Tag: NBA predictions

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Nuggets vs Clippers Prediction | Dec 1 2024 | NBA Free Bet

ASA play on UNDER 223 Denver Nuggets at LA Clippers, 10PM ET

The Clippers have become one of the best defensive teams in the NBA this season (hired Jeff Van Gundy as an assistant coach) as they allow the 4th fewest points per possession in the league. L.A. has held 6 of their last seven opponents to less than 100 points, which is unheard of in today’s NBA.

Denver’s defense hasn’t been as good this season and recently gave up 145 to the Knicks which caused a meltdown with head coach Malone who publicly criticized his team’s effort. The Nuggets responded in their next game by holding the Jazz to 103 points.

These two teams met earlier this season and produced 213 total points. They have not scored more than this O/U number in 5 straight meetings and 8 of their last nine.

Denver hasn’t played since Wednesday and with 2-4 days rest dating back to last season they are 19-7 Under with those games staying below the number by an average of 8ppg.

When these two teams play a conference opponent the Under is 102-57-2 since the start of last season. Bet Under!

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ASA NBA free bet | Orlando Magic -5 at Charlotte Hornets | Nov 25

NBA FREE BET TODAY – MAGIC vs HORNETS Prediction – November 25th 2024

We have learned our lesson of fading the Magic and will back them here against the Hornets as a road favorite. Looking at the Hornets recent schedule we see they were +2-point home dog to the Piston and +4 at home against the Bucks.

Neither the Pistons or Bucks rank as high as the Magic in our power rankings. Orlando has the 3rd best Efficiency Differential in the NBA at +4.1.

The biggest difference between these two teams is defensively as the Magic allow just 1.061-points per possession (3rd) compared to the Hornets who allow 1.160PPP (19th). Charlotte is a few spots ahead of the Magic in terms of OEFF but it’s marginal.

Orlando has won 8 of their last nine games overall with 6 of those wins coming by double digits.

Charlotte will be without starting PF Grant Williams tonight, which is significant considering the multiple injuries they already have.

These two teams met earlier in November and the Magic won, going away 114-89. We like the Magic by 10+ tonight.

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NBA Rockets vs Mavericks Prediction | 10-31-24

ASA NBA free bet on UNDER 226 Houston Rockets at Dallas Mavericks, 8:40PM ET

We like a low scoring game between these two Texas teams with a projected final of 215 total points being scored.

Houston has made a commitment to the defensive end of the court under coach Udoka, currently ranking 8th in defensive efficiency allowing just 1.086-points per possession. Last season the Rockets finished the entire season ranked 10th in DEFF so it’s clearly not just a one year thing. When you look at full season stats the Mavs were not good defensively allowing 1.149-points per possession which ranked 18th in the NBA. In their last 23 games of the season though they allowed 1.104PPP, 9th best in the league.

This season in four games the Mavericks are allowing 1.098PPG which is 10th best in the league. Contrary to what you might think, the Mavs play at a slower tempo averaging 100 possessions per game which ranks 17th. The Rockets are slower yet in pace of play at 98.25, 25th slowest in the NBA.

Thus far into the season these two teams have not shot it well either with the Mavericks ranking 22nd in EFG% shooting, the Rockets are 28th. The average total points scored in a NBA game this season is slightly higher than this, but we don’t see this being average with a slow tempo, great defense and below average shooting. This NBA Rockets vs Mavericks prediction is UNDER the Total.

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NBA Predictions Future Bets | Western Conference | 2025

WesternConfArticle

NBA Predictions – WESTERN CONFERENCE OVER/UNDER WIN TOTALS

OVER 49.5 DALLAS MAVERICKS – Dallas won 50 games a year ago and finished the season 10th in Offensive Efficiency, 13th in DEFF. The Mavs should be better this season with a full season of PJ Washington on the roster after coming over from Charlotte at the trade deadline. With Washington in the lineup the Mavs finished the regular season on a 20-9 run.

Dallas also got great play from Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively at the Center position who combined for an average of 10PPG and 6.9 RPG.

They added depth with Spencer Dinwiddie and Klay Thompson. Both of those players are more than capable of putting up big offensive numbers, especially Klay who has a career average of 19.6PPG and he made 3.5 3-pointers last season, 5th in the NBA.

Let’s not forget, the Mavs have one of the most dynamic backcourts with Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving. Doncic led the league in scoring last season at 33.9PPG and was 2nd in assists at 9.8 per game. Kyrie made 3.0 3-pointers per game last season and hit over 41% from Deep. This is a deep roster and very capable of winning 50+ even if they sustain an injury or two.

UNDER 47.5 MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES – The Grizzlies won just 27-games a year ago but played 73-games without Ja Morant. Morant is back this season but this roster is not good enough to get to 48-wins.

Memphis was 30th in Offensive Efficiency rating, 12th Defensively. The starting lineup looks like Morant, Marcus Smart, Desmond Bane, Jaren Jackson Jr and rookie Zach Edey.

Smart played in just 20-games last season and is clearly not the player he once was after 10 seasons in the league. Desmond Bane is a solid #2 but should see a decline in his usage with Morant back in the lineup. Jaren Jackson Jr has been limited to 63 and 66 games the past two season and clearly has injury concerns.

One big concern for Memphis is their rebounding as they ranked 25th in Rebound Rate a year ago. Will rookie Zach Edey help in that category? Two years ago this team had a much better roster and they won 51-games to finish second in the West, this roster isn’t going to get to 48.

OVER 47.5 PHOENIX SUNS – The Suns have the luxury of having three guys on their roster that can literally go for 40-points on any given night.

Kevin Durant is still a premier scorer in this league and is coming off a 27.1ppg season. Durant remained healthy for most of the season, playing in 75-games. The second option, or first for that matter is Devin Booker who also scored 27.1ppg last year and averaged a career high in assists at 6.9 per game. Bradley Beal played in 53 games last season, shot 43% from beyond the arc and scored 18.2ppg.

If we look at Efficiency ratings this team was 9th in OEFF, 14th in DEFF with the 11th best Efficiency Differential.

The Suns got better in the offseason with the addition of Tyus Jones and they still have depth with Grayson Allen, and Royce O’Neal off the bench.

The Suns were a top 10 team in Rebound Rate and Effective Field goal percentage.  Phoenix won 49 games a year ago and should get to that number again in 2025.

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NBA Free Bet Today | Knicks vs Celtics Prediction | Oct 22 2024

ASA NBA Free Bet on UNDER 222.5 NY Knicks at Boston Celtics, 7:30PM ET

Last year these two teams opened the season off with an Under and 212 total points on opening night. That really doesn’t have anything to do with tonight’s wager, but here’s what does.

These two teams were both top 11 in defensive efficiency with the Celtics 3rd, allowing 1.078-points per possession, the Knicks ranked 11th at 1.104PP allowed. The other key factor here is pace of play. The Knicks were the slowest paced team in the league last season at 95.2 possessions per game. Contrary to what you might think, the Celtics were also slower paced at 97.1 possessions per game which ranked 7th slowest.

If the preseason is any indication of what New York plans to do this season we can expect great defense tonight. The Knicks held 4 of five opponents to 110 or less points in the preseason. The Celtics also showed their defensive prowess in the exhibition season allowing 111 or less in 4 of five games.

With the Celtics coming off a Championship they may be slow to start tonight. The Knicks have several new pieces and it could take time for the starters to jell. In this opening night game we like UNDER the total.

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