ASA NBA free bet April 13

ASA play on OVER 226 San Antonio Spurs @ New Orleans Pelicans 9:30PM ET

The value is clearly on the Over here if we examine the regular season games between these two teams. In the two most recent meetings in March – Vegas posted Totals of 237 and 231-points on the two games. In February the O/U was 230. Way back in December the line was 221. **NOW 226**

If we focus on the three most recent games we see two lower scoring games with 210 and 215-points being scored with the other game finishing with 238 total points.

The pace of play was fast in all three games though as the Spurs attempted 95 FG’s per game which is significantly higher than the NBA average of 88. The Pelicans averaged 89 FGA’s per game in the three most recent meetings.

San Antonio is the 4th fastest paced team in the NBA at 100 possessions per game. The Pelicans are slower at 21st at 97.2 possessions BUT they’ve been faster since the All-Star break at 98.5.

With CJ McCollum the Pelicans own the 9th best offensive efficiency ranking in NBA at 1.181PPP.

For the season the Spurs are 13th in OEFF at 1.124PPP.

Neither team is known for their defense….

Both teams are in the bottom half of the NBA in defensive efficiency rating for the season with the Spurs ranking 16th and the Pels at 20th. Both teams rank 20th or worse in 3PT% defense

Spurs have totaled 227 or more points in 5 of their last seven. The Pelicans have scored 227 or more in 6 of their last nine.

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ASA play on: Minnesota Timberwolves -3 over Dallas Mavericks, 8PM ET

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These two teams just met in Dallas the other night with the Mavs winning 110-108 as a 1-point favorite. The natural swing of this line should have the Wolves favored by 5-points here so we’ll grab the value play with Minnesota. The Wolves shot just 40% in that game which is well below their 45.4% season average. Minnesota was just a 2-point home favorite against the Suns but lost their most recent game by 9-points.  Dallas has been very good defensively on the season with the 4th best defensive efficiency rating but rank 18th in OEFF. In comparison, the T-Wolves are 6th in OEFF, 11th in DEFF. Minnesota is 24-13 SU at home this season with the 11th best average +/- of +5.4PPG. The last meeting was chippy so expect a revenge minded Timberwolves team to get a big home win here.