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MLB free bet | Sept 8th | Nelly Sports

MLB free bet from Nelly Sports – Friday #953/954 UNDER 10.5 St. Louis Cardinals/Cincinnati Reds 6:40 PM ET

Even in a lost season the Cardinals are still playing hard, taking two of three with Atlanta this week while 5-3 in the past eight games. St. Louis has experienced a recent uptick in production at the plate, scoring five or more runs in seven of those eight games but the Cardinals also scored a total of four runs in four games just prior to that. On the season St. Louis has a .735 team OPS vs. left-handers for a significant decline compared to pairings vs. right-handers and over the past 10 games the Cardinals have averaged just 4.0 runs per nine vs. southpaw pitching, batting .229. Andrew Abbott poses a difficult matchup for St. Louis as the rookie left-hander has excellent numbers in 17 starts as just a 24-year old, drafted in the 2nd round in 2021. Abbott had incredible strikeout numbers in the minors and has delivered a 9.9 K/9 in his 95 MLB innings with a 3.22 ERA. Drew Rom is only 23 years old and his ascension to the MLB level has not produced as strong of results, though he has only made three starts. His ERA is 7.24 to boost tonight’s total but his FIP is nearly two runs lower and he has made two adequate starts since an ugly MLB debut in which he allowed eight runs while getting 11 outs. Rom had a 10.5 K/9 in AAA with the Orioles before being dealt to St. Louis and in two starts at AAA for the Cardinals he had a 14.7 K/9 and an 0.82 ERA as he earned an opportunity and could start to put things together. While the Reds have decent numbers vs. left-handers for the season, they have hit just .203 with 1.1 runs per nine in the past 10 games vs. lefties and Cincinnati has been held to four or fewer runs in seven of the past 10 games overall. Neither bullpen has been in ideal form of late, but the Reds did have an off day Thursday while the Cardinals managed to use only two relievers for short outings last night. St. Louis lost 8-5 yesterday after winning two games in Atlanta but there were only 18 hits in the game and the Cardinals hit .429 with runners in scoring position, scoring five runs in a game they had just one extra-base hit in. 16 of the past 20 Cincinnati home games have featured 10 or fewer runs despite a high scoring reputation for the ballpark and the recent elevated scoring trends for both teams. 

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MLB Free bet | Nelly Sportsline | Aug 15th

Free pick – #969 Philadelphia Phillies (Wheeler) -110 over Toronto Blue Jays (Kikuchi) 6:07 PM CT

Enjoy this MLB free bet from Nelly today. The lack of production over the weekend for Philadelphia was shocking, scoring just one run Saturday and Sunday in losses at home following a run of ten straight games with at least four runs. The Phillies have still averaged 5.6 runs per game in August while +23 in scoring as this is an elite NL contender that has a chance to repeat as NL champions, even if will again have to come through a wild card path. Philadelphia is 40-22 since June 3 and Zack Wheeler remains one of the best pitchers in the NL. His FIP of 3.06 is the fourth best in all of MLB among qualified starters even if he isn’t getting much attention in the Cy Young race, after finishing second in 2021 for the award. Yusei Kikuchi is having his best MLB season, but his FIP is 4.52 compared to his 3.53 ERA as a lot has gone right. His home run rate remains very high and while his run of starts since the All-Star break has been excellent, it seems like a significant outlier stretch against his career numbers. The Blue Jays do have excellent relief pitching numbers in recent weeks, but the unit was taxed over the weekend getting only one start of six innings over the past four games. In the past 10 games Philadelphia has averaged 7.8 runs per nine while batting .277 vs. left-handers, while posting a 21-16 record on the season vs. left-handed starters as this should be a favorable matchup for the Phillies to deliver, after being shutdown by quality right-handers over the weekend. The Blue Jays are just 34-42 vs. winning teams this season as Toronto hasn’t looked like the serious contender most expected to see this season. 

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ASA (ASAwins)

ASAwinslogoThe owners of American Sports Analysts (ASAwin or ASA), Lee Kostroski & Mike Merlet, have a combined 55+ years in the sports betting industry. Both started with Doc’s Enterprises, Lee in the late 80’s and Mike in the early 90’s. After learning the handicapping trade from one of the oldest in the business, they started ASA Inc in 1997 and have been going strong ever since. They have been known throughout the industry for their success on BIG GAMES including their 10* Midwest Game of the Year. They have posted a winning record on Top Games in 18 of their 25 football seasons giving them the much-earned reputation as the top BIG GAME HANDICAPPERS in the country. ASA is located in Madison, WI and a foundation of their handicapping prowess revolves around the heart of the country – especially the Big Ten.

ASAwins has appeared on numerous radio shows throughout the country as special expert football guests including Tampa, New Orleans, Madison, Milwaukee, Memphis, Las Vegas, and Denver just to name a few. They were also featured on the ESPN website with gaming writer Chad Millman during the 2011 season.

ASAwins handicapping methods have evolved through years of with hard work and research being the anchor of their success. Rather than implementing one specific strategy as many handicappers do, they intertwine many different philosophies when it comes to making football, basketball, hockey, and baseball selections. They utilize their massive database that goes back over 30 years and can give them in depth information on any situation you can think of when it comes to handicapping. That’s not where they stop, however. They also research stats and film each week to evaluate the upcoming match ups on the field along with speaking with their personal contacts throughout the country (especially in the Midwest). On top of that, they analyze each pointspread (and their movements) comparing them with their own power ratings to find where an edge might be found. Lastly, their predictive analytics or math models predict the outcomes of games based solely on numbers and statistics that aren’t swayed by the human element. So, as you can see, just because a game may fall into a successful system or the scheduling looks good to go against or with a certain team, that doesn’t mean that ASA automatically uses it as a selection. It must go through their in-depth process with all things considered before they give it the ASA stamp of approval. Looking at games from all these angles gives ASA the best of all worlds when it comes to handicapping. Their handicapping theories have proven successful over the years which has them as one of the more tenured experts in the industry.

Lee & Mike at ASAwins have stood the test of time in an industry that makes it very tough to do so. Their 50+ years of experience will give you the WINNING EDGE you need. Sports wagering is an investment and it’s time you invest in the known commodity of ASAwins!

Contact us directly at mike@asawins.com or lee@asawins.com

Or call 1.888.272.1098

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