ASA NBA free bet on UNDER 226 Houston Rockets at Dallas Mavericks, 8:40PM ET
We like a low scoring game between these two Texas teams with a projected final of 215 total points being scored.
Houston has made a commitment to the defensive end of the court under coach Udoka, currently ranking 8th in defensive efficiency allowing just 1.086-points per possession. Last season the Rockets finished the entire season ranked 10th in DEFF so it’s clearly not just a one year thing. When you look at full season stats the Mavs were not good defensively allowing 1.149-points per possession which ranked 18th in the NBA. In their last 23 games of the season though they allowed 1.104PPP, 9th best in the league.
This season in four games the Mavericks are allowing 1.098PPG which is 10th best in the league. Contrary to what you might think, the Mavs play at a slower tempo averaging 100 possessions per game which ranks 17th. The Rockets are slower yet in pace of play at 98.25, 25th slowest in the NBA.
Thus far into the season these two teams have not shot it well either with the Mavericks ranking 22nd in EFG% shooting, the Rockets are 28th. The average total points scored in a NBA game this season is slightly higher than this, but we don’t see this being average with a slow tempo, great defense and below average shooting. This NBA Rockets vs Mavericks prediction is UNDER the Total.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs Milwaukee Bucks: Betting Preview for the Emirates Cup Final Game Overview: Tonight, the much-anticipated Emirates Cup final pits the Oklahoma City Thunder against the Milwaukee Bucks at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. Both teams have showcased their prowess throughout the tournament, with the Thunder leading the Western Conference and the… Read more: NBA Cup Finals Preview | Thunder vs Bucks | Dec 17th 2024
NBA Predictions – WESTERN CONFERENCE OVER/UNDER WIN TOTALS OVER 49.5 DALLAS MAVERICKS – Dallas won 50 games a year ago and finished the season 10th in Offensive Efficiency, 13th in DEFF. The Mavs should be better this season with a full season of PJ Washington on the roster after coming over from Charlotte at the… Read more: NBA Predictions Future Bets | Western Conference | 2025
ASA NBA Prediction: Oklahoma City Thunder: Champions of the 2024-25 NBA Season +700 The Oklahoma City Thunder, coming off an impressive season, have set the stage for what many are predicting to be their championship year in 2024-25. Here’s why the Thunder are not just contenders but our bet to lift the Larry O’Brien Trophy:… Read more: NBA Prediction | OKC Thunder NBA Champions 2025
MNF Saints vs. Chiefs Prediction | Player Prop bets | October 7th 2024 Game Overview: The Kansas City Chiefs, coming off an impressive start with a 4-0 record, are hosting the New Orleans Saints, who stand at 2-2, in a Monday Night Football showdown at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. This game marks a significant… Read more: New Orleans Saints vs Kansas City Chiefs Preview | MNF | 10-7-24
Cowboys vs Steelers Preview – Player Props Game Preview: Team Analysis: Key Betting Insights: Trends and Predictions: Betting Picks – Player props: Look at Justin Fields for over 186.5 passing yards if you believe he’ll have to throw more due to the Cowboys’ defensive adjustments. Fields has thrown fover over this number in his last… Read more: Dallas Cowboys vs Pittsburgh Steelers Prediction | Oct 6th 2024
ASA play on UNDER 11.5 Rebounds Josh Hart – NY Knicks
Hart suffered an abdominal strain in the previous game and played just 30 minutes after logging 43+ in 3 of the first 6 games of this series. He was clearly hurt in Game 6 and this is the type of injury that can easily be aggravated. Hart’s greatest asset is his toughness and willingness to go after every loss ball or rebound. He is one of the better rebounding guards in the NBA but today we don’t see him getting to double-digit boards in what could be a limited capacity. Hart is averaging 11.4 rebounds per game in his last 10 games so slightly Under this Total and he has averaged just 7.3 RPG in the last three games of this series.
ASA play on OVER 21.5 Points Pascal Siakam – Indiana Pacers
When you talk about the Pacers, naturally the conversation revolves around Haliburton, but Siakam is the guy you can count on most for scoring in clutch situations. We know Siakam’s usage rate will be high in this elimination game and the Knicks are without their best defender in Anunoby and Josh Hart is not 100%. Siakam had his way in Game 6 with 25-points on 11 of 21 shooting but only played 30 minutes in the Pacers win. He has scored 22+ points against the Knicks in 3 of the last four games and the game he didn’t post a big scoring number was the blowout home win in Game 4 when he played just 22 minutes. Siakam will get his share of looks in this game and should see field goal attempts of 19 which will be enough to push his scoring total Over the number.
*action on pitchers* Scott “The Bulldog” Rickenbach MLB Friday Free Pick Milwaukee Brewers +105 @ Cincinnati Reds @ 6:40 ET – I know the Brewers have been struggling but this is a great value spot for them in my opinion. Milwaukee is scheduled to start Eric Lauer and he has better numbers on the season…
Kentucky Derby bet 2022
#10 Zandon at 3/1 odds Who’d thought after the Blue Grass win, he’d be the morning line favorite in the Kentucky Derby at 3/1! I texted a buddy a few weeks back and said you think Zandon will be less than 9/1 come Kentucky Derby, we both said yes around 5/6-1, I didn’t BITE and…
Akron vs Miami OH prediction – ASA – Feb 12
ASA free pick Friday – #863 Akron -4 @ Miami OH, 7PM ET – Akron looks to keep pace with Toledo who leads the MAC as of this writing with an 11-2 overall record with Akron right behind them at 9-3. Miami OH is currently 6th and fading fast with a 1-3 SU record their…
ASA free NBA Playoffs bet UNDER 112 1ST HALF POINTS – Mavericks at Thunder, 9:30PM ET
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Both teams have favored the Under in the 1st halves of games in the Playoffs with Dallas staying Under in 4 of six games against the Clippers, the Thunder played Under in 3 of four vs. the Pelicans.
We can throw out the regular season 1st half totals between these two teams based on injuries and situations. The Mavericks defense has been significantly better down the stretch of the regular season and were much better against the Clippers.
Dallas has a defensive Net rating of 109.5 in the post season which is the 6th best number in the league. The team that has the best defensive Net rating in the Playoffs is OKC at 93.5. The Thunder held the Pelicans to 92, 92, 85 and 89 points in the opening round series.
Dallas is also the 4th slowest paced team in the playoffs at 92 possessions per game. Granted, the Thunder are the 2nd fastest at 95.88 but that number is considerably lower than their regular season possessions per game of 100.5. The value lies with an Under bet in the 1st half of this Game 1.
NFL FREE BET – #109 ASA FREE PLAY ON Arizona Cardinals -4 over Carolina Panthers, Sunday at 1 PM ET Carolina had played a few decent games in a row and had a chance to prove themselves last week as a small favorite vs a bad Dallas team playing their back up QB. That didn’t… Read more: NFL free bet Sunday | Cardinals vs Panthers Prediction | 12-22-24
ASA NBA play on Brooklyn Nets -2.5 vs. Utah Jazz, 7 :40PM ET We are going to try and beat the Jazz again tonight when they travel to Brooklyn to face the Nets. Utah is clearly one of the worst teams in the NBA this season and we are betting they don’t win two games in… Read more: NBA Free Bet | Jazz vs Nets Prediction | December 21st 2024
ASA NBA PLAYER PROP UNDER 11.5 REBOUND GIANNIS ANTETOKOUNMPO – MILWAUKEE BUCKS Giannis just went over his rebounding prop against the Hawks in Emirates Cup play the other nightwith 14 but Atlanta allows the most rebounds to Power Forwards in the NBA 15.4 per game. Giannis has only been over this total 2 times in… Read more: NBA player prop bets | December 17th 2024 | Emirates Cup Final
#469/470 ASA PLAY ON Under 43 Points – Pittsburgh Steelers vs Philadelphia Eagles, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET Two high level defenses rule the day here. The Eagles lead the NFL allowing only 4.7 YPP and since their bye in week 5, they have allowed only 1.29 points per drive which is tops in the… Read more: NFL FREE BET | Steelers vs Eagles Prediction | Dec 15 2024
ASA Free NBA play on Over 233.5 Phoenix Suns at Utah Jazz – Friday 9:40PM ET When these two teams have gotten together, they have scored 230+ points in 5 straight games dating back to the start of last season, including a 232 total earlier this season. The Suns just faced two top 11 defenses… Read more: NBA FREE BET | Suns vs Jazz prediction | Dec 13 2024
ASA’s NBA FREE PLAYER PROP BET – OVER 23.5 POINTS CJ MCCOLLUM – Pelicans
CJ McCollum is coming off a horrendous shooting game versus the Lakers going 4 of 15 from the field. It wasn’t an issue throughout the game as his teammate Zion Williamson was scoring at will with 40-points prior to getting hurt. CJ will have to step up here against a Kings defense that ranks 21st in opponents FG% and 28th in opponents 3PT%. McCollum has scored more than his prop total in 7 of his last eight games and is inline for a big bounce back game here with Williamson on the shelf.
NFL FREE BET – #109 ASA FREE PLAY ON Arizona Cardinals -4 over Carolina Panthers, Sunday at 1 PM ET Carolina had played a few decent games in a row and had a chance to prove themselves last week as a small favorite vs a bad Dallas team playing their back up QB. That didn’t… Read more: NFL free bet Sunday | Cardinals vs Panthers Prediction | 12-22-24
ASA NBA play on Brooklyn Nets -2.5 vs. Utah Jazz, 7 :40PM ET We are going to try and beat the Jazz again tonight when they travel to Brooklyn to face the Nets. Utah is clearly one of the worst teams in the NBA this season and we are betting they don’t win two games in… Read more: NBA Free Bet | Jazz vs Nets Prediction | December 21st 2024
ASA NBA PLAYER PROP UNDER 11.5 REBOUND GIANNIS ANTETOKOUNMPO – MILWAUKEE BUCKS Giannis just went over his rebounding prop against the Hawks in Emirates Cup play the other nightwith 14 but Atlanta allows the most rebounds to Power Forwards in the NBA 15.4 per game. Giannis has only been over this total 2 times in… Read more: NBA player prop bets | December 17th 2024 | Emirates Cup Final
#469/470 ASA PLAY ON Under 43 Points – Pittsburgh Steelers vs Philadelphia Eagles, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET Two high level defenses rule the day here. The Eagles lead the NFL allowing only 4.7 YPP and since their bye in week 5, they have allowed only 1.29 points per drive which is tops in the… Read more: NFL FREE BET | Steelers vs Eagles Prediction | Dec 15 2024
ASA Free NBA play on Over 233.5 Phoenix Suns at Utah Jazz – Friday 9:40PM ET When these two teams have gotten together, they have scored 230+ points in 5 straight games dating back to the start of last season, including a 232 total earlier this season. The Suns just faced two top 11 defenses… Read more: NBA FREE BET | Suns vs Jazz prediction | Dec 13 2024
So, you’re thinking about a future wager on the NBA Championship and you’re not sure who to take? We can help you with some proven statistics that may accurately predict who this year’s Champion may be and rule out the most obvious media darling pretenders.
The backbone of this research is centered around efficiency ratings/rankings compiled through the regular season and is a tool I first discovered in the early 2000’s. Since then, I have seen several variations of my original work from other experts in the field, but here is the authentic version.
The average overall efficiency rating this season in the NBA was 1.153 points scored/allowed per possession. The Boston Celtics were the most efficient offense in the NBA at 1.232 points per possessions while the Minnesota Timberwolves held the best defensive efficiency rating in the league of 1.090 points allowed per/possession. If past history tells us anything, these numbers can be extremely useful in predicting this year’s eventual NBA Champion.
This trend started in 2008-09 when the Finals featured the LA Lakers with head coach Phil Jackson and HOF’er Kobe Bryant, facing the Orlando Magic and a young Dwight Howard. The Lakers won that Finals series in dominating fashion 4 games to 1. The Lakers finished the regular season ranked 3rd in offensive efficiency ratings (OEFF) and 6th in defensive efficiency (DEFF). Orlando had efficiency numbers that ranked them 12th in OEFF and 1st in DEFF. This was the beginning of the “efficiency” NBA Champions.
Below are the NBA Finals Champions and their overall efficiency rankings for the past 15 Championships.
NBA CHAMPIONS FROM 2008 on and OEFF/DEFF regular season efficiency rankings:
2008-09 LA Lakers (OEFF = 3rd, DEFF = 6th)
2009-10 LA Lakers (OEFF = 11th, DEFF = 4th)
2010-11 Dallas Mavericks (OEFF = 8th, DEFF = 7th)
2011-12 Miami Heat (OEFF = 8th, DEFF = 4th)
2012-13 Miami Heat (OEFF = 1st, DEFF = 9th)
2013-14 San Antonio Spurs (OEFF = 7th, DEFF = 3rd)
2014-15 Golden State Warriors (OEFF = 2nd, DEFF = 1st)
2016-17 Golden State Warriors (OEFF = 1st, DEFF = 2nd)
2017-18 Golden State Warriors (OEFF = 3rd, DEFF = 11th)
2018-19 Toronto Raptors (OEFF = 5th, DEFF = 5th)
2019-20 LA Lakers Covid (OEFF = 11th, DEFF = 3rd)
2020-21 Milwaukee Bucks (OEFF = 6th, DEFF = 10th)
2021-22 Golden State Warriors (OEFF = 16th, DEFF = 2nd)
2022-23 Denver Nuggets (OEFF 5th, DEFF = 13th)
EFFICIENCY RATINGS MATTER
You can see for yourself that there have only been two teams that have won a Championship in the last fifteen years that had an (offensive efficiency) OEFF or (defensive efficiency) DEFF NOT in the top 11 for that season. It has been the last two Champs in the Warriors in 21-22 and Nuggets last season. Every team that has won a Championship in the past 15 Finals has specifically had a Defensive Efficiency ranking in the top 13 at the end of the regular season.
Using this model (top 11 OEFF and top 13 in DEFF) to predict this year’s Champion we can eliminate everyone but the following teams: Celtics, Thunder, Nuggets, Knicks, Suns and Pelicans. On the outside looking in is Philadelphia who we know played a portion of the season without an MVP type player in Joel Embiid. The Sixers were 13th in OEFF and 11th in DEFF this season. Another team who we pegged prior to the start of the season at +2500 to win it all, who falls outside of this parameter, is the Mavericks. The Mavs rank 10th in OEFF on the season but don’t qualify defensively, ranking 18th in DEFF for the year. But, since the All-Star break the Mavs defense has been infinitely better, ranking 12th in defensive efficiency allowing 1.134PPP.
2023-24 Regular Season Efficiency Rankings for the Math Model “Contenders”
Boston Celtics: OEFF 1st, DEFF 3rd
Oklahoma City Thunder: OEFF 3rd, DEFF 4th
Denver Nuggets: OEFF 5th, DEFF 8th
NY Knicks: OEFF 7th, DEFF 9th
New Orleans Pelicans: OEFF 11th, DEFF 7th
Phoenix Suns: OEFF 9th, DEFF 13th
Let’s also take into consideration how these teams fared this season against the other top 16 teams in the league.
Celtics 27-14 SU
Thunder 27-18 SU
T’Wolves 26-19 SU
Nuggets 28-18 SU
Knicks 17-23
Suns 23-22
Intriguing options not on the list! – Dallas Mavericks (+1600) or Los Angeles Clippers (+1600)
As we mentioned above the Mavericks would make this list if we tabulated stats from the All-Star break on. Dallas made some moves prior to the trade deadline and brought in PJ Washington and Daniel Gafford which improved their defense dramatically. Offensively this team has two of the best players on the planet, Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving who can each single-handedly take over a game on the offensive end of the court. The Clippers go as far as a healthy Kawhi Leonard can take them. Unfortunately, we don’t know Leonard’s status but “Playoff Kawhi” is as good as any player historically in the NBA in the postseason. L.A. is loaded with All-Star level talent with Paul George, James Harden, Russell Westbrook along with Leonard and it wouldn’t surprise us to see them in the Finals. The Clippers ranked 4th in Offensive Efficiency this season but were 16th defensively.
Our Money is on the favorite…BOSTON CELTICS *We had Boston prior to the start of the season at +380*
Everyone talks about a “Big 3” when it comes to NBA Super Teams, but you could argue that the Celtics have a “Big 5” with a starting lineup that includes: Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Kristaps Porzingis, Jrue Holiday and Derrick White. Let’s not forget to mention the Celtics bench with Sam Hauser, Al Horford, Luke Kornet and Payton Pritchard, just to name a few, who helped Boston have the best bench Net Rating in the NBA at +6.2.
As we previously mentioned, the Celtics had the best record in the NBA against the top 16 teams in the league this season at 27-14. They ranked 1st in OEFF and 3rd defensively. The Celtics had the best average Margin of Victory per game at +11.3 overall. Boston won at home by an average of +15.2PPG and had a road average differential of +7.5PPG, all best MOV’s in the league. The Celtics have the advantage of home court throughout the Playoffs where they were near unbeatable. They were 20-4 SU versus other playoff teams on their floor this season. Boston may not have to face either Joel Embiid or Giannis Antetokounmpo in the Eastern Conference Finals, and even though the Knicks qualify for an Efficiency Championship, we don’t think they are deep enough to beat the Celtics in a 7-game series.
Overall, this shapes up to be one of the best NBA playoffs in a long time and we can’t wait! Best of luck with all your wagers.
NFL FREE BET – #109 ASA FREE PLAY ON Arizona Cardinals -4 over Carolina Panthers, Sunday at 1 PM ET Carolina had played a few decent games in a row and had a chance to prove themselves last week as a small favorite vs a bad Dallas team playing their back up QB. That didn’t… Read more: NFL free bet Sunday | Cardinals vs Panthers Prediction | 12-22-24
ASA NBA play on Brooklyn Nets -2.5 vs. Utah Jazz, 7 :40PM ET We are going to try and beat the Jazz again tonight when they travel to Brooklyn to face the Nets. Utah is clearly one of the worst teams in the NBA this season and we are betting they don’t win two games in… Read more: NBA Free Bet | Jazz vs Nets Prediction | December 21st 2024
ASA NBA PLAYER PROP UNDER 11.5 REBOUND GIANNIS ANTETOKOUNMPO – MILWAUKEE BUCKS Giannis just went over his rebounding prop against the Hawks in Emirates Cup play the other nightwith 14 but Atlanta allows the most rebounds to Power Forwards in the NBA 15.4 per game. Giannis has only been over this total 2 times in… Read more: NBA player prop bets | December 17th 2024 | Emirates Cup Final
#469/470 ASA PLAY ON Under 43 Points – Pittsburgh Steelers vs Philadelphia Eagles, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET Two high level defenses rule the day here. The Eagles lead the NFL allowing only 4.7 YPP and since their bye in week 5, they have allowed only 1.29 points per drive which is tops in the… Read more: NFL FREE BET | Steelers vs Eagles Prediction | Dec 15 2024
ASA Free NBA play on Over 233.5 Phoenix Suns at Utah Jazz – Friday 9:40PM ET When these two teams have gotten together, they have scored 230+ points in 5 straight games dating back to the start of last season, including a 232 total earlier this season. The Suns just faced two top 11 defenses… Read more: NBA FREE BET | Suns vs Jazz prediction | Dec 13 2024