Tag: Free NBA picks

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NBA free bet | Suns vs Warriors Prediction | December 28th 2024

ASA’s NBA free bet on UNDER 219.5 Phoenix Suns at Golden State Warriors, 8:30PM ET

Both teams are coming off a game last night and playing their 4th game in 6 days so fatigue is going to be a factor. Golden State has turned into a solid Under team with 14 of their last eighteen games staying below the number.

Looking at their most recent 15 games we find they are the 27th lowest scoring team in the NBA over that stretch averaging just 105.1ppg.

Phoenix has now stayed Under in 5 of their last six games and scored 90 or less in two of those games.

Over each teams last five games the Suns have played at the 3rd slowest tempo in the league, the Warriors 14th slowest.

These same two teams met on November 30th and combined to score 218 total points. With how the betting markets are reacting to this O/U it’s obvious that sharp money is on the Under. We agree.

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NBA Cup Finals Preview | Thunder vs Bucks | Dec 17th 2024

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Oklahoma City Thunder vs Milwaukee Bucks: Betting Preview for the Emirates Cup Final

Game Overview: Tonight, the much-anticipated Emirates Cup final pits the Oklahoma City Thunder against the Milwaukee Bucks at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. Both teams have showcased their prowess throughout the tournament, with the Thunder leading the Western Conference and the Bucks holding a strong position in the East.

Team Form and Player Performance:

  • Oklahoma City Thunder: The Thunder has been on a roll with a 20-5 record, showcasing an elite defense that ranks first in the league, allowing just 103.5 points per game. Their recent form includes a five-game winning streak, with their latest triumph over the Houston Rockets in the semifinals, where Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led with 32 points. Jalen Williams has been a key contributor, averaging 21.7 points per game, and the team’s depth with players like Isaiah Hartenstein has been crucial.
  • Milwaukee Bucks: The Bucks have a record of 14-11 but have been resurgent of late with a 12-3 run. Giannis Antetokounmpo has been pivotal, with performances like 32 points, 14 rebounds, and 9 assists in the semifinal against Atlanta. The Bucks are known for their three-point shooting, leading the league at 38.9%. However, their rebounding could be a concern against OKC’s tough interior defense.

Key Matchups:

  • Giannis Antetokounmpo vs. OKC’s Defense: Giannis’s rebounding and scoring ability will be tested against OKC’s league-leading defense. His recent form and the Bucks’ reliance on his performance make him a focal point for any betting considerations.
  • Shai Gilgeous-Alexander vs. Bucks’ Perimeter Defense: SGA’s scoring and rebounding capabilities could challenge Milwaukee’s guards. His consistency, having scored 25+ points in 21 of 25 games this season, suggests he’ll be a significant factor in the game’s outcome.

Betting Angles:

  • Spread: OKC is favored by 4.5 points.
  • Over/Under: The total points line might hover around 223.5.

Conclusion:

This final could be a defensive showdown with moments of offensive brilliance. The Thunder’s defense might be the deciding factor, but the Bucks’ experience and shooting could keep them in the game.

Remember, betting outcomes can be volatile, and while this preview provides insights based on current form and statistics, always bet responsibly.

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NBA player prop bets | December 17th 2024 | Emirates Cup Final

ASA NBA PLAYER PROP UNDER 11.5 REBOUND GIANNIS ANTETOKOUNMPO – MILWAUKEE BUCKS

Giannis just went over his rebounding prop against the Hawks in Emirates Cup play the other nightwith 14 but Atlanta allows the most rebounds to Power Forwards in the NBA 15.4 per game. Giannis has only been over this total 2 times in his last 10 games and OKC allows the 4th fewest rebounds per game to PF this season at 8.2. NBA player prop bet – UNDER 11.5 REBOUNDS Giannis Antetokounmpo.

ASA NBA PLAYER PROP OVER 6.5 POINTS AJ GREEN – MILWAUKEE BUCKS

Green is averaging 8.3PPG in his last ten games and is playing an average of 24 ½ minutes per game over that same 10 game period. He has scored 6 or more points in 9 straight games. He is shooting 45.2% from Deep and with Giannis, Lillard and Middleton getting all of the Thunders defensive attention he should get 6+ field goal attempts up in this one. You may want to consider Over 1.5 made 3-pointers but will have to lay high juice at -155.

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NBA Predictions Future Bets | Western Conference | 2025

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NBA Predictions – WESTERN CONFERENCE OVER/UNDER WIN TOTALS

OVER 49.5 DALLAS MAVERICKS – Dallas won 50 games a year ago and finished the season 10th in Offensive Efficiency, 13th in DEFF. The Mavs should be better this season with a full season of PJ Washington on the roster after coming over from Charlotte at the trade deadline. With Washington in the lineup the Mavs finished the regular season on a 20-9 run.

Dallas also got great play from Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively at the Center position who combined for an average of 10PPG and 6.9 RPG.

They added depth with Spencer Dinwiddie and Klay Thompson. Both of those players are more than capable of putting up big offensive numbers, especially Klay who has a career average of 19.6PPG and he made 3.5 3-pointers last season, 5th in the NBA.

Let’s not forget, the Mavs have one of the most dynamic backcourts with Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving. Doncic led the league in scoring last season at 33.9PPG and was 2nd in assists at 9.8 per game. Kyrie made 3.0 3-pointers per game last season and hit over 41% from Deep. This is a deep roster and very capable of winning 50+ even if they sustain an injury or two.

UNDER 47.5 MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES – The Grizzlies won just 27-games a year ago but played 73-games without Ja Morant. Morant is back this season but this roster is not good enough to get to 48-wins.

Memphis was 30th in Offensive Efficiency rating, 12th Defensively. The starting lineup looks like Morant, Marcus Smart, Desmond Bane, Jaren Jackson Jr and rookie Zach Edey.

Smart played in just 20-games last season and is clearly not the player he once was after 10 seasons in the league. Desmond Bane is a solid #2 but should see a decline in his usage with Morant back in the lineup. Jaren Jackson Jr has been limited to 63 and 66 games the past two season and clearly has injury concerns.

One big concern for Memphis is their rebounding as they ranked 25th in Rebound Rate a year ago. Will rookie Zach Edey help in that category? Two years ago this team had a much better roster and they won 51-games to finish second in the West, this roster isn’t going to get to 48.

OVER 47.5 PHOENIX SUNS – The Suns have the luxury of having three guys on their roster that can literally go for 40-points on any given night.

Kevin Durant is still a premier scorer in this league and is coming off a 27.1ppg season. Durant remained healthy for most of the season, playing in 75-games. The second option, or first for that matter is Devin Booker who also scored 27.1ppg last year and averaged a career high in assists at 6.9 per game. Bradley Beal played in 53 games last season, shot 43% from beyond the arc and scored 18.2ppg.

If we look at Efficiency ratings this team was 9th in OEFF, 14th in DEFF with the 11th best Efficiency Differential.

The Suns got better in the offseason with the addition of Tyus Jones and they still have depth with Grayson Allen, and Royce O’Neal off the bench.

The Suns were a top 10 team in Rebound Rate and Effective Field goal percentage.  Phoenix won 49 games a year ago and should get to that number again in 2025.

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NBA Free Bet Today | Knicks vs Celtics Prediction | Oct 22 2024

ASA NBA Free Bet on UNDER 222.5 NY Knicks at Boston Celtics, 7:30PM ET

Last year these two teams opened the season off with an Under and 212 total points on opening night. That really doesn’t have anything to do with tonight’s wager, but here’s what does.

These two teams were both top 11 in defensive efficiency with the Celtics 3rd, allowing 1.078-points per possession, the Knicks ranked 11th at 1.104PP allowed. The other key factor here is pace of play. The Knicks were the slowest paced team in the league last season at 95.2 possessions per game. Contrary to what you might think, the Celtics were also slower paced at 97.1 possessions per game which ranked 7th slowest.

If the preseason is any indication of what New York plans to do this season we can expect great defense tonight. The Knicks held 4 of five opponents to 110 or less points in the preseason. The Celtics also showed their defensive prowess in the exhibition season allowing 111 or less in 4 of five games.

With the Celtics coming off a Championship they may be slow to start tonight. The Knicks have several new pieces and it could take time for the starters to jell. In this opening night game we like UNDER the total.

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