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NBA Rockets vs Mavericks Prediction | 10-31-24

ASA NBA free bet on UNDER 226 Houston Rockets at Dallas Mavericks, 8:40PM ET

We like a low scoring game between these two Texas teams with a projected final of 215 total points being scored.

Houston has made a commitment to the defensive end of the court under coach Udoka, currently ranking 8th in defensive efficiency allowing just 1.086-points per possession. Last season the Rockets finished the entire season ranked 10th in DEFF so it’s clearly not just a one year thing. When you look at full season stats the Mavs were not good defensively allowing 1.149-points per possession which ranked 18th in the NBA. In their last 23 games of the season though they allowed 1.104PPP, 9th best in the league.

This season in four games the Mavericks are allowing 1.098PPG which is 10th best in the league. Contrary to what you might think, the Mavs play at a slower tempo averaging 100 possessions per game which ranks 17th. The Rockets are slower yet in pace of play at 98.25, 25th slowest in the NBA.

Thus far into the season these two teams have not shot it well either with the Mavericks ranking 22nd in EFG% shooting, the Rockets are 28th. The average total points scored in a NBA game this season is slightly higher than this, but we don’t see this being average with a slow tempo, great defense and below average shooting. This NBA Rockets vs Mavericks prediction is UNDER the Total.

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NBA Prediction | OKC Thunder NBA Champions 2025

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ASA NBA Prediction: Oklahoma City Thunder: Champions of the 2024-25 NBA Season +700

The Oklahoma City Thunder, coming off an impressive season, have set the stage for what many are predicting to be their championship year in 2024-25. Here’s why the Thunder are not just contenders but our bet to lift the Larry O’Brien Trophy:

Statistical Dominance in 2023-24:

Net Scoring Margin: The Thunder ranked second only behind the Boston Celtics in Net Scoring Margin with a +7.3-scoring margin. This team could not only score at will but also was suffocating opponents defensively.

Offensive and Defensive Efficiency: Finishing third in offensive efficiency, the Thunder’s system under Coach Mark Daigneault has evolved into a machine with great playmaking, shooting, and dynamic scoring. Their fourth-place finish in defensive efficiency highlights a roster that’s not just about flashy plays but also about stifling defense, with the 3rd best Effective Field Goal Percentage D at 52.7%. The Thunder were also tough to score on in the paint, allowing the 6th fewest points per game in the lane at 46.3ppg.

Home Court Advantage:

Record: A staggering 33-8 at home with an average scoring differential of +12.3 points per game speaks volumes. This Thunder team is in line for another 30+ win season on their home court which is one of the best in the NBA. Oklahoma City was 24-17 SU on the road in the regular season with an average plus/minus of +2.3ppg.

Strategic Additions:

Alex Caruso: Known for his defensive prowess and hustle, Caruso’s addition brings a level of tenacity and versatility that’s invaluable. His impact goes beyond stats, often being the catalyst for momentum shifts with his energy and basketball IQ. Caruso hit 40.8% of his 3-point attempts last season in 71 games for the Bulls while scoring 10.1ppg.

Isaiah Hartenstein: Hartenstein’s arrival addresses depth in the front court, adding size, rebounding, and a new dimension to the Thunder’s offensive sets with his passing out of the post. His fit next to Holmgren could revolutionize their defensive schemes, offering versatility against various offensive looks. Hartenstein averaged 8.3 rebounds per game last season with the Knicks and 1.1 blocks per game.

Core Continuity and Growth:

With Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, and Chet Holmgren returning, the Thunder maintain their core that’s both young and experienced. Gilgeous-Alexander, after narrowly missing the MVP last season, seems poised for a leap, potentially securing the award this year with the added support.

The Oklahoma City Thunder, with their depth, star power, and unparalleled efficiency, are not just poised to make noise in the playoffs; they’re positioned to end the season as NBA Champions. Their journey this year is not just about potential but about realizing it, making 2024-25 the year the Thunder claim their rightful place at the top of the NBA mountain.

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