Tag: Minnesota Timberwolves

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NBA prediction | Timberwolves vs Lakers | Series Prediction

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NBA prediction: Minnesota Timberwolves (+175) to Win Series vs. LA Lakers: Betting Prediction

The Minnesota Timberwolves at +175 offer compelling value to win their first-round playoff series against the LA Lakers. Statistical trends and recent performance strongly favor the Wolves, despite their underdog status.

Statistical Support for the Timberwolves

  • Recent Form: Since January 6, 2025, the Wolves have been one of the NBA’s elite, posting a 32-16 record. Over their last 15 games, they’re 11-4 straight-up (SU) with a +9.8 Net Rating (4th in the NBA), showcasing their ability to dominate on both ends. In contrast, the Lakers are 8-7 SU in their last 15, with a -0.7 Net Rating, indicating inconsistency.
  • Offensive Efficiency: Minnesota boasts one of the NBA’s most efficient offense (6th) at 116.6 points per possession (PPP), outpacing the Lakers’ 115.9 PPP (12th). The Wolves’ attack, led by Anthony Edwards 27.6ppg, has the 3rd best Offensive Net rating over the past 5 games.
  • Defensive Prowess: The Wolves rank 6th in Defensive Efficiency, allowing 111.5 PPP, compared to the Lakers’ 114.7 PPP (15th). Minnesota’s length and versatility, anchored by Rudy Gobert, disrupts opponents’ rhythm, particularly in the paint.
  • Road Performance: The Wolves excelled away from home this season, going 24-17 with a +2.9 points per game (PPG) differential. This is critical in a playoff series where stealing road games is key. The Lakers, however, struggled on the road, posting a 19-22 SU record with a -2.4 PPG differential, a below average MOV in the league.

Minnesota’s superior efficiency on both offense and defense gives them an edge in a seven-game series. Their road resilience (24-17, +2.9 PPG) mitigates the Lakers’ home-court advantage, especially given LA’s poor road record (19-22, -2.4 PPG). The Wolves’ recent dominance (32-16 since January, 11-4 in last 15) contrasts with the Lakers’ mediocrity (8-7, negative Net Rating). Minnesota’s ability to control pace and defend the interior should neutralize LeBron James and Luka Doncic, while their top-ranked offense exploits LA’s middling defense.

Potential Concerns The Lakers’ star power (LeBron and Luka) can swing games, and their home court could pose challenges. However, LA’s road struggles and inconsistent supporting cast limit their upside against a deep, disciplined Wolves squad.

Prediction The Timberwolves’ statistical advantages—elite offensive and defensive efficiency, strong road performance, and recent form—make them the likely series winner. At +175, the betting value is undeniable for a team that matches up well and has been trending upward.

Pick: Timberwolves (+175) to win the series in 6 or 7 games.

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NBA Player Prop – Dennis Schroder – Toronto Raptors

ASA NBA PLAYER PROP – OVER 16.5 POINTS+ASSIST – Dennis Schroder – Toronto Raptors

The Raptors host the Minnesota Timberwolves tonight and we expect a big game from the Raptors’ new starting PG Dennis Schroder. Toronto brought in the veteran Schroder to shore up their backcourt after losing Fred VanVleet in the offseason. He is inline for a big game tonight at home against a porous T-Wolves defense that was 20th overall in defensive efficiency ratings. Defending point guards was especially problematic for the Wolves as they were 3rd worst in the league a year ago in that department. Last year as a Lakers, Schroder totaled 18 and 17 points+assists in two games against the T-Wolves and one of those games was as a reserve in just 22 minutes of play. Last season Schroder averaged 17.1 points+assists per game, and as we mentioned those numbers come with him not being a full-time starter. In the Raptors last two preseason games he had 19 and 19 Pts+Ass in 23 and 28 minutes. In this home opener we expect Schroder to really focus on getting all of his teammates involved which will lead to a big assists number and the points are an added bonus. NBA player prop Over Points + Assists Dennis Schroder.

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