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NBA MVP Predictions | NBA Bets | April 2nd 2025

nba mvp prediction 2025

The 2024-25 NBA MVP Prediction: Nikola Jokić, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and Giannis Antetokounmpo Battle for Supremacy

NBA MVP Predictions: As the 2024-25 NBA regular season nears its conclusion, the race for the Most Valuable Player (MVP) award has crystallized into a thrilling showdown among three of the league’s brightest stars: Nikola Jokić of the Denver Nuggets, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander of the Oklahoma City Thunder, and Giannis Antetokounmpo of the Milwaukee Bucks. Each player brings a unique blend of statistical dominance, team success, and individual brilliance to the table, making this one of the most compelling MVP battles in recent memory. Let’s break down their cases by examining their per-game statistics, Player Efficiency Ratings (PER), team records, and win-share rates as of April 2, 2025.

Statistical Breakdown

Nikola Jokić (Denver Nuggets) +900 at Draftkings

  • Points per Game (PPG): 29.7
  • Rebounds per Game (RPG): 12.8
  • Assists per Game (APG): 10.3
  • Steals per Game (SPG): 1.8
  • Blocks per Game (BPG): 0.7
  • Player Efficiency Rating (PER): 32.2

Jokić is delivering what may be the finest season of his already illustrious career. The three-time MVP is on pace to become just the third player in NBA history to average a triple-double for an entire season, joining Oscar Robertson and Russell Westbrook. His efficiency is staggering, with a true shooting percentage hovering around 65.9%, and he’s posting career highs in points, assists, and steals. Jokić’s ability to orchestrate Denver’s offense while dominating the glass and contributing defensively makes him a one-man wrecking crew.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Oklahoma City Thunder) -2000 at Draftkings

  • Points per Game (PPG): 32.9
  • Rebounds per Game (RPG): 5.1
  • Assists per Game (APG): 6.3
  • Steals per Game (SPG): 1.7
  • Blocks per Game (BPG): 1.0
  • Player Efficiency Rating (PER): 30.9

Gilgeous-Alexander has emerged as the league’s leading scorer, blending relentless efficiency (52.6% field goal, 90.1% free throw) with a newfound penchant for highlight-reel performances, including four 50-point games this season. His all-around game is bolstered by career-best marks in blocks and a defensive tenacity that has him among the league leaders in steals. SGA’s consistency—scoring fewer than 20 points just once all year—underscores his value to the Thunder’s juggernaut season.

Giannis Antetokounmpo (Milwaukee Bucks) +50,000 at Draftkings

  • Points per Game (PPG): 30.4
  • Rebounds per Game (RPG): 11.9
  • Assists per Game (APG): 6.0
  • Steals per Game (SPG): 1.2
  • Blocks per Game (BPG): 1.3
  • Player Efficiency Rating (PER): 30

The Greek Freak remains a force of nature, averaging over 30 points on nearly 60% shooting from the field—a feat of efficiency that places him among the league’s most dominant interior scorers. His rebounding and playmaking continue to shine, and his defensive impact (1.3 blocks per game) keeps him in the conversation as a two-way titan. While his numbers don’t quite match the historic flair of Jokić or SGA’s scoring prowess, Giannis’ all-around excellence keeps him firmly in the MVP mix.

Team Records

Denver Nuggets: 47-29 third in the Western Conference)

Oklahoma City Thunder: 63-12 (first in the Western Conference, 14.5 games ahead of second place)

Milwaukee Bucks: 41-34 (sixth in the Eastern Conference)

Team success often plays a pivotal role in MVP voting, and here, Gilgeous-Alexander holds a clear edge. The Thunder’s 63-12 record is a testament to their dominance, with SGA as the driving force behind a 14.5-game lead in the West. Jokić’s Nuggets, while competitive, sit well behind at 47-29, hampered by injuries and a lack of consistent support around their star. Antetokounmpo’s Bucks, at 41-34, are in playoff contention but lack the top-tier record that has historically bolstered MVP candidacies.

Win-Share Rates

Win shares (WS) measure a player’s contribution to their team’s victories, blending offensive and defensive impact. Here’s how the trio stacks up this season:

Nikola Jokić: Approximately 14.5 win shares (estimated league leader)

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Approximately 13.8 win shares (estimated second in the league)

Giannis Antetokounmpo: Approximately 11.0 win shares (estimated top five)

Jokić’s win-share rate reflects his unparalleled impact on Denver’s success, carrying a roster that struggles mightily without him. His per-48-minute win shares are among the highest in NBA history, a nod to his efficiency and versatility. Gilgeous-Alexander’s slightly lower total is offset by his role on a vastly superior team, with a win-share-per-48 rate that ranks him in the all-time top 10. Antetokounmpo’s 11.0 win shares are impressive but trail the top two, reflecting Milwaukee’s middling record despite his brilliance.

The MVP Case: A Three-Way Comparison

Nikola Jokić has the statistical edge, with a triple-double average and a PER that could set a new personal best. His case hinges on the “value” argument—Denver’s mediocrity without him underscores his indispensability. However, voter fatigue (three MVPs in the last four years) and the Nuggets’ subpar record could hinder his chances.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander boasts the narrative of a breakout superstar leading the league’s best team. His scoring title, defensive improvement, and OKC’s historic 62-8 pace make him the betting favorite (odds as low as -2000 recently). Critics might argue his supporting cast lessens his individual burden compared to Jokić, but his consistency and team success are hard to ignore.

Giannis Antetokounmpo remains a dark horse, with a stat line that would dominate most seasons. His two-way impact and efficiency are undeniable, but Milwaukee’s inconsistent campaign and his distance from the top two in win shares and team record dim his prospects. Still, a late surge could vault him back into contention.

Conclusion

As of April 2, 2025, the MVP race is a razor-thin contest between Jokić and Gilgeous-Alexander, with Antetokounmpo as a worthy but distant third. Jokić’s historic numbers and singular impact give him a compelling case, but SGA’s scoring crown and the Thunder’s dominance might tip the scales. Giannis, while exceptional, seems destined for a top-five finish rather than the top spot. With two weeks left, every game will matter—but for now, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander holds the slight edge in the betting markets and odds are the voter fatigue with Jokic, despite his historic season, will land SGA this year’s MVP award. If I had a vote it’s the NIkola Jokic all day with his efficiency and win/share stats. Take him off the Nuggets and this team doesn’t make the playoffs.

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NBA free bet today | Nuggets vs Rockets prediction | March 23 2025

ASA NBA free bet today play on UNDER 225.5 Denver Nuggets at Houston Rockets, 7:10pm ET

This game will have a playoff vibe with the Rockets currently the #2 seed in the Western Conference, the Nuggets are 3rd, 2 games back of Houston.

Denver will be without MVP Nikola Jokic and his 29.1ppg and 10.3 assists per game. Denver’s offensive efficiency numbers have fallen off significantly in their last five games compared to their season long statistics. Scoring without the Joker is going to be difficult against this Rockets defense that ranks 3rd best in DEFF allowing just 1.100-points per possession.

Denver has managed just 108 and 109-points in their last two games against defenses not as good as this Rockets D. Houston is ‘average’ in terms of points per possession at 1.146PPP and a poor shooting team ranking 26th in EFG%.

We expect both defense and pace of play to be the main contributors to a low scoring game between these two teams fighting for better playoff seeding. Good luck with the NBA free bet today.

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NBA Player Prop Bet | LeBron James | Pelicans vs Lakers prediction

ASA NBA Free Player prop bet – LEBRON JAMES UNDER 42.5 POINTS+ASS+REBOUNDS

This could easily be a load management game for LeBron who is averaging over 34 minutes per game this season. The Lakers have a much bigger slate of games looming against the Knicks and Celtics so we estimate LeBron to play 30-33 minutes tonight against the Pelicans. In this minutes range LeBron is 6-2 UNDER tonight’s prop number of 42.5. Granted, the Pelicans are terrible defensively but if the Lakers do jump out big early don’t expect to see LeBron in the lineup late in the game. In the only meeting between these two teams this season, LeBron totaled 33 Pts+Rebs+Ass. Today’s NBA player prop bet is UNDER LeBron James Points+Rebounds+Assists.

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NBA Player Prop Bets | Suns vs Bulls | Feb 22 2025

NBA PLAYER PROP BETS FREE PICKS | Saturday, Feb 22nd 2025

ASA NBA Player Prop Bet – UNDER 20.5 POINTS – Coby White – Chicago Bulls

Chicago hosts the Phoenix Suns on Saturday and one player we expect to struggle scoring is Coby White of the Bulls. White has been UNDER his scoring prop in 3 straight games and UNDER 20.5 points in 10 of his last 15 games. He is averaging 18ppg on the season, shooting 43% overall and 37% from Deep. He averages 32.7 minutes per game and in games where he plays 30-33 minutes, he has stayed UNDER his scoring prop in 10 of the last twelve games. The Suns defense has done well against similar players to White in recent games holding opponents UNDER their scoring prop in 5 of the last six games. 60% of White’s scoring (excluding FT’s) comes from beyond the arc and the Suns 3PT% defense is 11th best in the league.

ASA NBA Player Prop Bet – OVER 30.5 POINTS + REBOUNDS – Nikola Vucevic – Chicago Bulls

We like Vucevic to have a big game against the Suns on Saturday. The Suns struggle to stop opposing Centers as they give up the 3rd most rebounds per game at 16.6 and allow the 4th most points per game at 23.5. Vucevic went through a slump right before the trade deadline as he was being shopped heavily but the Bulls. In his first game after the break against the Knicks he had a big Pts+Rebs game of 30 against New York. The significance of that number is that it came against a Knicks team that allows the 4th fewest Rebounds and Points p/game to opposing Centers. In two games against the Suns last season Vucevic had total Pts+Rebs of 32 and 36. We like him to go OVER 30.5 today.

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NBA free pick today | Suns vs Blazers | Feb 1 2025

ASA NBA free pick play on Portland Trailblazers +4 vs. Phoenix Suns – 10PM ET

The Blazers are playing extremely well right now with a 6-1 SU record in their last seven games and the loss was a competitive game at home against the Thunder.

Trailblazer bettors have been rewarded with 7 straight cashes against the spread. In this current 7-game stretch the Blazers have the best Net Rating in the NBA at +12.1.

Phoenix is coming off a big win last night against Golden State and the Suns haven’t been a good bet when playing without rest with a 2-5-1 ATS record this season. They’ve lost those ‘unrested’ games by an average of -5.5ppg. Looking at the Suns last 7 games we see they have a Net Rating of +4.3, 16th Offensively, 11th Defensively.

Portland has owned the glass in their last 7 games with a Rebound % of 53.1 which is 2nd best in the league. Phoenix ranks 12th in REB% over their last 7 games at 50.5.

Portland has been a solid home dog this season with a 13-8 ATS record. It won’t be a surprise if the Blazers win this game outright.  NBA free pick today.

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