Tag: NFC South Prediction

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NFC South Prediction | Atlanta Falcons | 9-5-2024

ASA’s NFC SOUTH PREDICTION – WIN TOTAL PROJECTION

NFC South Prediction – Atlanta Falcons – OVER 9.5 Wins (-130)

The Falcons won just 7 games last season yet their win total this year has jumped to 9.5.  We believe that is warranted and even a bit light as our projections have them winning at least 10 games.  They face the easiest schedule in the NFL according to PFF (including 9 home games) and we look for big improvement from their offense which averaged just 19 PPG last year but ranked in the top half of the NFL in YPG and YPP. 

Their offense wasn’t efficient last season averaging just 1 point for every 17.7 yards gained (29th in the NFL) but they should rank much higher in that category this year with veteran QB Kirk Cousins at the helm.  He will operate behind an offensive line that ranks in the top 5 in the NFL by most analysts and all 5 starters return from a year ago.  The offensive weapons are very good with RB Robinson, WR’s London, Mooney, and Moore to go along with TE Pitts.  This offense should be very good. 

Defensively they were decent last year ranking in the top 10 in YPP and YPG allowed and if they are just average this year, the offense should be able to outscore opponents.  Plus, new head coach Raheem Morris is a high level defensive mind so that side of the ball should be OK. 

Atlanta has terrible turnover luck last season finishing with a -12 TO margin which was 31st in the NFL.  It’s almost impossible to have a solid season in this league when your TO margin is that poor.  We expect that to be much better this year with Cousins under center after last year’s Falcon QB’s (Ridder & Heinecke) combined to throw 17 interceptions. 

The NFC South has been the worst division in football the last few years with Tampa finishing in 1st place with 8 wins (in 2022) and 9 wins (in 2023).  Besides Atlanta, there isn’t a single team in this division expect to have a winning record.  We like the Birds to take a big step this year and rule the NFC.

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NFC South Prediction | Panthers Win Total

NFC SOUTH Prediction UNDER 7.5 WINS Carolina Panthers – Sept 5th 2023 – By ASA

NFL WIN TOTAL – UNDER 7.5 WINS CAROLINA PANTHERS -115

This is my least-liked NFL win total projection but in my opinion it’s the best of the NFC South. The Carolina Panthers have decided to ‘hitch their wagon’ to rookie QB Bryce Young as they’ve named him QB1 heading into the regular season. The 5-foot-10 200-pounder is undersized by today’s quarterback standards and even though he was a winner in college the transition to the NFL may not happen and will at a minimum take time. We didn’t see a lot of Young in the preseason but what we did see wasn’t overly impressive. He was 14 of 24 for less than 130 total yards and 1 TD. Carolina won 7 games last season in the NFC South but it will be tough to get to that number in 2023. In the South the Saints and Falcons are expected to be improved and Tampa still has a top 10’ish defense. The Panthers allowed 350.2YPG last season (22nd), 22PPG and 5.4-Yards Per Play which ranked them 17th in the NFL. Offensively the Panthers were 29th in the league in total yards per game at 306.2YPG. They averaged just 5.3-Yards Per Play (17th) and were last in the league when it came to converting 3rd downs at 3.8 per game. The Panthers had a net scoring differential of minus -1.6PPG (23rd). It doesn’t help that the Panthers have a below average offensive line by our metrics which will make life difficult for their rookie QB. The schedule isn’t terrible but the improvement by a couple of teams in the division will make it tough for the Panthers to get to 8 wins.

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  • BYRCE YOUNG UNDER 22.5 TOTAL PASSING TOUCHDOWNS -145 – This number opened 26.5 so we’ve lost some value but will still make an investment in this Under. Carolina was 12th in rushing attempts last season, were 13th in rushing TD’s per game and 10th in rushing TD percentage at 44.44%. Carolina was 28th in passing TD’s per game last season at 0.9 and 29th in passing touchdown percentage at 44.44%. The four QB’s for the Panthers last season threw 16 total touchdown passes. Don’t expect Young to get to 23.

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