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ASA play on: Sacramento Kings -3.5 vs Toronto Raptors, 10PM ET
The Kings are quietly sitting 3rd in the Western Conference at 27-19 and continue to fly under the radar. Sacramento is 16-10 SU at home with a +/- of +6.6PPG which is the 6th best average in the NBA. Toronto is 6-15 SU away from home this season with an average Margin of Victory of minus -2.2PPG. The Raptors are 1-3 ATS their last four on the road. You’ll also be surprised to know the Kings have been solid ATS as a favorite this season. When laying less than double-digits the Kings have rewarded backers with a 14-8 ATS record. Sacramento is the #1 rated offensive efficiency team at home this season at 1.227-points per possession, whereas the Raptors rank 15th on the road in OEFF. The Raptors do hold an edge defensively but it’s not as great a difference as the offensive numbers that favor the Kings. Sacramento is 5-1 SU their last six at home and the five wins came by 21.6PPG. We like them here minus the short number.
ASA Team Total UNDER 124.5 POINTS – GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS
The Warriors have put up some big scores in recent games, but they came against bad defensive teams. Today they face the #1 rated defensive efficiency team in the Grizzlies who allow just 1.099-points per possession. The Warriors have faced some similar defensive teams in recent games (Cavs, Celtics, Bulls and Suns) and failed to top 120 points in any of those games. Golden State has scored more than 124 points against the Grizzlies just 1 time in their last 10 meetings. Our math model is projecting 114.6-total points for the Warriors.
ASA Player Prop OVER 25.5 POINTS+REBOUNS – Jusuf Nurkic – Portland Trailblazers
Nurkic is inline for a big game tonight against a Jazz team that allows the 5th most points to centers and the 3rd most rebounds. In two meetings this season versus the Jazz he has totaled 25 and 29 points+rebounds respectively. In his last ten games he is averaging 25Pts+Rebs and is coming off a 36 total night against the Spurs.
ASA NBA Player Prop OVER 26.5 POINTS+ASSISTS – Fred VanVleet – Toronto Raptors
VanVleet is averaging 19.1PPG on the season but in his last ten games that number has jumped up to 21.3PPG. The same can be said about is Assists statistics. For the year he is averaging 6.3APG but in his last ten games that average is 6.9APG. The Kings allow the 6th most points (24.6PPG) in the NBA to PG’s and 7.9-assists per game. There is a good chance VanVleet scores enough to get Over this number, the assists will just make it that much easier.
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