Tag: NBA future bets

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NBA Future Bets – 2023-24 – By ASA

NBA Future Bets – Oct 23rd

If you’re looking for a few NBA Over-Under wagers or Future bets for the upcoming season, you’ve come to the right place.

ASA is coming off a banner season in the NBA, one of their best in 30+ years and have already been hard at work assessing all of the NBA’s rosters/teams in anticipation of the season.

Here are the bets we’ve already made and the best options for your future options.

L.A. CLIPPERS OVER 46.5 WINS

This roster is largely intact from a year ago and will hopefully benefit from having Kawhi Leonard for more than the 52 games he played a year ago. Of course, that’s also a risk as Leonard has been injury prone, but when he’s healthy he is still one of the 10 best players in the league. The Clippers defensive efficiency numbers slipped last season but expect them to get back to their numbers of previous season when they lived in the top 10 in that category. In fact, the Clippers ranked top 10 in DEFF in 2020, 21 and 2022. Last year the Clippers finished 12th in offensive efficiency after finishing in the top 5 in two of the three previous seasons. Los Angeles won 44 games a year ago and had a positive +/- of +0.1PPG. The value in the number is our driving factor in this wager as the Oddmakers posted a total win number of 52.5 last season on this same roster. The Clippers had one of the worst records in the NBA in games decided by 5-points or less at 8-38 so expect a few more wins in close games and an easy Over ticket winner.

DENVER NUGGETS UNDER 52.5 WINS

The World Champs should see a regression in their win total for several factors including the fact they will have a target on their backs every night out. Secondly, the Nuggets suffered a few key losses in Bruce Brown and Jeff Green who were instrumental in their Championship run. Last season the Nuggets won 53 games in the regular season and had an average Margin of Victory of +3.2PPG which was 6th best in the league. Denver owned the 3rd best offensive efficiency rating during the regular season and were below average in defensive efficiency allowing 1.110-points per possession ranking 17th. We expect the rest of the Northwest Division to be improved over last season which will make getting to 53 wins more difficult. Overall, the entire Western Conference is loaded from top to bottom with up to seven teams being legitimate contenders to win the Conference. We are betting on a slight regression for the Nuggets and their regular season win total.

BOSTON CELTICS OVER 54.5 WINS

This Celtics roster is better than last year’s that won 57-games with the additions of Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis. The Celtics now feature a core group of Super Stars that can sustain winning results through multiple injuries if they occur during the regular season. They also have depth with the likes of Sam Hauser, Derrick White, Al Horford and Payton Prichard. Gone from the Celtics roster are Grant Williams, Robert Williams and Marcus Smart, but the additions far outweigh the subtractions. Boston was 1st in Efficiency differential last season at +6.6, they were 2nd in offensive efficiency averaging 1.181-points per possession and 3rd defensively allowing 1.115PPP. The Celtics had the best overall Average Margin of Victory at +5.9PPG and were one of only six teams to have a positive road differential at +2.9PPG. The Eastern Conference isn’t nearly as good as the West which will make winning 55+ games a very realistic opportunity for the C’s.

GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS UNDER 48.5 WINS

The Warriors have an aging roster, and the saying Father time waits for no man applies to this team more than anyone. Golden State didn’t get any younger this season when they traded for Chris Paul and we don’t see him being a great fit in the Warriors fast paced offense. When the Warriors were winning Championships, they had one of the best defenses in the NBA. In three of the four seasons the Warriors won it all they ranked top 10 in defensive efficiency three times. Last season this group slipped to 15th in the NBA in DEFF. In our rankings, we have the Pacific Division as the best in basketball with the Suns, Clippers, Lakers, Kings and Warriors. Golden State was 13-16 SU against the Pacific last season and collectively those teams are all better this season. The Warriors really struggled on the road last regular season with an 11-30 SU away record and an average Margin of Victory of minus -5.9PPG which ranked bottom five in the league. To be a great team in the NBA you have to win on the road and the Warriors just don’t qualify as a great team anymore. Golden State won 44 games a season ago and we’ll project a .500 season at 41-41.

Good luck – ASA

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NBA MVP Winners and Losers – Nov 18th

ASA NBA Future MVP wagers as of Nov 18th.

If you are a bettor that likes to invest in NBA futures here are a couple wagers to consider for league MVP. We are sticking with a pair of our preseason predictions but have added another based on early season results.

Giannis Antetokounmpo +$250

Before the season started, we predicted Giannis Antetokounmpo as the NBA league MVP at +$250. Giannis is putting up 29.9PPG, 11.8RPG, 5.5APG with a PER rating of 29.14. In order he ranks 8th, 2nd, 29th and 6th in those four key categories. Milwaukee holds the 2nd best record in the Eastern Conference at 11-3. The Greek Freak is quietly putting up numbers similar to his 2019 and 2020 season when he won back-to-back MVP’s.

Ja Morant +$1400

We also like a long shot early on with Ja Morant who is now listed at +1400. We still like Morant who is 9th in scoring at 29.3PPG while also averaging 6.8-Assists Per Game (14th) and 6.2-Rebounds Per Game (60th) with a PER of 26.19 (10th). Memphis has dealt with a number of key injuries early on but have still managed a 9-6 record. For Morant to win though he will have to improve on his assists per game and Memphis will need to finish as one of the top teams in the West.

Jayson Tatum $+550

New to the table is Jason Tatum who has led the Celtics to a 12-3 record and the best team +/- in the league at +7.1PPG. We won’t be surprised if Boston finishes first in the East again and if that’s the case, Tatum will be high on the voter’s radar. Tatum has the 7th best PER at 27.50, is 5th in scoring at 31.1PPG, is grabbing 7.4 Boards Per Game (40th) and is dishing out 4.1APG which ranks 50th. What makes Tatum as an attractive option right now is the fact that his team is deep and defenses can’t key on him. Boston spaces the floor with shooters at every position and they make shots at a 48.8% which is 3rd in the NBA. That means additional assist per game for Tatum even if he isn’t scoring as much.

HONORABLE MENTION – Shai Gilgeous-Alexander – SGA won’t win MVP this season because he’s on a losing team in the Thunder but he’s put up incredible numbers to start the season and is worth mentioning. Gilgeous-Alexander is scoring 32.3PPG, grabbing 4.5RPG and dishing out 5.9APG. His PER rating is 30.10 which is 3rd best in the NBA.

Here is our elimination list or players I would avoid investing in: #1 on the list is Zion Williamson. Who in their right mind would invest in this “china doll” who can’t stay healthy? Yes, he can be a stat-sheet stuffer but there is no chance he wins MVP playing limited games this season. #2 Nikola Jokic. Jokic has won it the past two seasons which and it’s unlikely we would see a three-year run from the media. He also has Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. back from injury and both cut into his scoring numbers.

Top 25 Current MVP odds

NBA 2023 MVP WINNER ODDS
  
PlayerOdds
Luka Doncic250
Giannis Antetokounmpo260
Jayson Tatum550
Stephen Curry1100
Joel Embiid1200
Ja Morant1400
Donovan Mitchell2000
Kevin Durant2200
Nikola Jokic3000
Devin Booker4000
Trae Young5000
Damian Lillard5000
Zion Williamson5000
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander7000
Pascal Siakam7000
DeMar DeRozan10000
Jimmy Butler15000
James Harden15000
Paul George20000
Jaylen Brown25000
Lauri Markkanen25000
De’Aaron Fox25000
LeBron James25000

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