Tag: MLB picks

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MLB free bet | Sept 8th | Nelly Sports

MLB free bet from Nelly Sports – Friday #953/954 UNDER 10.5 St. Louis Cardinals/Cincinnati Reds 6:40 PM ET

Even in a lost season the Cardinals are still playing hard, taking two of three with Atlanta this week while 5-3 in the past eight games. St. Louis has experienced a recent uptick in production at the plate, scoring five or more runs in seven of those eight games but the Cardinals also scored a total of four runs in four games just prior to that. On the season St. Louis has a .735 team OPS vs. left-handers for a significant decline compared to pairings vs. right-handers and over the past 10 games the Cardinals have averaged just 4.0 runs per nine vs. southpaw pitching, batting .229. Andrew Abbott poses a difficult matchup for St. Louis as the rookie left-hander has excellent numbers in 17 starts as just a 24-year old, drafted in the 2nd round in 2021. Abbott had incredible strikeout numbers in the minors and has delivered a 9.9 K/9 in his 95 MLB innings with a 3.22 ERA. Drew Rom is only 23 years old and his ascension to the MLB level has not produced as strong of results, though he has only made three starts. His ERA is 7.24 to boost tonight’s total but his FIP is nearly two runs lower and he has made two adequate starts since an ugly MLB debut in which he allowed eight runs while getting 11 outs. Rom had a 10.5 K/9 in AAA with the Orioles before being dealt to St. Louis and in two starts at AAA for the Cardinals he had a 14.7 K/9 and an 0.82 ERA as he earned an opportunity and could start to put things together. While the Reds have decent numbers vs. left-handers for the season, they have hit just .203 with 1.1 runs per nine in the past 10 games vs. lefties and Cincinnati has been held to four or fewer runs in seven of the past 10 games overall. Neither bullpen has been in ideal form of late, but the Reds did have an off day Thursday while the Cardinals managed to use only two relievers for short outings last night. St. Louis lost 8-5 yesterday after winning two games in Atlanta but there were only 18 hits in the game and the Cardinals hit .429 with runners in scoring position, scoring five runs in a game they had just one extra-base hit in. 16 of the past 20 Cincinnati home games have featured 10 or fewer runs despite a high scoring reputation for the ballpark and the recent elevated scoring trends for both teams. 

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MLB Future Bets – 2023

ASA MLB Future Bets for 2023

How about we wet your appetite for the upcoming MLB season with a few future predictions. After running our algorithm’s through our computer projections we have come up with the following MLB predictions for the 2023 season.

World Series Winner 

  • AL Champs – Houston Astros +$280
  • NL Champs – Philadelphia Phillies +$750
  • World Series Champ – Philadelphia Phillies +$1500

Over-Under Winners for each division

  • NL West – Over 74.5 Arizona Diamondbacks
  • NL East – Over 74.5 Miami Marlins
  • NL Central – Over 67.5 Pittsburgh Pirates
  • AL Central – Under 83.5 Chicago White Sox
  • AL West – Over 59.5 Oakland A’s
  • AL East – Over 78.5 Boston Red Sox

MVP Winner (1 favorite, 1 longshot)

  • AL MVP Favorite – Shohei Ohtani +$220
  • AL MVP Longshot – Corey Seager +$4000
  • NL MVP Favorite – Trae Turner +$1100
  • NL MVP Longshot – Kyle Schwarber +$3500

CY Young (1 favorite, 1 longshot)

American League

  • AL CY Young Favorite – Jacob deGrom – +$550
  • AL CY Longshot – Christian Javier – +$2000
  • NL Cy Young Favorite – Spencer Strider +$1000
  • NL CY Young Longshot – Julio Urias – +$2000

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ASA Sports Betting MLB free bet – Player Prop

ASA play on: OVER 6.5 STRIKEOUTS: Luis Castillo – Seattle Mariners @ LA Angels, 9:30PM ET

This is one of the bigger strikeout numbers on the sports bettting board today, but every sports bettor will be playing Over 6.5 with Castillo. He has the 8th highest K/rate on the board today of all starts at 9.48 per 9/innings. Castillo has 105 strikeouts in 99.7 innings of work this season and has 6 or more K’s in 9 straight games, 7 or more in five straight. He is facing an Angels team that strikes out more than every other team in the Bigs at 9.57 per 9/innings. L.A. struggles against any type of pitchers but against right-handers they’ve struck out an average of 6.9 per 9/innings or once every 3.37 at bats. Overall, in their last 13 games the Angels are hitting just .216 as a team with 116 K’s in 436 at bats. Castillo averages 6.23 innings pitched per start and if he gets to that number today, he should easily have 8 or more K’s.

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