Tag: NBA predictions

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Philadelphia 76ers vs Milwaukee Bucks prediction – Oct 26th

NBA free bet on: Philadelphia 76ers +6 at Milwaukee Bucks, 7:30PM ET

ASA’s 76ers vs. Bucks prediction. Clearly this is a big marquee match up of two of the favorites to come out of the Eastern Conference this season and both have made big news in the offseason. The Bucks made a blockbuster trade and brought in Damian Lillard, the 76ers were dealing with distractions in James Harden. A great side story to this game is the new head coaches for both teams. The 76ers brought in former Raptors coach Nick Nurse (I desperately wanted the Bucks to hire him) while the Bucks hired first time head coach Adrian Griffin. Griffin was an assistant under Nurse in Toronto and won a ring in 2019. In regard to tonight’s game. The Bucks may have an adjustment period with Dame in the lineup with Giannis as you have two Alpha males that averaged over 31PPG a season ago. The 76ers though played without Harden enough though so they really won’t have a tough time adjusting in this opener. The Bucks were 33-11 SU at home a season ago with an average +/- of +5.9PPG. Philadelphia had the second-best road record a year ago at 29-18 SU with a plus/minus of +2.9PPG. The Underdog covered 3 of four last year in this series as every game but one was close. In fact, the dog won 3 of the four outright. This Sixers roster is still very good with a budding star in Maxey, an MVP candidate in Embiid and solid vets as a supporting cast in Beverley, Harris and Tucker. A sneaky good addition to the roster is Kelly Oubre Jr who can be a game changer when motivated. We like the veteran coach to have the upper hand tonight in what should be a close game throughout. Grab the points.

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NBA Player Prop – Dennis Schroder – Toronto Raptors

ASA NBA PLAYER PROP – OVER 16.5 POINTS+ASSIST – Dennis Schroder – Toronto Raptors

The Raptors host the Minnesota Timberwolves tonight and we expect a big game from the Raptors’ new starting PG Dennis Schroder. Toronto brought in the veteran Schroder to shore up their backcourt after losing Fred VanVleet in the offseason. He is inline for a big game tonight at home against a porous T-Wolves defense that was 20th overall in defensive efficiency ratings. Defending point guards was especially problematic for the Wolves as they were 3rd worst in the league a year ago in that department. Last year as a Lakers, Schroder totaled 18 and 17 points+assists in two games against the T-Wolves and one of those games was as a reserve in just 22 minutes of play. Last season Schroder averaged 17.1 points+assists per game, and as we mentioned those numbers come with him not being a full-time starter. In the Raptors last two preseason games he had 19 and 19 Pts+Ass in 23 and 28 minutes. In this home opener we expect Schroder to really focus on getting all of his teammates involved which will lead to a big assists number and the points are an added bonus. NBA player prop Over Points + Assists Dennis Schroder.

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NBA Player Prop bet Oct 24th | LeBron James

NBA PLAYER PROP – OVER 38.5.5 POINTS+REBOUNDS+ASSISTS – LEBRON JAMES – LAKERS

Tonight we tip off the season with a NBA Player Prop bet on LeBron James. With this being the first game of the season, we know LBJ will dress and play tonight, which may not be the case in any random regular season game. This game has added motivation for LeBron and the Lakers as they were swept by the Nuggets last season in the postseason. As we know, being motivated is not always LeBron’s strength but we are betting on it tonight. James averaged 28.9PPG, 8.3RPG and 6.8APG last season, which means he needs just an ‘average’ game tonight. His career numbers are 27.2PPG, 7.5RPG and 7.3APG which are also enough to grab the cash on this Over wager. Last year in the playoffs LeBron had total points+rebounds+assists of 59, 42, 41 and 47 in the series against Denver. The Nuggets weren’t a great defensive team a year ago and they lost 2 key defenders in Brown and Green so expect a regression on that end of the court, especially early on. Denver was also one of the worst teams in the league a season ago in defending small forwards. LeBron won’t be on a minute’s restriction tonight and should put up big numbers in this season opener. NBA Player prop bet OVER Point+Rebounds+Assists for LeBron James.

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NBA Future Bets – 2023-24 – By ASA

NBA Future Bets – Oct 23rd

If you’re looking for a few NBA Over-Under wagers or Future bets for the upcoming season, you’ve come to the right place.

ASA is coming off a banner season in the NBA, one of their best in 30+ years and have already been hard at work assessing all of the NBA’s rosters/teams in anticipation of the season.

Here are the bets we’ve already made and the best options for your future options.

L.A. CLIPPERS OVER 46.5 WINS

This roster is largely intact from a year ago and will hopefully benefit from having Kawhi Leonard for more than the 52 games he played a year ago. Of course, that’s also a risk as Leonard has been injury prone, but when he’s healthy he is still one of the 10 best players in the league. The Clippers defensive efficiency numbers slipped last season but expect them to get back to their numbers of previous season when they lived in the top 10 in that category. In fact, the Clippers ranked top 10 in DEFF in 2020, 21 and 2022. Last year the Clippers finished 12th in offensive efficiency after finishing in the top 5 in two of the three previous seasons. Los Angeles won 44 games a year ago and had a positive +/- of +0.1PPG. The value in the number is our driving factor in this wager as the Oddmakers posted a total win number of 52.5 last season on this same roster. The Clippers had one of the worst records in the NBA in games decided by 5-points or less at 8-38 so expect a few more wins in close games and an easy Over ticket winner.

DENVER NUGGETS UNDER 52.5 WINS

The World Champs should see a regression in their win total for several factors including the fact they will have a target on their backs every night out. Secondly, the Nuggets suffered a few key losses in Bruce Brown and Jeff Green who were instrumental in their Championship run. Last season the Nuggets won 53 games in the regular season and had an average Margin of Victory of +3.2PPG which was 6th best in the league. Denver owned the 3rd best offensive efficiency rating during the regular season and were below average in defensive efficiency allowing 1.110-points per possession ranking 17th. We expect the rest of the Northwest Division to be improved over last season which will make getting to 53 wins more difficult. Overall, the entire Western Conference is loaded from top to bottom with up to seven teams being legitimate contenders to win the Conference. We are betting on a slight regression for the Nuggets and their regular season win total.

BOSTON CELTICS OVER 54.5 WINS

This Celtics roster is better than last year’s that won 57-games with the additions of Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis. The Celtics now feature a core group of Super Stars that can sustain winning results through multiple injuries if they occur during the regular season. They also have depth with the likes of Sam Hauser, Derrick White, Al Horford and Payton Prichard. Gone from the Celtics roster are Grant Williams, Robert Williams and Marcus Smart, but the additions far outweigh the subtractions. Boston was 1st in Efficiency differential last season at +6.6, they were 2nd in offensive efficiency averaging 1.181-points per possession and 3rd defensively allowing 1.115PPP. The Celtics had the best overall Average Margin of Victory at +5.9PPG and were one of only six teams to have a positive road differential at +2.9PPG. The Eastern Conference isn’t nearly as good as the West which will make winning 55+ games a very realistic opportunity for the C’s.

GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS UNDER 48.5 WINS

The Warriors have an aging roster, and the saying Father time waits for no man applies to this team more than anyone. Golden State didn’t get any younger this season when they traded for Chris Paul and we don’t see him being a great fit in the Warriors fast paced offense. When the Warriors were winning Championships, they had one of the best defenses in the NBA. In three of the four seasons the Warriors won it all they ranked top 10 in defensive efficiency three times. Last season this group slipped to 15th in the NBA in DEFF. In our rankings, we have the Pacific Division as the best in basketball with the Suns, Clippers, Lakers, Kings and Warriors. Golden State was 13-16 SU against the Pacific last season and collectively those teams are all better this season. The Warriors really struggled on the road last regular season with an 11-30 SU away record and an average Margin of Victory of minus -5.9PPG which ranked bottom five in the league. To be a great team in the NBA you have to win on the road and the Warriors just don’t qualify as a great team anymore. Golden State won 44 games a season ago and we’ll project a .500 season at 41-41.

Good luck – ASA

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NBA Free Bet – Suns vs Nuggets free pick – May 9th 2023

ASA play on OVER 228 Phoenix Suns @ Denver Nuggets 10PM ET

We expect another higher scoring game tonight between the Suns and Nuggets. In Game 3 these two teams combined for 235 total points. A big reason was the pace of play. The Suns played much faster with Chris Paul on the bench and Cameron Payne pushing the pace. These two teams combined for 192 field goal attempts which is significantly higher than the league average of 176. Then in Game 4 these two teams produced 253 total points with incredible shooting as both teams hit over 56% from the field. The Nuggets were 5th in offensive efficiency on the season, the Suns were 14th in OEFF. Both teams have averaged nearly 1.180-points per possession in the Playoffs which is 2nd and 3rd in offensive efficiency. Four of the last five meetings between these two teams has resulted in more points than today’s number and we are betting that trend continues.