one, against a Cowboys defense that ranks 27 in yards/competion at 11.0.

Betting Picks – Player props:

Look at Justin Fields for over 186.5 passing yards if you believe he’ll have to throw more due to the Cowboys’ defensive adjustments. Fields has thrown fover over this number in his last two games against the Chargers and Colts with 245 and 312 passing yards. He attempted over 30 in both games indicating the coaching staff is gaining confidence in his throwing ability.

Steelers WR George Pickens could be a good bet for over his receiving yards (53.5), given his recent performance and the matchup. George Pickens has emerged as a primary receiver with 29 targets this season, and is in a in favorable matchups, against a Cowboys defense that ranks 27 in yards/competion at 11.0. Pickens is averaging 71 receiving yards per game.

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Cowboys vs Giants preview | 9-26-24

Cowboys vs Giants preview

NFL Betting Preview: Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants – September 26, 2024

Cowboys vs Giants Preview Game Overview: The Dallas Cowboys, with a record of 1-2, are set to clash with the New York Giants, also standing at 1-2, in what promises to be a pivotal NFC East matchup on Thursday Night Football at MetLife Stadium. This game could be crucial for both teams looking to gain ground in a competitive division.

Betting Lines and Odds:

  • Spread: Cowboys -4.5
  • Moneyline: Cowboys -300, Giants +250
  • Over/Under: 45 points

Key Betting Insights:

  • Trend Analysis: The Cowboys are 1/2 SU/ATS and coming off an upset loss at home to the Ravens. The Giants, despite their record, have shown moments of competitiveness, and stand 1-2 SU/ATS with a win last week in Cleveland.
  • Team Performance:
    • Dallas Cowboys: Dak Prescott has been efficient, throwing for 851 yards with 4 touchdowns and 2 INT’s, but the defense has been a concern, particularly against the run allowing 187.5 rushing YPG. This could play into the Giants’ strategy if they can establish their ground game, which has been a problem as they rush for just 105YPG.
    • New York Giants: The Giants have leaned on Devin Singletary, who’s been effective with 197 rushing yards on 4.1 yards per carry. However, QB Danny Jones and their passing game needs to step up against a Cowboys defense that’s been exploited for 44 and 28-points in two straight games.
  • Player Props:
    • Dak Prescott: In the second meeting of the season last year, Prescott threw for 404 yards with 4 TD’s and one INT in a Cowboys 49-17 win against the Giants. We may take a look at Over Prescott’s total passing yards Over in this game against a Giants defense allowign the 13th most passing YPG in 2024.
    • CeeDee Lamb: As a key option for Prescott with 24 targets this season, Lamb’s receiving yards of 78.5 offer value. Lamb and Prescott got into a heated exchange last week and Prescott may focus on getting Lamb the ball against the Giants. Lamb is averaging 101.1 receiving yards p/game in his last 10 games. The last time he faced NY he was targeted 14 times and finished with 151-receiving yards.
    • Jake Ferguson: Ferguson came back last week after missing a game with an injury and received 11 targets from Prescott with 6 receptions for 95-yards. We would consider hit Over 4.5 recepions made before total yardage.
  • Public Sentiment and Betting Patterns:
    • Early money has slightly favored the Cowboys, but there’s significant interest in the Giants covering the spread, especially with home-field advantage in play.
  • Injury Reports and Team News:
    • Keep an eye on the injury report, particularly for key defensive players on both sides, which could significantly impact the game’s flow and betting lines.

Betting Insights:

  • Spread: The Cowboys opened (-5.5) are 9-1 SU and 7-3 ATS the last ten meetings with the Giants and have won 6 in a row.
  • Over/Under: The total opened at 43.5 points. This series is on a 7-3 Over run with last years two games finishing with 40 total points on this field and 66-points when they met in Dallas. The last 4 meetings in New York have stayed Under.
  • Prop Bets: Focus on Prescott’s passing stats and Lamb’s receiving yards, along with Ferguson’s targets in this one, against this Giants secondary that allowed 10.0-yards per reception a year ago, 9th highest number in the NFL. Maybe also, consider Singletary’s rushing yards or carries if the Giants commit to the running game.

Conclusion: Always consider the latest team news, especially regarding injuries, which could sway the game’s outcome significantly. Remember, while trends and stats guide, football’s unpredictability means no bet is guaranteed. Enjoy the game and bet responsibly!

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Kansas City Chiefs vs Atlanta Falcons Predictions | September 22nd 2024

Chiefs vs Falcons preview

NFL Game Preview: Atlanta Falcons vs. Kansas City Chiefs – September 22, 2024

ASAWins Team breaks down the Sunday Night game.

Chiefs vs Falcons Prediction Game Details:

  • Date: Sunday, September 22, 2024
  • Time: 8:20 PM EST
  • Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA

Betting Odds:

  • Spread: Kansas City Chiefs -3, Atlanta Falcons +3
  • Over/Under: 46.5
  • Moneyline: Chiefs -170, Falcons +145

Injury Updates:

Kansas City Chiefs:

  • Isiah Pacheco is out with an ankle injury, which could significantly impact the Chiefs’ running game.
  • Hollywood Brown and Clyde Edwards-Helaire are also sidelined, with both on the Injured Reserve, severely limiting the Chiefs’ offensive options in the receiving and running games.

Atlanta Falcons:

  • Nate Landman and Milo Eifler are out, impacting the linebacker depth for the Falcons.

Game Analysis:

Chiefs’ Offense: Despite injuries, Patrick Mahomes continues to lead one of the most dynamic offenses in the NFL. With Rashee Rice stepping up in the absence of top receivers, the Chiefs might lean heavily on Rice and Travis Kelce for aerial dominance. The running game, however, faces a significant challenge with Pacheco out, possibly relying more on Carson Steele and Samaje Perine to manage the ground game.

Falcons’ Offense: The Falcons come off a dramatic victory against the Eagles, where Kirk Cousins showed resilience, throwing for 396 yards. Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier have been pivotal in the run game, providing a balanced attack that could exploit the Chiefs’ defense, which has shown vulnerabilities against strong running teams.

Defensive Matchup: The Chiefs’ defense, despite missing key players, has managed to keep games competitive. However, their performance against the run might be tested by the Falcons’ robust running backs. Conversely, the Falcons’ defense needs to contain Mahomes, which is easier said than done, but their recent performance suggests they might have a strategy to at least keep the game close.

Key Betting Insights:

  • The Chiefs, as road favorites of 3 or more points following a win, have not covered the spread effectively in recent years. The Falcons though have been an uninspiring home dog with a 6-7 ATS in that role since 2020.
  • The over/under set at 46.5 reflects expectations of a high-scoring affair, considering both teams’ offensive capabilities, though the Chiefs’ injuries might suggest a lower scoring game if their offense struggles.

Fantasy and Player Insights:

  • Rashee Rice and Travis Kelce for the Chiefs, along with Bijan Robinson and Kyle Pitts for the Falcons, are expected to be key fantasy performers. However, Kirk Cousins might be a riskier start given the Chiefs’ defensive reputation.

Chiefs vs Falcons prediction Conclusion: This game pits the offensive prowess of the Chiefs against an improving Falcons team looking to make a statement. This game could come down to whomever has the football last. The over/under might lean towards the under given the injury situation, but with Mahomes under center, one can never count out a high-scoring affair. This game could go either way, making it one of the must-watch games of Week 3.

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