Tag: Denver Nuggets

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NBA Future Bets – 2023-24 – By ASA

NBA Future Bets – Oct 23rd

If you’re looking for a few NBA Over-Under wagers or Future bets for the upcoming season, you’ve come to the right place.

ASA is coming off a banner season in the NBA, one of their best in 30+ years and have already been hard at work assessing all of the NBA’s rosters/teams in anticipation of the season.

Here are the bets we’ve already made and the best options for your future options.

L.A. CLIPPERS OVER 46.5 WINS

This roster is largely intact from a year ago and will hopefully benefit from having Kawhi Leonard for more than the 52 games he played a year ago. Of course, that’s also a risk as Leonard has been injury prone, but when he’s healthy he is still one of the 10 best players in the league. The Clippers defensive efficiency numbers slipped last season but expect them to get back to their numbers of previous season when they lived in the top 10 in that category. In fact, the Clippers ranked top 10 in DEFF in 2020, 21 and 2022. Last year the Clippers finished 12th in offensive efficiency after finishing in the top 5 in two of the three previous seasons. Los Angeles won 44 games a year ago and had a positive +/- of +0.1PPG. The value in the number is our driving factor in this wager as the Oddmakers posted a total win number of 52.5 last season on this same roster. The Clippers had one of the worst records in the NBA in games decided by 5-points or less at 8-38 so expect a few more wins in close games and an easy Over ticket winner.

DENVER NUGGETS UNDER 52.5 WINS

The World Champs should see a regression in their win total for several factors including the fact they will have a target on their backs every night out. Secondly, the Nuggets suffered a few key losses in Bruce Brown and Jeff Green who were instrumental in their Championship run. Last season the Nuggets won 53 games in the regular season and had an average Margin of Victory of +3.2PPG which was 6th best in the league. Denver owned the 3rd best offensive efficiency rating during the regular season and were below average in defensive efficiency allowing 1.110-points per possession ranking 17th. We expect the rest of the Northwest Division to be improved over last season which will make getting to 53 wins more difficult. Overall, the entire Western Conference is loaded from top to bottom with up to seven teams being legitimate contenders to win the Conference. We are betting on a slight regression for the Nuggets and their regular season win total.

BOSTON CELTICS OVER 54.5 WINS

This Celtics roster is better than last year’s that won 57-games with the additions of Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis. The Celtics now feature a core group of Super Stars that can sustain winning results through multiple injuries if they occur during the regular season. They also have depth with the likes of Sam Hauser, Derrick White, Al Horford and Payton Prichard. Gone from the Celtics roster are Grant Williams, Robert Williams and Marcus Smart, but the additions far outweigh the subtractions. Boston was 1st in Efficiency differential last season at +6.6, they were 2nd in offensive efficiency averaging 1.181-points per possession and 3rd defensively allowing 1.115PPP. The Celtics had the best overall Average Margin of Victory at +5.9PPG and were one of only six teams to have a positive road differential at +2.9PPG. The Eastern Conference isn’t nearly as good as the West which will make winning 55+ games a very realistic opportunity for the C’s.

GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS UNDER 48.5 WINS

The Warriors have an aging roster, and the saying Father time waits for no man applies to this team more than anyone. Golden State didn’t get any younger this season when they traded for Chris Paul and we don’t see him being a great fit in the Warriors fast paced offense. When the Warriors were winning Championships, they had one of the best defenses in the NBA. In three of the four seasons the Warriors won it all they ranked top 10 in defensive efficiency three times. Last season this group slipped to 15th in the NBA in DEFF. In our rankings, we have the Pacific Division as the best in basketball with the Suns, Clippers, Lakers, Kings and Warriors. Golden State was 13-16 SU against the Pacific last season and collectively those teams are all better this season. The Warriors really struggled on the road last regular season with an 11-30 SU away record and an average Margin of Victory of minus -5.9PPG which ranked bottom five in the league. To be a great team in the NBA you have to win on the road and the Warriors just don’t qualify as a great team anymore. Golden State won 44 games a season ago and we’ll project a .500 season at 41-41.

Good luck – ASA

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NBA predictions by ASA for 2022-23

ASA’s NBA predictions Total Win bet, Futures and NBA wagers!

NBA predictions 2022-23

By ASAwins

Let’s break down the NBA and get our Future Bets or NBA predictions made before the season tips off on Tuesday. First off, we are coming off a record-breaking NBA season a year ago with over 90-Net Units of profit for the year. Our NBA wagers were 141-95 on the year when you include the free bets we posted here, and we finished with 28-14 STREAK in the post-season.

Typically, we don’t like to tie up a lot of money with future bets and would rather invest it during the regular season, but we do make an exception on a few wagers or these NBA predictions.

EASTERN CONFERENCE TOTAL WIN BET

UNDER 53.5 BOSTON CELTICS – “The hunters become the hunted!”

Boston won 51-games in the regular season a year ago but will have a tough time getting to that number in 2022-23. We still like the Celtics to be one of the best teams in the East but after getting to the NBA Finals a year ago they will have a target on their backs and get everyone’s best game night in and night out. Not to mention, the Eastern Conference is absolutely loaded this year. The Nets are healthy and will have a full complement of players this year including Kyrie Irving, Kevin Durant and also get Joe Harris back from injury along with wild-card Ben Simmons. The Heat won 53-games last season and return their core of key personnel in Butler, Adebayo, Herro and Lowry, plus a healthy Oladipo. Milwaukee has one of the MVP favorites in Giannis Antetokounmpo and will be a contender again to win it all in 2023. Philadelphia has their own MVP candidate in Joel Embiid and James Harden. Any one of the previously mentioned teams can win the East this year. Now throw in a group of teams that will be mid-40 win teams: Raptors, Bulls, Cavaliers (added Donovan Mitchell) and you can see how tough every game in Conference play will be. Even some of the bottom teams in the East will be better than they were a season ago.

The Celtics have a fantastic core with Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Marcus Smart, Al Horford, the Williams duo and recently added Malcolm Brogdon. The bench has depth with Derrick White, Payton Pritchard and 2nd year sniper Sam Hauser. We feel it will be tough though for the Celtics to duplicate last season’s impressive efficiency stats of 1.144-points per possession scored and .966-points allowed given the circumstances.

Yes, the Celtics are a serious title contender this season, but they’ll get everyone’s best this season and will slip slightly in the win column.

WESTERN CONFERENCE TOTAL WIN BET

OVER 49 DENVER NUGGETS – “The Joker gets help!”

This NBA wager is on the Over the projected win total for the Denver Nuggets. Last season the Nuggets finished 6th in the Western Conference and did it on the back of Nikola Jokic who put up 27.1PPG, 13.8RPG and 7.9APG with a 32.94 Player Efficiency Rating (best in the NBA). This season they get All-Star level guard Jamal Murray back along with instant scorer Michael Porter Jr. They also have power forward Aaron Gordon on the roster who is coming off a solid 15PPG/5.9RPG season. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is another key addition to this roster. Denver owned the 12th best average Margin of Victory in the NBA last season at +2.5PPG. They were 6th overall in offensive efficiency, 15th in DEFF. It certainly helps when the Nuggets play in the Northwest Division with a pair of bad teams in the Thunder and Jazz who may not win 49 games combined. The Nuggets have the easiest schedule in the NBA based on our metrics which include: 7 road games playing the 2nd night of a back-to-back and 5 home games the second night of a B2B. Both of those rank top 11 fewest in the NBA. The Nuggets have enjoyed one of the best home courts in the NBA in recent years where they win 70% of their games.

If Joker does what he does, and Murray/Porter Jr. can stay healthy this team could very well come out of the Western Conference.

NBA MVP LONGSHOT

Ja Morant – Memphis Grizzlies +1400

The Grizzlies finished 56-26 SU in the regular season a year ago and finished 2nd overall in the Western Conference standings. Memphis had the 5th best offensive efficiency rating at 1.147-points per possession and were 4th in DEFF allowing 1.090PPP. They were also 4th in net scoring differential at +5.7PPG. Memphis has an MVP candidate in Ja Morant who is clearly capable of taking over games by himself after averaging 32.1-points per 36-minutes. Morant is going to have to do more this season with Jaren Jackson Jr sidelined for 4-6 months. Morant was 18th in assists per game last season at 6.7 and was 4th in rebounds per game for guards at 5.7. He gets a ton of media attention with his high-flying style of play, will be on a playoff team and could be a league leader in several different categories. Ja Morant is worth a shot at +1400.

NBA Champion – Milwaukee Bucks +800

Other NBA wagers – Division Over/Under win totals

Atlantic Under 53.5 Boston Celtics

Southeast Over 35.5 Washington Wizards

Central Over 41.5 Chicago Bulls

Northwest Over 49 Denver Nuggets

Southwest Over 48.5 Memphis Grizzlies

Pacific Under 45.5 LA Lakers

MVP Winners

Favorite – Giannis Antetokounmpo +550

Mid-Range – Ja Morant +1400

Longshot – Devin Booker +2800