Tag: NBA winners

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Philadelphia 76ers vs Milwaukee Bucks prediction – Oct 26th

NBA free bet on: Philadelphia 76ers +6 at Milwaukee Bucks, 7:30PM ET

ASA’s 76ers vs. Bucks prediction. Clearly this is a big marquee match up of two of the favorites to come out of the Eastern Conference this season and both have made big news in the offseason. The Bucks made a blockbuster trade and brought in Damian Lillard, the 76ers were dealing with distractions in James Harden. A great side story to this game is the new head coaches for both teams. The 76ers brought in former Raptors coach Nick Nurse (I desperately wanted the Bucks to hire him) while the Bucks hired first time head coach Adrian Griffin. Griffin was an assistant under Nurse in Toronto and won a ring in 2019. In regard to tonight’s game. The Bucks may have an adjustment period with Dame in the lineup with Giannis as you have two Alpha males that averaged over 31PPG a season ago. The 76ers though played without Harden enough though so they really won’t have a tough time adjusting in this opener. The Bucks were 33-11 SU at home a season ago with an average +/- of +5.9PPG. Philadelphia had the second-best road record a year ago at 29-18 SU with a plus/minus of +2.9PPG. The Underdog covered 3 of four last year in this series as every game but one was close. In fact, the dog won 3 of the four outright. This Sixers roster is still very good with a budding star in Maxey, an MVP candidate in Embiid and solid vets as a supporting cast in Beverley, Harris and Tucker. A sneaky good addition to the roster is Kelly Oubre Jr who can be a game changer when motivated. We like the veteran coach to have the upper hand tonight in what should be a close game throughout. Grab the points.

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NBA Player Prop – Dennis Schroder – Toronto Raptors

ASA NBA PLAYER PROP – OVER 16.5 POINTS+ASSIST – Dennis Schroder – Toronto Raptors

The Raptors host the Minnesota Timberwolves tonight and we expect a big game from the Raptors’ new starting PG Dennis Schroder. Toronto brought in the veteran Schroder to shore up their backcourt after losing Fred VanVleet in the offseason. He is inline for a big game tonight at home against a porous T-Wolves defense that was 20th overall in defensive efficiency ratings. Defending point guards was especially problematic for the Wolves as they were 3rd worst in the league a year ago in that department. Last year as a Lakers, Schroder totaled 18 and 17 points+assists in two games against the T-Wolves and one of those games was as a reserve in just 22 minutes of play. Last season Schroder averaged 17.1 points+assists per game, and as we mentioned those numbers come with him not being a full-time starter. In the Raptors last two preseason games he had 19 and 19 Pts+Ass in 23 and 28 minutes. In this home opener we expect Schroder to really focus on getting all of his teammates involved which will lead to a big assists number and the points are an added bonus. NBA player prop Over Points + Assists Dennis Schroder.

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NBA Free Bet – Suns vs Nuggets free pick – May 9th 2023

ASA play on OVER 228 Phoenix Suns @ Denver Nuggets 10PM ET

We expect another higher scoring game tonight between the Suns and Nuggets. In Game 3 these two teams combined for 235 total points. A big reason was the pace of play. The Suns played much faster with Chris Paul on the bench and Cameron Payne pushing the pace. These two teams combined for 192 field goal attempts which is significantly higher than the league average of 176. Then in Game 4 these two teams produced 253 total points with incredible shooting as both teams hit over 56% from the field. The Nuggets were 5th in offensive efficiency on the season, the Suns were 14th in OEFF. Both teams have averaged nearly 1.180-points per possession in the Playoffs which is 2nd and 3rd in offensive efficiency. Four of the last five meetings between these two teams has resulted in more points than today’s number and we are betting that trend continues.

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NBA Player Prop Bets – Friday, April 7th

ASA NBA Player Prop OVER 27.5 POINTS+REBOUNDS Alperen Sengun – Houston Rockets

The Hornets are sitting a host of starters in this one so expect the Rockets starters to feast on weaker competition. Sengun is on tap for a big stat night against a Hornets team that allows the 3rd most points to Centers on average at 25.1PPG and also give up the 3rd most rebounds per game at 16.6. Sengun has totaled 28+ Pts+Rebs in 4 straight games. Easy OVER call here.

ASA NBA Player Prop OVER 14.5 POINTS – James Wiseman – Detroit Pistons

The Pistons are using these late season games to evaluate Wiseman and how he fits this roster moving forward. It has led to improved production and additional minutes in recent weeks. Wiseman has scored 14 or more points in 8 of his last ten games and gets a favorable matchup with the Pacers tonight. Indiana allows the 5th most average points to Centers at 24.6PPG. The Pacers allow 53.3PPG in the paint on the season which is the 26th highest number in the league. Bet OVER here.

ASA NBA Player Prop OVER 14.5 POINTS Jabari Smith Jr. – Houston Rockets

Smith Jr. has is averaging 14.2PPG over his last ten games and has scored 14 or more points in 6 of his last nine games. His usage and minutes have remained constant even with the Rockets season a shambles. In fact, his field goat attempts have gone up so we can bank on him getting enough looks in this game to go over his scoring total. The Hornets allow on average 24.3PPG to Power Forwards on the season which is the 2nd highest average allowed in the league.

ASA NBA Champion Prediction 2022

Who’s going to win it all in 2022?

So, you’re thinking about a future wager on the NBA Championship and you’re not sure who to take? We can help you with some proven statistics that accurately predict who this year’s Champion may be and rule out the most obvious media darling pretenders.

The backbone of this research is centered around efficiency ratings/rankings compiled through the regular season.  The average overall efficiency rating this season in the NBA was 1.110 points scored/allowed per possession or 110 points per 100 possessions. The Utah Jazz were the most efficient offense in the NBA at 116.7 points per 100 possessions (1.167PPP) while the Atlanta Hawks were a close second at 1.165PPP with the Bucks (1.152), Suns (1.149) and Grizzlies (1.147PPP) rounding out the top five. The Boston Celtics own the top defensive efficiency rating in the league allowing just 107 or 1.070 points per possession this season. The other four teams that round out the top five are Golden State, Phoenix, Memphis and Miami. If history tells us anything, these numbers can be extremely useful in predicting the NBA Champion.

This trend started in 2008-09 when the Finals featured the LA Lakers with head coach Phil Jackson and HOF’er Kobe Bryant, facing the Orlando Magic and a young Dwight Howard. The Lakers won that Finals series in dominating fashion 4 games to 1.  The Lakers finished the regular season ranked 3rd in offensive efficiency ratings (OEFF) and 6th in defensive efficiency (DEFF). Orlando had efficiency numbers that ranked them 12th in OEFF and 1st in DEFF. This was the beginning of the “efficiency” Champions in the recent decades.

Below are the Finals Champions and their overall efficiency rankings for the past thirteen Championships.

NBA CHAMPIONS FROM 2008 on and OEFF/DEFF regular season efficiency rankings:

2008-09 LA Lakers (OEFF = 3rd, DEFF = 6th)

2009-10 LA Lakers (OEFF = 11th, DEFF = 4th)

2010-11 Dallas Mavericks (OEFF = 8th, DEFF = 7th)

2011-12 Miami Heat (OEFF = 8th, DEFF = 4th)

2012-13 Miami Heat (OEFF = 1st, DEFF = 9th)

2013-14 San Antonio Spurs (OEFF = 7th, DEFF = 3rd)

2014-15 Golden State Warriors (OEFF = 2nd, DEFF = 1st)

2015-16 Cleveland Cavaliers (OEFF = 3rd, DEFF = 10th)

2016-17 Golden State Warriors (OEFF = 1st, DEFF = 2nd)

2017-18 Golden State Warriors (OEFF = 3rd, DEFF = 11th)

2018-19 Toronto Raptors (OEFF = 5th, DEFF = 5TH)

2019-20 LA Lakers (OEFF = 11th, DEFF = 3rd)

2020-21 Milwaukee Bucks (OEFF = 6th, DEFF = 10th)

2022     ??????

You can see for yourself that every team that has won a Championship in the last ten years had an OEFF and DEFF in the top 11 for that season.  Using this model to predict this year’s Champion we can eliminate everyone but the following teams: Boston and Miami from the East, Phoenix, Utah and Memphis from the West. There are clearly some favorites or notable names that did not make the list. The Milwaukee Bucks are 3rd in OEFF, but rank 13th in DEFF. The Golden State Warriors have the 2nd best defensive efficiency rating but are 16th in offensive efficiency. Brooklyn who had to deal with Kyrie Irving missing half the games was 11th in OEFF, 19th in DEFF. The outlier is the Philadelphia 76ers who just missed the top eleven, ranking 12th in both OEFF/DEFF.

2021-22 Regular Season Efficiency Rankings for the Math Model “Contenders”

Boston Celtics: OEFF 7th, DEFF 1stth

Utah Jazz: OEFF 1st, DEFF 9th

Phoenix Suns: OEFF 4th, DEFF 3rd

Memphis Grizzlies: OEFF 5th, DEFF 4th

Miami Heat: OEFF 10th, DEFF 5th

If we add in another identifier of Efficiency Differential (the +/- of the Offensive/Defensive efficiency numbers) to our equation it helps narrow down the field of this year’s contenders. Going back to 2008 only one NBA Champion has had a EDIFF plus/minus of less than +5 which was the Mavericks in 2010-11 of plus +4.7. The last ten NBA Champions have produced a EDIFF +/- of 5.7 or better during the regular season. If we apply that logic to this year’s field we narrow down our potential winner to four teams.

2021-22 Effficiency Differential leaders during the regular season:

1st Phoenix Suns +7.5

2nd Boston Celtics +7.4

3rd Utah Jazz +6.2

4th Memphis Grizzlies +5.7

Using the aforementioned guidelines our Money is on…the Phoenix Suns +260

The Phoenix Suns lost to the Bucks in the NBA Finals last season, so they’ve experience what it takes to get to the Finals and tasted bitter defeat. The Suns were favored in 69 of their 82 games during the regular season and finished the year at 64-18 SU with a +/- of 7.5PPG, which was best in the league. Phoenix owns home court throughout the Playoffs, and they were 32-9 SU at home with an average Margin of Victory of +8.9PPG. If we look at Efficiency Differential, of the last eight NBA Champions, 3 have finished the regular season with the best +/- EDIFF. Phoenix was that team this season with an EDIFF of +7.5. The Suns have veteran point guard Chris Paul to guide the ship, a scoring machine in Devin Booker who is capable of carrying a team offensively and a rim protector and inside presence in Deandre Ayton. Then add in a mix of capable role players in Bridges, Crowder, Payne and Johnson and you have a team poised to win it all.

LONGSHOT: If you are looking for a better return on your investment, the UTAH JAZZ +$2500 are an intriguing long-shot proposition. The Jazz didn’t play well down the stretch of the regular season and are flying under the radar right now. But let’s look at the whole body of work or the season numbers for our prediction. The Jazz were favored in more games this season than the Suns with 74 of 82 games laying points. They own the 3rd best overall average Margin of Victory at +6PPG. The Jazz were 3rd this season in EDIFF and eight of the last thirteen NBA Champs have ranked 3rd or better in that category. Obviously, the Jazz have a similar roster to the Suns with a proven scorer in Donovan Mitchell, the best defensive center in the league in Gobert along with vets Mike Conley and Bojan Bogdanovic. Remember a few years ago when Mitchell was nearly unstoppable in the postseason? It will take a performance like that from him again along with the rest of the roster, but they clearly have the statistical support to win it all.

Overall, this shapes up to be one of the best NBA playoffs in a long time and we can’t wait! Best of luck with all your wagers.