NFL NOTES
NFL BREAKDOWNS UNDERDOGS & TOTAL POINTS – NFL Underdogs went 28-20 through first 3 weeks of the season. Average points scored in a game last year was 49.6 which was highest ever. This year so far it’s 46.8 per game
Turnovers’s IN NFL – Teams that win the TurnOver battle have covered the NFL spread at 75 to 80% clip historically. Last week teams that won TO battle were 10-1 ATS – so far this season teams that win TO battle are 32-4 ATS
Bears – Just 47 total yards last Sunday on 42 plays for BARELY 1.0 YPP in their 26-6 loss @ Cleveland. The exact number of 1.1 YPP was the 2nd LOWEST by any team in a game this century! Justin Fields was 6 for 20 and after sacks factored in the Bears had ONE NET YARD passing. The last 2 weeks he has completed just 13 of 33 pass attempts (39%). Since coming in for an injured Andy Dalton 2 weeks ago, Fields has led the Bears to just 122 total yards on 80 offensive snaps (1.5 YPP) and scored ZERO offensive TD’s. The offensive line hasn’t helped matters as the mobile Fields was sacked 9 times last Sunday and 11 times total in his 51 drop backs (21.5%) since coming in for Dalton vs Cincinnati. The Chicago offensive line now ranks dead last in the NFL in sack % allowed at over 15%.
Browns – The Browns could easily be 3-0 on the season after leading for a majority of the game @ KC before losing 33-29. They outgained the Chiefs 8.2 YPP to 65. YPP in that game. They have a YPP differential of +1.8 on the season (6.4 YPP offense / 4.6 YPP defense). Their last 2 games have been at home vs Houston & Chicago, 2 of the worst teams in the NFL. Now they travel to Minnesota where they are favored on the road. Since 2012 they have been a road favorite only 10 times or an average of once per season. They are 2-8 ATS in those games.
Buccaneers – Tom Brady was great in the Bucs 34-24 loss @ LA Rams last Sunday. He completed 41 of his 55 pass attempts (75%) for well over 400 yards. The problem is, Brady was the Bucs leading rusher with 14 yards! Tampa can’t run the ball. They rank 31st in the NFL averaging only 56 YPG on the ground. If you subtract Brady’s 20 yards rushing this year Tampa is only averaging 49 YPG. Their leading rusher, Leonard Fournette, has 92 yards rushing ON THE SEASON. The Bucs longest run this season is 10 yards. That’s it. They weren’t great on the ground last year but they did put up just over 100 YPG rushing which is nearly double their numbers after 3 games this year. If Tampa wants to make another “run” at the Super Bowl again this year, their rushing attack will have to get better quickly.
Steelers – The Steelers are now officially on a big time downward trajectory. After starting last season 11-0, they lost 5 of their last 6 games and they are now 1-2 this year. Their only win this year was an impressive one @ Buffalo but Pittsburgh was outgained by 120 yards in that game and benefited from a special teams TD. The defense has carried the offense since the start of last season but there are signs the stop unit might be headed in the wrong direction. After leading the NFL in sacks last year, they did not have a sack last week vs Cincinnati and Joe Burrow. Cincy’s offensive line allowed TEN sacks in their first 2 games so we’re not talking about a great pass blocking unit (29th in sack % allowed). TJ Watt’s injury doesn’t help matters. On offense they finished dead last in the NFL in rushing last year. They drafted RB Harris in the first round to help improve that and where do they sit after 3 games this year? Dead last again in rushing. Roethlisberger threw the ball 58 TIMES last week and he’s way to old and immobile to be doing that on a regular basis and have success doing so. With the Steelers offense scoring only 4 offensive TD’s in 3 games this year and the defense possibly not elite, this team is in trouble.
49ers – The Niners lost a heart break on Sunday night to the Packers as Aaron Rodgers took GB 42 yards in 37 seconds to get them in position for the game winning FG. Green Bay dominated the stats averaging 6.0 YPP while holding San Fran to only 4.6 YPP. It was the 2nd straight game the 49ers were whipped in the stat sheet. A week earlier they allowed Philadelphia to gain 6.1 YPP while averaging only 4.5 YPP themselves. The defense held the Eagles to 11 points in that game despite the fact Philly crossed midfield on 6 of their 8 possessions. There are some red flags with the SF defense. Back to back games allowing 6.0+ YPP and now they are really banged up in the defensive backfield. They lost a few more CB’s to injury last week and as of this writing they have only 4 healthy corners on the roster. One of those players is coming back from injury (Moseley) and two were not even on the active roster vs Green Bay.
Jaguars – After last week’s loss to Arizona, the Jags have now lost 18 games in a row dating back to last year’s season opener. They are 6-12 ATS in those 18 losses. The 1976 Tampa Bay Bucs has record for most consecutive losses at 26. As you can see earlier in this report, teams that lose the TO battle have very little chance of covering. Jacksonville is dead last in the NFL in TO margin (-2.7 TO’s per GAME!) and they are 0-3 ATS this season. A big red flag with this team is they scored 2 non-offensive TD’s each of the last 2 weeks and still didn’t cover. Teams that score a non-offensive TD historically are a strong bet to cover the game.
Colts – Indy was only team that had a +TO margin last week and lost and they were +3! Not only did they lose vs Tennessee, they lost 25-16 AND they were outgained by 1.1 YPP. Now they travel to Miami for their 2nd straight road game. Game time temps in Miami projected to be around 85 degrees with 70% humidity which would mean a heat index in the mid 90’s which could be tough for a Midwest team. After traveling to Miami this team then hits the road again going to Baltimore for their 3rd straight roadie. Tough situation for a team that is really banged up right now (2 starting offensive linemen potentially out, top WR out, and one of their top pass rushers possibly out) and already 0-3 on the season.
Chiefs – With Sunday’s ATS (and SU) loss vs the Chargers, the Chiefs are now 1-12-1 ATS their last 13 games dating back to last November. It was the 2nd straight season the Chiefs lost outright at home vs the Chargers as a favorite of -6.5 this year and -10 last season. The KC defense actually looked a bit better in the loss allowing LA to gain “only” 5.8 YPP after coming into the game giving up 7.6 YPP in their first 2 games (last in the NFL). They still rank last in the NFL after 3 games allowing 7.0 YPP. The offense turned the ball over on each of their first 3 possession last week leading to 2 quick Charger TD’s. 3 of KC’s 4 TO’s directly led to 21 of LA’s 30 points.
Broncos – How good is this Denver team? We’re just not sure yet. They are 3-0 with the best point differential in the NFL (+5) but they’ve also played Have played 3 teams this year that are a combined 0-9 SU (Jets, Jags, Giants). The defense has been great giving up a league low 26 points through 3 games along with ranking 2nd in the NFL in total defense and YPP allowed. The 3 offenses aren’t great to say the least with each ranking 24th or lower in scoring. Starting QB Bridgewater leads the NFL completing almost 77% of his pass attempts and he’s been an ATS monster covering 73% of his careers starts (38-14 ATS). Broncos are banged up on the OLine (2 starters left game last week and did not return) and at WR (Jeudy and Hamler out). We’ll find out more about this team on Sunday when they host Baltimore.
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