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NFC North Prediction | Bears Win Total

NFC NORTH Prediction – Chicago Bears UNDER 7.5 TOTAL WINS – By ASA

NFL WIN TOTAL – UNDER 7.5 WINS CHICAGO BEARS -122

The oddsmakers have set the Bears O/U win total at more than twice their number of wins from a season ago when they went 3-14. Has Chicago gotten that much better in the offseason? They lost ten straight games to close the season in 2022 and had the worst average margin of victory at minus -8.1PPG. Six of the Bears losses a season ago were by a touchdown or more. Chicago had a negative Yards Per Play differential at minus -0.8YPPL as they averaged 5.3YPPL but allowed 6.1YPPL. The Bears weren’t good on either side of the football with a defense that was 32nd in DVOA rankings and 25th in offensive DVOA. Chicago ranked 32nd defensively against the pass and 30th in stopping the run. Offensively it was only slightly better than defensively with the 30th ranked passing offense and the 25th rated rushing offense. Teams were able to sustain drives against the Bears as they were last in the NFL in 3rd down conversion defense allowing opponents to successfully convert 49.02% of their 3rd downs. Chicago QB Justin Fields was 15th in QBR last season and made more plays with his feet than his arm as he rushed over 1,143 yards last season which was 7th most in the NFL. The Bears were 30th in the league in passing yards per game at just 130.5. We can’t overlook the fact that the Bears play a soft schedule this season, but our expectations are the Packers and Vikings will be better than most experts anticipate. That means winning games in the NFC North Division will be tougher than expected. Our NFC North Predicted wins for Chicago is a max of 7 wins.

OTHER BETTING OPTIONS:

  • JUSTIN FIELDS – OVER 800.5 RUSHING YARDS -112 – You may want to shop for the best number on this O/U as we’ve seen totals as high as 825.5 rushing yards for Fields this season. Last season Fields rushed for over 1,100 yards and was 7th in the league in rushing yards. That’s not just QB’s either, but the entire league. To put that into perspective he had more rushing yards than: Christian McCaffrey, Aaron Jones, Najee Harris, Tony Pollard just to name a few marquee running backs in the NFL. Fields averaged 7.1-yards per rush and he’ll produce plenty of big plays with his feet again in 2023.

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NFC North Total win best bet – Bears

NFC NORTH TOTAL WIN BEST BET – Under 7.5 Chicago Bears

The QB situation in Chicago is not great.  Maybe worse than last season.  It looks like Andy Dalton will be the starter and he hasn’t had a winning record as a starter since 2015.  Justin Fields is waiting in the wings and while he has great potential, rookies usually struggle their first season.  On top of that their offensive line will be a liability and their WR’s after Allen Robinson are well below average.  Because of that they better be able to run the ball successfully after averaging only 99 YPG on the ground last year.  The Bears finished 23rd in the NFL in scoring last year and we look for their numbers on the offensive side of the ball to be worse in 2021.  So that means the defense better play outstanding in order for this team to get to a .500 type record.  Their pass defense was middle of the pack in most key categories and they lost their top cover CB Fuller.  The problem for them this year is they face a brutal schedule of QB’s.  Possibly the toughest in the NFL this year.  The face Rodgers (twice), Russell Wilson, Tom Brady, Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray, Matt Stafford, Derek Carr, and Ben Roethlisberger.  Their “easier” set of QB’s faced this upcoming season include Jared Goff (twice), Baker Mayfield, Joe Burrow, Jimmy Garoppolo, and Kirk Cousins (twice).  That’s as tough as it gets for a defense.  We have the Bears currently favored in only 4 of their 17 games this year.  In three of those games we have them favored by a FG or less.  Unless Fields drastically outplays our expectations in his first season, it’s going to be tough for Chicago to reach 8 wins this year and we like the Under.