Tag: NBA free bet

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NBA Playoff Free Bet | May 10th 2024 | Nuggets vs Wolves

ASA NBA free play Minnesota Timberwolves ML -185 vs Denver Nuggets, 9:30PM ET

I’m going to trust my eyes in this one and think the T’Wolves are the better team right now and the Nuggets don’t have the depth to compete here.

LACK OF DEPTH

The Nuggets won last year’s Championship but had depth with Bruce Brown and Jeff Green providing big minutes off the bench. They don’t have that option this year and Jamal Murray clearly isn’t 100% healthy.

JOKER

Everything starts with Jokic on the offensive end of the court for Denver and….

Minnesota has three Bigs (Towns, Gobert and Reid) to throw at Jokic and wear him down.

BREAKING DOWN GAMES 1 & 2

In Game 1 the Nuggets shot 47% overall and 42% and still only managed 99-points. In Game 2 the Wolves defense was smothering (without Gobert) and they held the Nuggets to 35% overall and 30% from Deep and allowed just 80-points.

POSTSEASON

Minnesota currently has the 4th best Defensive Net Rating in the postseason and the 2nd best Offensive Net Rating. In comparison, the Nuggets rank 8th in DNR, 12th in Offensive Net Rating.

SEASONAL

Surprisingly, Denver has not been great off a loss this season with a 13-14 ATS record.

Minnesota is 32-11 SU on their home court this season and have the 4th best average Margin of Victory at +8.7PPG.

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NBA Playoffs Free Bet | May 7th 2024

ASA free NBA Playoffs bet UNDER 112 1ST HALF POINTS – Mavericks at Thunder, 9:30PM ET

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Both teams have favored the Under in the 1st halves of games in the Playoffs with Dallas staying Under in 4 of six games against the Clippers, the Thunder played Under in 3 of four vs. the Pelicans.

We can throw out the regular season 1st half totals between these two teams based on injuries and situations. The Mavericks defense has been significantly better down the stretch of the regular season and were much better against the Clippers.

Dallas has a defensive Net rating of 109.5 in the post season which is the 6th best number in the league. The team that has the best defensive Net rating in the Playoffs is OKC at 93.5. The Thunder held the Pelicans to 92, 92, 85 and 89 points in the opening round series.

Dallas is also the 4th slowest paced team in the playoffs at 92 possessions per game. Granted, the Thunder are the 2nd fastest at 95.88 but that number is considerably lower than their regular season possessions per game of 100.5. The value lies with an Under bet in the 1st half of this Game 1.  

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NBA FREE BET | 76ers vs Knicks | April 20, 2024

ASA FREE play on: NY Knicks ML (-140) vs. Philadelphia 76ers, 6PM ET

The 76ers with Joel Embiid barely survived against the Heat in the Play-In game and if it weren’t for a 3-point barrage by Batum (6) they wouldn’t be here right now.

Embiid did not look good and is clearly out of shape after the long layoff from his injury. The Knicks also have the perfect team to attack Embiid who plays drop cover defensively in the pick-n-rolls as they can space the floor with effective shooters.  

The home crowd will be a big factor today as the Knicks are 27-14 SU at home this season with an average +/- of +5.9PPG. Home teams in G1 are on a 55-25 SU run in the first round of the playoffs. Much has been said about the Knicks missing Julius Randall, but we don’t feel it’s a huge factor as they have two big bodies in Hartenstein and Robinson to wear down Embiid.

Another big key for New York is that they have OG Anunoby back on the court. The Knicks are 20-3 SU with Anunoby in the lineup this season. NY is 7th in offensive efficiency compared to the 76ers who sit 13th. In terms of defensive efficiency, the Knicks hold an advantage there too ranking 9th versus 11th. New York won 3 of four against the Sixers this season and we expect them to win Game 1 on Saturday.

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NBA Free Player Prop Bet | Friday, April 19th

ASA’s NBA FREE PLAYER PROP BET – OVER 23.5 POINTS CJ MCCOLLUM – Pelicans

CJ McCollum is coming off a horrendous shooting game versus the Lakers going 4 of 15 from the field. It wasn’t an issue throughout the game as his teammate Zion Williamson was scoring at will with 40-points prior to getting hurt. CJ will have to step up here against a Kings defense that ranks 21st in opponents FG% and 28th in opponents 3PT%. McCollum has scored more than his prop total in 7 of his last eight games and is inline for a big bounce back game here with Williamson on the shelf. 

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NBA Free Prediction | Celtics vs Hawks | 3-25-24

ASA free NBA bet on: BOSTON CELTICS -7 1ST HALF vs ATLANTA HAWKS – 7PM ET

If you have been betting the Celtics in the 1st half this this you have basically been printing money. Boston is 52-18 ATS in the first halves of games this season

The Cetlics Average Point Differential in the 1st half is best in the NBA at +8.2PPG overall & +7.4PPG on the road.

The Hawks are decimated with injuries right now with starters Trae Young (26.4PPG) and Jalen Johnson (16.1PPG) out here.

Atlanta’s average +/- in the first half ithis season s +1.4PPG.

In two meetings this season the Celtics have led by 4-points (ATL had both Young and Johnson in the lineup) and 13 points (no Johnson) versus the Hawks at the break.

You may want to consider OVER 116 in the 1st half of this game also as a NBA bet. In two meetings they scored 138 and 125 total points and both average more than this number for the season with games involving the Celtics averaging 118.4PPG in the 1st H and games involving the Hawks average 119.4PPG.

ASA’s NBA Free prediction – BOSTON CELTICS (-7) 1st Half / BOSTON/ATLANTA OVER 116 TOTAL POINTS FIRST HALF

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