Tag: MLB free bet

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MLB Free bet | Nelly Sportsline | Aug 15th

Free pick – #969 Philadelphia Phillies (Wheeler) -110 over Toronto Blue Jays (Kikuchi) 6:07 PM CT

Enjoy this MLB free bet from Nelly today. The lack of production over the weekend for Philadelphia was shocking, scoring just one run Saturday and Sunday in losses at home following a run of ten straight games with at least four runs. The Phillies have still averaged 5.6 runs per game in August while +23 in scoring as this is an elite NL contender that has a chance to repeat as NL champions, even if will again have to come through a wild card path. Philadelphia is 40-22 since June 3 and Zack Wheeler remains one of the best pitchers in the NL. His FIP of 3.06 is the fourth best in all of MLB among qualified starters even if he isn’t getting much attention in the Cy Young race, after finishing second in 2021 for the award. Yusei Kikuchi is having his best MLB season, but his FIP is 4.52 compared to his 3.53 ERA as a lot has gone right. His home run rate remains very high and while his run of starts since the All-Star break has been excellent, it seems like a significant outlier stretch against his career numbers. The Blue Jays do have excellent relief pitching numbers in recent weeks, but the unit was taxed over the weekend getting only one start of six innings over the past four games. In the past 10 games Philadelphia has averaged 7.8 runs per nine while batting .277 vs. left-handers, while posting a 21-16 record on the season vs. left-handed starters as this should be a favorable matchup for the Phillies to deliver, after being shutdown by quality right-handers over the weekend. The Blue Jays are just 34-42 vs. winning teams this season as Toronto hasn’t looked like the serious contender most expected to see this season. 

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MLB free pick | Cubs vs. Guardians | June 30th

ASA has a MLB FREE BET for you today in baseball

ASA Free Play ON Chicago Cubs -1.5 (+105) over Cleveland Guardians @ 2:20 ET – We were a dealt a tough loss with our premium pick yesterday when Cleveland, known for strong bullpen, blew a late 2-0 lead and lost in extra innings at Kansas City despite a huge 13-6 edge in hits in the game. That is a tough defeat for a team to bounce back from and now the Guardians are at Chicago a for a day game after that heart-breaking loss. The Cubs should roll here as the pitching edge of Steele (8-2, 2.62 ERA) over Quantrill (2-4, 5.61 ERA) also gives them a big edge here. Look for the home team to win big as the Cubs have seen 30 of their 37 wins this season come by at least a 2-run margin and this one should be no different. FREE PLAY on Chicago Cubs -1.5 (+105)

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MLB free wager | Rangers vs. Tigers | June 29th

ASA Free Play ON Texas Rangers Money Line -160 over Detroit Tigers @ 2:05 ET -Taking pitchers out of the equation, since one could argue a case for either starting pitcher here, note the difference in the teams here as well as the home field edge for Texas which is why there is really a strong argument for the favorite in this one. The Rangers are at home where they are 26-14 plus they have gone 29-11 this season when facing teams that do not have a winning record on the season. The Tigers are 16-24 in road games this season and Detroit is 11-25 against teams with a winning record this season.  Given these numbers you can see why laying the price with the Rangers at home is absolutely worth a look in this one as the odds in favor of the road team make the price a bargain even in the -160 range on this one.  Texas is the play here. 

 

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MLB free bet | Giants vs. Blue Jays | June 27th

#919/920 ASA FREE PLAY ON Under 8.5 Runs – San Francisco Giants @ Toronto Blue Jays, Tuesday at 7 PM ET – This looks like a pitchers duel with Gausman expected to get the start for the Blue Jays and Walker (1.89 ERA) for the Giants. San Francisco has allowed an average of only 3 runs in last 13 road games. Toronto has allowed an average of only 3.6 runs in last 9 home games. We are looking for, at most, a 4-3 type battle here. We see some sharper books, in early market activity, have already dropped this total to an 8 and no matter how this total moves throughout the day, this is absolutely a sign that some sharper groups are also expecting a low-scoring battle here just like we are. We are going with the Under in this one.

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MLB Free bet – ASA – June 23rd

ASA FREE PLAY ON Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 on the Run Line (-125) over Kansas City Royals, Friday at 6:40 PM ET – We lost with this play as a premium play yesterday but will come right back with it here in this spot on Friday. The Royals, despite yesterday’s upset win, are having a very rough season and have lost 54 of 75 games this season and that includes having lost 32 of 41 games against teams with a winning record!  Here they are matched up with one of the best teams in MLB and the Rays have been particularly tough at home where they have won 32 of 41 games.  So here you have a 79% play on situation versus a 79% play against situation. Nice odds but that is based on wins and losses.  What about wins and losses by 2+ runs?  Well, the key here is that Tampa Bay has seen 75% of their wins (39 of 52) come by at least a 2-run margin.  The Royals have seen 83% of their losses (45 of 54) come by at least at 2-run margin.  Look for a big blowout here as this is a mismatch and that is before even talking about the pitchers.  This is a case of hot versus not and now, how about those pitchers?  The Rays are expected to start Eflin here and he is 8-3 with a 3.26 ERA this season. The Royals have Zack Greinke likely to get the start and he is 1-7 with a 4.81 ERA this season and known for struggling on the road more than at home in recent seasons. We think we’re getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one at a -125 price with the Rays. Lay the 1.5 runs here!