Tag: NBA predictions

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NBA Player Prop Nov 17th

ASA Player Prop OVER 21.5 POINTS – Keldon Johnson, San Antonio Spurs

The Over/Under on this game itself is 236 which tells us it’s going to be a high scoring game. These are two of the fastest paced teams in the NBA, and two of the worst when it comes to defensive efficiency. The Spurs are 29th in the league allowing 1.169-points per possession, the Kings rank 27th giving up 1.147PPP. Johnson is averaging 22.71PPG on the season and has a pair of big game recently against a comparative team to the Spurs in the Denver Nuggets. Sacramento allows the 6th most points to shooting forwards, Denver is 8th in that defensive category. Our models are projecting 25.25 points tonight for Johnson.

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NBA free bet Nov 16th

NBA Free Bet – Houston Rockets vs. Dallas Mavericks prediction

ASA play on: Houston Rockets +6.5 at Dallas Mavericks, 8:40PM ET

*No Luka Doncic for Dallas tonight hence the big line move.* After winning with our play on the Clippers last night against the Mavs we will come right back with a NBA free bet against Dallas tonight. The Mavs are 6-7-1 AST their last 14 when playing without rest and their +/- in those games is just +1.6PPG which clearly isn’t enough for a cover tonight. Dallas is off to a 8-5 SU start to the season with a 7-1 record at home. The Mavs +7.1PPG average margin of victory at home though is very misleading as they have a 41-point win over the Grizzlies. If we remove that one blowout their average +/- at home is just 2.1PPG. In their last five home games they have won by a combined 13-points. The Rockets have the 4th worst road differential in the NBA at minus -9.4PPG but they’ve also faced a brutal road schedule, with 8 of ten opponents having an above .500 record. Houston has covered 7 of the last ten meetings in Dallas and get another ATS ‘W’ here. Good luck with this NBA wager Wednesday night.

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NBA Prop Bet – Monday, Nov 14th

ASA PLAY ON: OVER 11.5 POINTS Al Horford, Boston Celtics

ASA’s best Prop Bet tonight. Horford has been somewhat limited this season as they manage his load/minutes early on. He did not play in the Celtics most recent game which was the second night of a back-to-back but in the previous game he scored a season-high 21-points. He has scored in double-digits in 5 straight games in which he’s played in and 6 of the last seven. Now he faces the 5th worst team in the NBA when it comes to points allowed per game to Centers in the OKC Thunder. Consider this. In the 10 games he’s played in he has faced a defense that is in the top half of the league in the least number of points allowed to Centers in every game but one. Tonight, it’s going to be a big game for the Celtics center.

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NBA free bet + NBA prop bet – Friday, Nov 11th

ASA play on: OVER 229 Sacramento Kings at LA Lakers, 10:40PM ET

No LeBron tonight, no problem concerning this Over-Under. Let’s face it, LeBron tends to slow the offense at times as he’s very deliberate when he has the ball in his hands on the offensive end of the court. With him out of the lineup that means more time for Westbrook who pushes the tempo every chance he gets. The Lakers are currently the 3rd fastest paced team in the league at 102.3 possessions per game. Sacramento is 13th in pace at 100.3 possessions per game. The Kings have solid offensive numbers as they rank 10th in offensive efficiency, 9th in scoring at 115.9PPG and are the 7th best shooting team in the NBA. They should improve on their scoring numbers against a Lakers defense that is not good this season ranking 19th in defensive efficiency and 24th in PPG given up at 116.1. Granted, the Lakers offense has not been good either this season, but they have a great opportunity to ‘get right’ tonight against a Kings D that is 25th in PPG allowed (117.1), 29th in both overall FG% and 3PT% defense and 25th in DEFF. In the two most recent meetings between these two teams they produced 241 and 236 total points. Bet OVER!

ASA play on OVER 19.5 POINTS Devin Vassell, San Antonio Spurs (As of this posting 20-5 on NBA Player Props)

The Bucks are without their two best defenders tonight as Giannis and Holiday are both out. Holiday is key to this wager as he would more than likely defend Vassell. The Bucks are the 3rd worst team in the NBA in points allowed per game to shooting guards at 25.26. Vassell has scored 20 or more points in 6 of his last seven games and is averaging 20.88PPG on the season. This is an easy OVER call on Vassell and his points scored.

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NBA free wager – Suns vs. Wolves, Nov 9th

NBA free wager by ASA – UNDER 223 Phoenix Suns at Minnesota Timberwolves

ASA play on: #547/548 UNDER 223 Phoenix Suns at Minnesota Timberwolves, 8:10PM ET

ASA NBA pick. In the first week of the NBA season, scoring was up with games averaging 228 total points per game. That has trended back to the norm with games averaging 224.8-total points per game currently. In other words, this game has to be slightly lower scoring than an average game, which is what our model is predicting. Let’s start with the fact these two teams are a combined 6-15 to the Under this season. The addition of Rudy Gobert to the Wolves lineup is taking time for the team to adjust to. Last year the Wolves were the highest scoring team in the league at 115.4PPG but this year they are down to 113.7PPG which ranks 12th. Those numbers should be considerably higher given the fact that the Wolves have played the Spurs three times who are last in the league in points allowed per game at 120.6. They’ve also faced the Rockets and Knicks who are bottom 10 in PPG given up. Now they face a Suns team that is 2nd in points allowed per game at 103.5PPG, and rank 3rd in defensive efficiency. Another key factor is pace. Minnesota has faced several fast tempo teams this season, but the Suns are the 3rd slowest in pace of play at 95.7 possessions per game. The presence of Gobert (multiple defensive player of the year awards) has made the T-Wolves better defensively. Minnesota is 9th in defensive efficiency ratings at 1.105-points per possession allowed. Phoenix was 5th overall in scoring a year ago at 113.8PPG but are currently 15th at 112.4PPG. This game is shaping up to be very similar to the Bucks/Wolves game the other night which finished with 217 total points. Bet UNDER for this NBA pick!

ASA player prop OVER 24.5 Pts+Rebs – Jusuf Nurkic, Portland Trailblazers

The Hornets are one of the worst defensive rebounding teams in the NBA so Nurkic should get plenty of opportunities for offensive rebounds and putbacks. Charlotte also ranks 23rd in the league in points in the paint allowed at 52. Nurkic is averaging 13PPG and 11.2RPG but we expect him to exceed those expectations given the opponent they Blazers are facing tonight. On average, Charlotte allows 42.91 Pts+Rebs per game which is the second highest total in the NBA. To similar centers to Nurkic (Valancunius, Capela, Sabonis, Vucevic, Adams and Porzingis) the Hornets have allowed an average of 30.33 Pts+Rebs. Nurkic has had two straight lower output games but they came against the Suns and Heat who are better than the Hornets defensively when it comes to centers. Easy Over call here.

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