Tag: nfl best bets

ASA’s NFC WEST WIN TOTAL PROJECTION

Seattle Seahawks – UNDER 7.5 Wins (+115)

The Seahawks finished last season with a record of 9-8 but they had a negative point differential (-38) and they were outgained by nearly 50 YPG.  Based on those stats alone, Seattle should have won only 7 games last season and that’s where we think they land in 2024 (7 or fewer wins).  They benefited from a positive turnover margin last season and only won 3 games by more than a TD in 2023 vs the 3 of the worst teams in the NFL, Carolina (2 wins last season), Arizona (4 wins last season), and the NY Giants (6 wins last season).  Six of Seattle’s wins last year came by 4 points or fewer or in OT and they were outgained in 5 of those tight 6 wins.  The offense finished 17^th in points scored and 22^nd in total yardage and we look for the Seahawks to regress on that side of the ball.  The offensive line is ranked 31^st (out of 32 teams) by PFF heading into the season and QB Geno Smith took a big step back last season.  Smith had 10 fewer TD’s a year ago compared to 2022 and his completion percentage dropped by 5%.  They had very little running game last season (92 YPG rushing) and operating behind a poor Oline could be problematic for Smith and Company.  The defense allowed the 9^th most points in 2023 along with the 3^rd most yards gained by opponents despite finishing with a winning record.  Seattle has a new head coach, Mike McDonald, who has never been a head man at any level, so some growing pains are expected.  His coordinators are Ryan Grubb (OC) who has never coached in the NFL and Aden Durdy (DC) who has never been a DC in the NFL.  They faced the 11^th most difficult schedule according to PFF and we look for this Seattle team to struggle in 2024.

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