Tag: NBA predictions

Posted on by

NBA free wager – Suns vs. Wolves, Nov 9th

NBA free wager by ASA – UNDER 223 Phoenix Suns at Minnesota Timberwolves

ASA play on: #547/548 UNDER 223 Phoenix Suns at Minnesota Timberwolves, 8:10PM ET

ASA NBA pick. In the first week of the NBA season, scoring was up with games averaging 228 total points per game. That has trended back to the norm with games averaging 224.8-total points per game currently. In other words, this game has to be slightly lower scoring than an average game, which is what our model is predicting. Let’s start with the fact these two teams are a combined 6-15 to the Under this season. The addition of Rudy Gobert to the Wolves lineup is taking time for the team to adjust to. Last year the Wolves were the highest scoring team in the league at 115.4PPG but this year they are down to 113.7PPG which ranks 12th. Those numbers should be considerably higher given the fact that the Wolves have played the Spurs three times who are last in the league in points allowed per game at 120.6. They’ve also faced the Rockets and Knicks who are bottom 10 in PPG given up. Now they face a Suns team that is 2nd in points allowed per game at 103.5PPG, and rank 3rd in defensive efficiency. Another key factor is pace. Minnesota has faced several fast tempo teams this season, but the Suns are the 3rd slowest in pace of play at 95.7 possessions per game. The presence of Gobert (multiple defensive player of the year awards) has made the T-Wolves better defensively. Minnesota is 9th in defensive efficiency ratings at 1.105-points per possession allowed. Phoenix was 5th overall in scoring a year ago at 113.8PPG but are currently 15th at 112.4PPG. This game is shaping up to be very similar to the Bucks/Wolves game the other night which finished with 217 total points. Bet UNDER for this NBA pick!

ASA player prop OVER 24.5 Pts+Rebs – Jusuf Nurkic, Portland Trailblazers

The Hornets are one of the worst defensive rebounding teams in the NBA so Nurkic should get plenty of opportunities for offensive rebounds and putbacks. Charlotte also ranks 23rd in the league in points in the paint allowed at 52. Nurkic is averaging 13PPG and 11.2RPG but we expect him to exceed those expectations given the opponent they Blazers are facing tonight. On average, Charlotte allows 42.91 Pts+Rebs per game which is the second highest total in the NBA. To similar centers to Nurkic (Valancunius, Capela, Sabonis, Vucevic, Adams and Porzingis) the Hornets have allowed an average of 30.33 Pts+Rebs. Nurkic has had two straight lower output games but they came against the Suns and Heat who are better than the Hornets defensively when it comes to centers. Easy Over call here.

Other recent free bets

Posted on by

NBA free bet – Friday, Nov 4th

ASA Player Prop OVER 22.5 POINTS+REBOUNDS – Evan Mobley – Cleveland Cavaliers

As of this posting ASA is on an INCREDIBLE 15-3 START TO THE NBA SEASON ON PLAYER PROPS! YOU GET GET THEM DAILY FOR LESS THAN 10-BUCKS HERE!

This is a bargain and one of the strongest Player Props we’ve seen this season thus far. The Pistons are the worst team in the league when it comes to points+rebounds allowed to power forwards this season. On average, PF’ have totaled 38.53 Pts+Rebs per game against Detroit. Mobley is in line for a big game against Detroit tonight as the Cavs may be without either PG Darius Garland and or Donovan Mitchell which means more offensive opportunities. Mobley is averaging 21.86 Pts+Rebs this season and 23.3 in his last ten games. He has had 22 or more in four straight. Detroit is one of the worst rebounding teams in the league, so this sets up favorably for Mobley to get to double-digits in both scoring and rebounding.

RECENT FREE PICKS

Posted on by

NBA free bet | Nov 3rd

ASA play on: Oklahoma City Thunder +6.5 vs. Denver Nuggets, 8:10PM ET

The value in the number has us on OKC tonight. These two teams met on Oct 22nd in Denver and the Nuggets were favored by 9-points and won by 5. That means they should be a 1-2-point favorite on the road in this matchup. On the season the Thunder have a net differential of +2PPG, while the Nuggets are negative at -2.9PPG. Denver is 1-3 SU on the road this season with the 3rd worst average MOV of -13PPG. The Nuggets have the worst defensive efficiency rating when away this season. OKC is 3-1 SU at home on the season with an average MOV of +5PPG. The Thunder have won four straight games with a pair of solid wins over the Clippers and big road win in Dallas. In the first meeting this season the Nuggets shot 53% from Deep which is well above their season of 39.4%. We don’t expect a repeat performance for them on the road, plus the Thunder rank 5th in 3-point percentage defense. The Thunder have a budding Star in Shai Gilgeous Alexander who is putting up insane numbers to start the season. Grab the home dog in this one.

OTHER FREE PICKS

Posted on by

NBA Prop bets Oct 29th

ASA NBA Player Prop OVER 26.5 POINTS – Stephen Curry – Golden State Warriors

ASA has gotten off to a 9-4 YTD start on NBA Player Props. Be sure to check out our site daily for free picks.

This seems like an easy one as long as Curry gets enough minutes in this game, and he should as he is back in his Davidson college State of North Carolina. Curry is averaging 30.8PPG on 48.6% shooting overall and 45.8% from beyond the arc. The Hornets are one of the worst teams in the NBA when it comes to defending Point Guards allowing 28.64PPG to that position. Charlotte has given up those lofty numbers yet have faced just one elite Point Guard this season in Trae Young who scored 28-points. Curry has scored 33+ points in every game but one and that was against a Suns team that has the 4th best defensive efficiency rating in the league. Charlotte is 16th in DEFF.

Recent Articles

Posted on by

NBA Player Prop Bets for Friday, Oct 28th

ASA is 8-3 this season with NBA Player Props – today’s winners below

ASA NBA Player Prop OVER 17.5 POINTS+REBOUNDS – Miles Turner – Indiana Pacers

Let’s start with the Wizards defensive deficiencies when it comes to Centers around the league. Washington has one of the worst rebound rates against Centers and allows the 9th most points to “Bigs”. Turner is coming off an ankle injury prior to the season but saw 24 minutes of action against the Bulls on Wednesday night. He was just 1 of 7 from the field but expect a much better shooting night here in his second game back. Turner is a career 48.8% shooter, including 34.8% from Deep. He did grab 6 rebounds in that game against the Bulls and averages 6.7 lifetime in the NBA.

ASA NBA Player Prop OVER 17.5 POINTS – Nikola Vucevic – Chicago Bulls

We feel this is the best bargain on the board in terms of PP’s and expect a big night from Vucevic against the Spurs. First off, the Spurs are one of the fastest paced teams in the NBA which means plenty of possessions and scoring opportunities for the Bulls. Secondly, as a team the Spurs are one of the worst defensive clubs in the NBA allowing 1.149-points per possession. The Spurs are 3rd worst in the league defending Centers at 26.73PPG allowed. Vucevic is averaging 17.4PPG this season and scored 24-points against a Washington team that is similar to the Spurs in defending centers. Last year in the two meetings against the Spurs, Vucevic scored 15 and 18 points respectively which gets us the money here. 

Recent Free Picks