Tag: NBA predictions

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NBA Future Bets – 2023-24 – By ASA

NBA Future Bets – Oct 23rd

If you’re looking for a few NBA Over-Under wagers or Future bets for the upcoming season, you’ve come to the right place.

ASA is coming off a banner season in the NBA, one of their best in 30+ years and have already been hard at work assessing all of the NBA’s rosters/teams in anticipation of the season.

Here are the bets we’ve already made and the best options for your future options.

L.A. CLIPPERS OVER 46.5 WINS

This roster is largely intact from a year ago and will hopefully benefit from having Kawhi Leonard for more than the 52 games he played a year ago. Of course, that’s also a risk as Leonard has been injury prone, but when he’s healthy he is still one of the 10 best players in the league. The Clippers defensive efficiency numbers slipped last season but expect them to get back to their numbers of previous season when they lived in the top 10 in that category. In fact, the Clippers ranked top 10 in DEFF in 2020, 21 and 2022. Last year the Clippers finished 12th in offensive efficiency after finishing in the top 5 in two of the three previous seasons. Los Angeles won 44 games a year ago and had a positive +/- of +0.1PPG. The value in the number is our driving factor in this wager as the Oddmakers posted a total win number of 52.5 last season on this same roster. The Clippers had one of the worst records in the NBA in games decided by 5-points or less at 8-38 so expect a few more wins in close games and an easy Over ticket winner.

DENVER NUGGETS UNDER 52.5 WINS

The World Champs should see a regression in their win total for several factors including the fact they will have a target on their backs every night out. Secondly, the Nuggets suffered a few key losses in Bruce Brown and Jeff Green who were instrumental in their Championship run. Last season the Nuggets won 53 games in the regular season and had an average Margin of Victory of +3.2PPG which was 6th best in the league. Denver owned the 3rd best offensive efficiency rating during the regular season and were below average in defensive efficiency allowing 1.110-points per possession ranking 17th. We expect the rest of the Northwest Division to be improved over last season which will make getting to 53 wins more difficult. Overall, the entire Western Conference is loaded from top to bottom with up to seven teams being legitimate contenders to win the Conference. We are betting on a slight regression for the Nuggets and their regular season win total.

BOSTON CELTICS OVER 54.5 WINS

This Celtics roster is better than last year’s that won 57-games with the additions of Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis. The Celtics now feature a core group of Super Stars that can sustain winning results through multiple injuries if they occur during the regular season. They also have depth with the likes of Sam Hauser, Derrick White, Al Horford and Payton Prichard. Gone from the Celtics roster are Grant Williams, Robert Williams and Marcus Smart, but the additions far outweigh the subtractions. Boston was 1st in Efficiency differential last season at +6.6, they were 2nd in offensive efficiency averaging 1.181-points per possession and 3rd defensively allowing 1.115PPP. The Celtics had the best overall Average Margin of Victory at +5.9PPG and were one of only six teams to have a positive road differential at +2.9PPG. The Eastern Conference isn’t nearly as good as the West which will make winning 55+ games a very realistic opportunity for the C’s.

GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS UNDER 48.5 WINS

The Warriors have an aging roster, and the saying Father time waits for no man applies to this team more than anyone. Golden State didn’t get any younger this season when they traded for Chris Paul and we don’t see him being a great fit in the Warriors fast paced offense. When the Warriors were winning Championships, they had one of the best defenses in the NBA. In three of the four seasons the Warriors won it all they ranked top 10 in defensive efficiency three times. Last season this group slipped to 15th in the NBA in DEFF. In our rankings, we have the Pacific Division as the best in basketball with the Suns, Clippers, Lakers, Kings and Warriors. Golden State was 13-16 SU against the Pacific last season and collectively those teams are all better this season. The Warriors really struggled on the road last regular season with an 11-30 SU away record and an average Margin of Victory of minus -5.9PPG which ranked bottom five in the league. To be a great team in the NBA you have to win on the road and the Warriors just don’t qualify as a great team anymore. Golden State won 44 games a season ago and we’ll project a .500 season at 41-41.

Good luck – ASA

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NBA Free Bet – Suns vs Nuggets free pick – May 9th 2023

ASA play on OVER 228 Phoenix Suns @ Denver Nuggets 10PM ET

We expect another higher scoring game tonight between the Suns and Nuggets. In Game 3 these two teams combined for 235 total points. A big reason was the pace of play. The Suns played much faster with Chris Paul on the bench and Cameron Payne pushing the pace. These two teams combined for 192 field goal attempts which is significantly higher than the league average of 176. Then in Game 4 these two teams produced 253 total points with incredible shooting as both teams hit over 56% from the field. The Nuggets were 5th in offensive efficiency on the season, the Suns were 14th in OEFF. Both teams have averaged nearly 1.180-points per possession in the Playoffs which is 2nd and 3rd in offensive efficiency. Four of the last five meetings between these two teams has resulted in more points than today’s number and we are betting that trend continues.

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NBA free bet – Saturday, April 22nd

ASA’s NBA free bet on Milwaukee Bucks Team Total OVER 112.5pts vs. Miami Heat, 7:30PM ET

Milwaukee essentially played without Giannis in Game 1 as he left the game with a back injury just 10-minutes in. The Bucks still managed 117 total points without him. Then in Game 2 the Bucks shot lights-out and put up 138. Milwaukee shot 54% overall and made 25 of 49 3-pointers or 51%. We don’t expect the Bucks to shoot that well again in Game 3 but they won’t have too for them to get to 113.  This team was the 8th highest scoring team in the league this season at 116.9PPG and ranked 10th in offensive efficiency at 1.120PPP. Milwaukee has the 10th best EFG% average in the NBA at 55.5%. This team was built with shooters and is reliant on 3-point shooting. Milwaukee attempts the 4th most 3’s per game in the league, and on average make 36.6% of their attempts. In Game 1 though the Bucks connected on just 11 of 45 3-pointers or 24%. That number is clearly an anomaly as the Bucks typically shoot much better than that AND the Heat don’t defend the Arc well, ranking 19th in the NBA allowing 36.3%. This Milwaukee team is deep and has capable scorers that can put up more than 113 with or without Giannis. Milwaukee has scored more than 113 in four straight games against the Heat and we like them to get there today as our NBA free bet.

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NBA Player Prop Bets – Friday, April 7th

ASA NBA Player Prop OVER 27.5 POINTS+REBOUNDS Alperen Sengun – Houston Rockets

The Hornets are sitting a host of starters in this one so expect the Rockets starters to feast on weaker competition. Sengun is on tap for a big stat night against a Hornets team that allows the 3rd most points to Centers on average at 25.1PPG and also give up the 3rd most rebounds per game at 16.6. Sengun has totaled 28+ Pts+Rebs in 4 straight games. Easy OVER call here.

ASA NBA Player Prop OVER 14.5 POINTS – James Wiseman – Detroit Pistons

The Pistons are using these late season games to evaluate Wiseman and how he fits this roster moving forward. It has led to improved production and additional minutes in recent weeks. Wiseman has scored 14 or more points in 8 of his last ten games and gets a favorable matchup with the Pacers tonight. Indiana allows the 5th most average points to Centers at 24.6PPG. The Pacers allow 53.3PPG in the paint on the season which is the 26th highest number in the league. Bet OVER here.

ASA NBA Player Prop OVER 14.5 POINTS Jabari Smith Jr. – Houston Rockets

Smith Jr. has is averaging 14.2PPG over his last ten games and has scored 14 or more points in 6 of his last nine games. His usage and minutes have remained constant even with the Rockets season a shambles. In fact, his field goat attempts have gone up so we can bank on him getting enough looks in this game to go over his scoring total. The Hornets allow on average 24.3PPG to Power Forwards on the season which is the 2nd highest average allowed in the league.

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NBA Players Prop Bets – April 5th

ASA player prop OVER 25.5 POINTS+ASSISTS – Russell Westbrook – LA Clippers

Russ gets to face his former team tonight and we expect a big night in terms of scoring and assists. To begin with the Lakers give up the 2nd most points to PG’s on the season at 26.4PPG and rank 17th in Assists allowed per game at 8.1. Westbrook is averaging 24.8 Pts+Ass in his last ten games and is coming off a 34Pts+Ass game versus the Pelicans on Saturday. With extra rest and motivation we like a big game from Russell tonight.

ASA player prop UNDER 6.5 REBOUNDS – Brook Lopez – Milwaukee Bucks

The Bulls are the #1 team in the NBA when it comes to rebounds allowed to Centers at 13.3 per game. Lopez averages 6.66 per game on the season but has been held to 6 of less in 3 straight games and 5 of his last nine. There is a good chance the Bucks rest starters which would also limit his production tonight.

ASA player prop OVER 17.5 POINTS – Trey Murphy – New Orleans Pelicans

The Pelicans are in a must win mindset and are coming off a back loss last night to the Kings. In this setting we expect Murphy to have a big game against the Grizzlies. On the season the Grizzlies do a solid job of defending shooting guards as they allow 23.4PPG. In the last two weeks though they are giving up an average of 27.9PPG and they haven’t faced many great SG’s in that time frame. Murphy is averaging 18.3PPG in his last ten games and has scored 17 or more points in 6 of his last 8 games.

ASA NBA Player prop OVER 24.5 POINTS – Kyrie Irving – Dallas Mavericks

The Kyrie deal to the Mavs has certainly been a bust but that doesn’t enter into the equation here. The fact of the matter is the Mavericks are in a must-win situation tonight facing a Kings team locked into the 3 seed in the West. Irving should have a big scoring night against a Sacramento team that allows the 4th most points to shooting guards on the season at 24.9PPG. Irving is averaging 26.5PPG on the season.