Tag: NBA free bets today

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NBA Free pick | Bucks at Pacers | December 31st 2024

ASA NBA FREE play or NBA prediction on Indiana Pacers vs.  Milwaukee Bucks, 3:10PM ET

*Note the early start of this game.*  

There is some bad blood between these two teams that genuinely don’t like each other.

Milwaukee won the first meeting of the season at home 129-117, but it took 53% shooting overall and 47% from Deep to notch that win.

Both teams have had some injury concerns early on but the Pacers are in a better current situation as the Bucks had an illness run through the team this past week.

When we look at the last 10 games for these teams, we find the Pacers are 7-3 SU with a +3.5 Net Rating compared to the Bucks at 5-5 SU with a negative NR of -0.9.

Indiana hasn’t been great at home with an 8-5 SU record, but they still have a positive differential of +1.3ppg. The Bucks are 5-9 SU on the road this season with a negative differential of minus -1.1ppg. Now that the Pacers are getting healthy, we expect a regression to their home court dominance like last season when they had the 5th best average +/- at home of +7.4ppg.

Speaking of home/road numbers. The home team has won 8 of the last 10 meetings between these two teams. We like that trend to continue here. NBA free bet on the Indiana Pacers Money Line +100 vs. Milwaukee Bucks.

ASA NBA player prop bet OVER 13.5 POINTS – Khris Middleton Milwaukee Bucks

This is an unusually low number for Middleton considering his minutes are going up and he has scored more than this in 5 straight games.

Granted, his field goal attempts will take a hit here with Giannis potentially coming back but there is still value in this Over.

K-Midd is averaging 13.37 points per game this season and should have a solid scoring game against a Pacers defense that isn’t very good.

Indiana is 23rd in Defensive Efficiency ratings allowing 1.165 points per possession.

In his last 5 games against the Pacers, Middleton has put up 19, 20, 14, 21 and 19-points.

Indiana gives up 22ppg to Small Forwards this season, 11th most in the NBA.

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NBA free bet | Suns vs Warriors Prediction | December 28th 2024

ASA’s NBA free bet on UNDER 219.5 Phoenix Suns at Golden State Warriors, 8:30PM ET

Both teams are coming off a game last night and playing their 4th game in 6 days so fatigue is going to be a factor. Golden State has turned into a solid Under team with 14 of their last eighteen games staying below the number.

Looking at their most recent 15 games we find they are the 27th lowest scoring team in the NBA over that stretch averaging just 105.1ppg.

Phoenix has now stayed Under in 5 of their last six games and scored 90 or less in two of those games.

Over each teams last five games the Suns have played at the 3rd slowest tempo in the league, the Warriors 14th slowest.

These same two teams met on November 30th and combined to score 218 total points. With how the betting markets are reacting to this O/U it’s obvious that sharp money is on the Under. We agree.

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NBA FREE BET | Suns vs Jazz prediction | Dec 13 2024

ASA Free NBA play on Over 233.5 Phoenix Suns at Utah Jazz – Friday 9:40PM ET

When these two teams have gotten together, they have scored 230+ points in 5 straight games dating back to the start of last season, including a 232 total earlier this season.

The Suns just faced two top 11 defenses in the Heat and Magic and will now take advantage of a Jazz defense that isn’t good. Utah is 29th out of 30 teams in Defensive Efficiency rating allowing 1.199-points per possession. Utah has allowed 133 and 141 in two of their last three games.

The Jazz offense has struggled at times but should  put up points in this game too against a Suns defense that has holes. Phoenix started the season playing well defensively but have now slipped to 21st in DEFF.

The Suns have allowed 121 or more points in two of their last 3 games. With the history of high scoring games between these two teams we like another one on Friday night.

BONUS – PLAYER PROP – OVER 24.5 Devin Booker scoring prop. The Jazz allow the 5th most points to PG’s this season and the 7th most to SG’s and in the first meeting this season Booker went off for 31. Booker who has topped 25-points in 7 of his last 8 games.

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NBA Free Bets today | Pistons vs Knicks Prediction | Dec 7 2024

ASA NBA free bet on NY Knicks -9.5 vs Detroit Pistons, 7:40PM ET

The young Pistons have been competitive this season as an underdog with a 5-3-1 ATS record and an average differential of minus -2.2ppg. The Knicks though have been crushing teams of late with an overall 6-3-1 ATS record as a home favorite this season +15.2ppg.

New Yorks last five home games have been decided by +24, +15, +33, +28 and +10-points. They have been double-digit chalks in 5 straight home games and are 4-0-1 ATS in that stretch.

This Detroit team is heading in the right direction, but they’ve just played two similar opponents to the Knicks in the Bucks and Celtics. They lost by 19 at home to Milwaukee in a must win NBA Cup playoff game, then lost to the Celtics by 10-points in a game that wasn’t as close as the final score. Detroit made 20 3-pointers against the Celtics and shot 51% from Deep.

Do not expect the Pistons to have another great shooting night like they did against the C’s as they are a 35.8% 3PT shooting team on the season with an average of 13.1 makes per game.

New York has been one of the best offensive teams in the NBA this entire season, shooting a hair under 50% as a team which is 2nd best in the league. They have the best Offensive Efficiency rating at 1.223-points per possession.

Defensively the Knicks uncharacteristically rank 17th in DEFF for the season but in their last five games we are starting to see the Knicks D show up. In their most recent 5 games the Knicks have the 4th best DEFF allowing just 1.071PPP.

Watch for the starting lineups in this game as Brunson is listed as questionable. Either way we like the Knicks by more than 10-points.

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Nuggets vs Clippers Prediction | Dec 1 2024 | NBA Free Bet

ASA play on UNDER 223 Denver Nuggets at LA Clippers, 10PM ET

The Clippers have become one of the best defensive teams in the NBA this season (hired Jeff Van Gundy as an assistant coach) as they allow the 4th fewest points per possession in the league. L.A. has held 6 of their last seven opponents to less than 100 points, which is unheard of in today’s NBA.

Denver’s defense hasn’t been as good this season and recently gave up 145 to the Knicks which caused a meltdown with head coach Malone who publicly criticized his team’s effort. The Nuggets responded in their next game by holding the Jazz to 103 points.

These two teams met earlier this season and produced 213 total points. They have not scored more than this O/U number in 5 straight meetings and 8 of their last nine.

Denver hasn’t played since Wednesday and with 2-4 days rest dating back to last season they are 19-7 Under with those games staying below the number by an average of 8ppg.

When these two teams play a conference opponent the Under is 102-57-2 since the start of last season. Bet Under!

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