Tag: NBA MVP

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NBA MVP Predictions | NBA Bets | April 2nd 2025

nba mvp prediction 2025

The 2024-25 NBA MVP Prediction: Nikola Jokić, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and Giannis Antetokounmpo Battle for Supremacy

NBA MVP Predictions: As the 2024-25 NBA regular season nears its conclusion, the race for the Most Valuable Player (MVP) award has crystallized into a thrilling showdown among three of the league’s brightest stars: Nikola Jokić of the Denver Nuggets, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander of the Oklahoma City Thunder, and Giannis Antetokounmpo of the Milwaukee Bucks. Each player brings a unique blend of statistical dominance, team success, and individual brilliance to the table, making this one of the most compelling MVP battles in recent memory. Let’s break down their cases by examining their per-game statistics, Player Efficiency Ratings (PER), team records, and win-share rates as of April 2, 2025.

Statistical Breakdown

Nikola Jokić (Denver Nuggets) +900 at Draftkings

  • Points per Game (PPG): 29.7
  • Rebounds per Game (RPG): 12.8
  • Assists per Game (APG): 10.3
  • Steals per Game (SPG): 1.8
  • Blocks per Game (BPG): 0.7
  • Player Efficiency Rating (PER): 32.2

Jokić is delivering what may be the finest season of his already illustrious career. The three-time MVP is on pace to become just the third player in NBA history to average a triple-double for an entire season, joining Oscar Robertson and Russell Westbrook. His efficiency is staggering, with a true shooting percentage hovering around 65.9%, and he’s posting career highs in points, assists, and steals. Jokić’s ability to orchestrate Denver’s offense while dominating the glass and contributing defensively makes him a one-man wrecking crew.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Oklahoma City Thunder) -2000 at Draftkings

  • Points per Game (PPG): 32.9
  • Rebounds per Game (RPG): 5.1
  • Assists per Game (APG): 6.3
  • Steals per Game (SPG): 1.7
  • Blocks per Game (BPG): 1.0
  • Player Efficiency Rating (PER): 30.9

Gilgeous-Alexander has emerged as the league’s leading scorer, blending relentless efficiency (52.6% field goal, 90.1% free throw) with a newfound penchant for highlight-reel performances, including four 50-point games this season. His all-around game is bolstered by career-best marks in blocks and a defensive tenacity that has him among the league leaders in steals. SGA’s consistency—scoring fewer than 20 points just once all year—underscores his value to the Thunder’s juggernaut season.

Giannis Antetokounmpo (Milwaukee Bucks) +50,000 at Draftkings

  • Points per Game (PPG): 30.4
  • Rebounds per Game (RPG): 11.9
  • Assists per Game (APG): 6.0
  • Steals per Game (SPG): 1.2
  • Blocks per Game (BPG): 1.3
  • Player Efficiency Rating (PER): 30

The Greek Freak remains a force of nature, averaging over 30 points on nearly 60% shooting from the field—a feat of efficiency that places him among the league’s most dominant interior scorers. His rebounding and playmaking continue to shine, and his defensive impact (1.3 blocks per game) keeps him in the conversation as a two-way titan. While his numbers don’t quite match the historic flair of Jokić or SGA’s scoring prowess, Giannis’ all-around excellence keeps him firmly in the MVP mix.

Team Records

Denver Nuggets: 47-29 third in the Western Conference)

Oklahoma City Thunder: 63-12 (first in the Western Conference, 14.5 games ahead of second place)

Milwaukee Bucks: 41-34 (sixth in the Eastern Conference)

Team success often plays a pivotal role in MVP voting, and here, Gilgeous-Alexander holds a clear edge. The Thunder’s 63-12 record is a testament to their dominance, with SGA as the driving force behind a 14.5-game lead in the West. Jokić’s Nuggets, while competitive, sit well behind at 47-29, hampered by injuries and a lack of consistent support around their star. Antetokounmpo’s Bucks, at 41-34, are in playoff contention but lack the top-tier record that has historically bolstered MVP candidacies.

Win-Share Rates

Win shares (WS) measure a player’s contribution to their team’s victories, blending offensive and defensive impact. Here’s how the trio stacks up this season:

Nikola Jokić: Approximately 14.5 win shares (estimated league leader)

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Approximately 13.8 win shares (estimated second in the league)

Giannis Antetokounmpo: Approximately 11.0 win shares (estimated top five)

Jokić’s win-share rate reflects his unparalleled impact on Denver’s success, carrying a roster that struggles mightily without him. His per-48-minute win shares are among the highest in NBA history, a nod to his efficiency and versatility. Gilgeous-Alexander’s slightly lower total is offset by his role on a vastly superior team, with a win-share-per-48 rate that ranks him in the all-time top 10. Antetokounmpo’s 11.0 win shares are impressive but trail the top two, reflecting Milwaukee’s middling record despite his brilliance.

The MVP Case: A Three-Way Comparison

Nikola Jokić has the statistical edge, with a triple-double average and a PER that could set a new personal best. His case hinges on the “value” argument—Denver’s mediocrity without him underscores his indispensability. However, voter fatigue (three MVPs in the last four years) and the Nuggets’ subpar record could hinder his chances.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander boasts the narrative of a breakout superstar leading the league’s best team. His scoring title, defensive improvement, and OKC’s historic 62-8 pace make him the betting favorite (odds as low as -2000 recently). Critics might argue his supporting cast lessens his individual burden compared to Jokić, but his consistency and team success are hard to ignore.

Giannis Antetokounmpo remains a dark horse, with a stat line that would dominate most seasons. His two-way impact and efficiency are undeniable, but Milwaukee’s inconsistent campaign and his distance from the top two in win shares and team record dim his prospects. Still, a late surge could vault him back into contention.

Conclusion

As of April 2, 2025, the MVP race is a razor-thin contest between Jokić and Gilgeous-Alexander, with Antetokounmpo as a worthy but distant third. Jokić’s historic numbers and singular impact give him a compelling case, but SGA’s scoring crown and the Thunder’s dominance might tip the scales. Giannis, while exceptional, seems destined for a top-five finish rather than the top spot. With two weeks left, every game will matter—but for now, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander holds the slight edge in the betting markets and odds are the voter fatigue with Jokic, despite his historic season, will land SGA this year’s MVP award. If I had a vote it’s the NIkola Jokic all day with his efficiency and win/share stats. Take him off the Nuggets and this team doesn’t make the playoffs.

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NBA predictions by ASA for 2022-23

ASA’s NBA predictions Total Win bet, Futures and NBA wagers!

NBA predictions 2022-23

By ASAwins

Let’s break down the NBA and get our Future Bets or NBA predictions made before the season tips off on Tuesday. First off, we are coming off a record-breaking NBA season a year ago with over 90-Net Units of profit for the year. Our NBA wagers were 141-95 on the year when you include the free bets we posted here, and we finished with 28-14 STREAK in the post-season.

Typically, we don’t like to tie up a lot of money with future bets and would rather invest it during the regular season, but we do make an exception on a few wagers or these NBA predictions.

EASTERN CONFERENCE TOTAL WIN BET

UNDER 53.5 BOSTON CELTICS – “The hunters become the hunted!”

Boston won 51-games in the regular season a year ago but will have a tough time getting to that number in 2022-23. We still like the Celtics to be one of the best teams in the East but after getting to the NBA Finals a year ago they will have a target on their backs and get everyone’s best game night in and night out. Not to mention, the Eastern Conference is absolutely loaded this year. The Nets are healthy and will have a full complement of players this year including Kyrie Irving, Kevin Durant and also get Joe Harris back from injury along with wild-card Ben Simmons. The Heat won 53-games last season and return their core of key personnel in Butler, Adebayo, Herro and Lowry, plus a healthy Oladipo. Milwaukee has one of the MVP favorites in Giannis Antetokounmpo and will be a contender again to win it all in 2023. Philadelphia has their own MVP candidate in Joel Embiid and James Harden. Any one of the previously mentioned teams can win the East this year. Now throw in a group of teams that will be mid-40 win teams: Raptors, Bulls, Cavaliers (added Donovan Mitchell) and you can see how tough every game in Conference play will be. Even some of the bottom teams in the East will be better than they were a season ago.

The Celtics have a fantastic core with Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Marcus Smart, Al Horford, the Williams duo and recently added Malcolm Brogdon. The bench has depth with Derrick White, Payton Pritchard and 2nd year sniper Sam Hauser. We feel it will be tough though for the Celtics to duplicate last season’s impressive efficiency stats of 1.144-points per possession scored and .966-points allowed given the circumstances.

Yes, the Celtics are a serious title contender this season, but they’ll get everyone’s best this season and will slip slightly in the win column.

WESTERN CONFERENCE TOTAL WIN BET

OVER 49 DENVER NUGGETS – “The Joker gets help!”

This NBA wager is on the Over the projected win total for the Denver Nuggets. Last season the Nuggets finished 6th in the Western Conference and did it on the back of Nikola Jokic who put up 27.1PPG, 13.8RPG and 7.9APG with a 32.94 Player Efficiency Rating (best in the NBA). This season they get All-Star level guard Jamal Murray back along with instant scorer Michael Porter Jr. They also have power forward Aaron Gordon on the roster who is coming off a solid 15PPG/5.9RPG season. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is another key addition to this roster. Denver owned the 12th best average Margin of Victory in the NBA last season at +2.5PPG. They were 6th overall in offensive efficiency, 15th in DEFF. It certainly helps when the Nuggets play in the Northwest Division with a pair of bad teams in the Thunder and Jazz who may not win 49 games combined. The Nuggets have the easiest schedule in the NBA based on our metrics which include: 7 road games playing the 2nd night of a back-to-back and 5 home games the second night of a B2B. Both of those rank top 11 fewest in the NBA. The Nuggets have enjoyed one of the best home courts in the NBA in recent years where they win 70% of their games.

If Joker does what he does, and Murray/Porter Jr. can stay healthy this team could very well come out of the Western Conference.

NBA MVP LONGSHOT

Ja Morant – Memphis Grizzlies +1400

The Grizzlies finished 56-26 SU in the regular season a year ago and finished 2nd overall in the Western Conference standings. Memphis had the 5th best offensive efficiency rating at 1.147-points per possession and were 4th in DEFF allowing 1.090PPP. They were also 4th in net scoring differential at +5.7PPG. Memphis has an MVP candidate in Ja Morant who is clearly capable of taking over games by himself after averaging 32.1-points per 36-minutes. Morant is going to have to do more this season with Jaren Jackson Jr sidelined for 4-6 months. Morant was 18th in assists per game last season at 6.7 and was 4th in rebounds per game for guards at 5.7. He gets a ton of media attention with his high-flying style of play, will be on a playoff team and could be a league leader in several different categories. Ja Morant is worth a shot at +1400.

NBA Champion – Milwaukee Bucks +800

Other NBA wagers – Division Over/Under win totals

Atlantic Under 53.5 Boston Celtics

Southeast Over 35.5 Washington Wizards

Central Over 41.5 Chicago Bulls

Northwest Over 49 Denver Nuggets

Southwest Over 48.5 Memphis Grizzlies

Pacific Under 45.5 LA Lakers

MVP Winners

Favorite – Giannis Antetokounmpo +550

Mid-Range – Ja Morant +1400

Longshot – Devin Booker +2800