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CFB FREE BET | Sept 7 2024 | From ASA

#348 ASA CFB FREE BET ON Ole Miss -41.5 over Middle Tennessee State, Saturday at 4:15 PM ET

CFB Free bet today from ASA. Ole Miss can name the score here and head coach Lane Kiffin has shown he’s not opposed to running up huge numbers on inferior opponents.  Last week the Rebels beat FCS Furman 76-0 and they took their foot slightly off the gas after leading 73-0 in the 3rd quarter. 

You might say well that’s Furman an FCS team but the Paladins have a very solid program and entered the year ranked in the top 15 in the FCS poll.  One trusted FBS / FCS power rating system, Jeff Sagarin, has Furman and this Middle Tennessee state team rated almost dead even.  The 76 point win wasn’t a turnover laced fluke as Furman had only 1 turnover in the game.  Ole Miss outgained the Paladins by a ridiculous +600 yards (772 to 172 total yards) and the Rebels had 37 first downs to just 7 for Furman. 

While Mississippi was destroying one of the better teams at the FCS level, MTSU was struggling at home to simply win a game vs one of the worst FCS programs, Tennessee Tech.  The Blue Raiders were outgained in that 32-25 win, had fewer first downs and needed a TD with under 1:00 minute remaining to escape with a home win as a 24 point favorite. 

Tennessee Tech finished 4-8 last year and hasn’t won more than 4 games in any of the last 4 seasons.  For comparisons sake, this same Tennessee Tech team who almost beat MTSU last Saturday, played Furman last year (Mississippi’s opponent last week) and lost 45-10. 

The Blue Raiders are lost a ton of players from last year (just 7 starters back) and are working on new systems on both sides of the ball with new head coach Derek Mason. 

Heading to Oxford is not ideal for this MTSU team still trying to figure things out.  Unless Lane Kiffin decides to take it easy here, which he hasn’t in the past, this one will get really ugly and we like the Rebels as a CFB free bet.

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Miami FL vs. Florida Preview | 8-31-24 | By ASA

The Miami Hurricanes will face off against the Florida Gators on Saturday, August 31, at 3:30 PM ET.

Miami enters the game as a 2.5-point favorite, with the over/under set at 54 points. In the 2023 season, Miami posted a 7-6 record straight up (SU) and 6-7 against the spread (ATS). As head coach Mario Cristobal begins his third year with the Hurricanes, he faces considerable pressure following a less-than-stellar 14-11 overall record in his first two seasons.

The team will debut new starting quarterback Cam Ward, a transfer from Washington State, where he threw for 3,700 yards and 25 touchdowns last year. Miami’s offensive line is largely intact, and last season the offense averaged 31.5 points per game (38th nationally) and 6.4 yards per play (24th nationally). However, only 43% of their total offensive yardage returns, ranking them 78th in the nation.

On defense, Miami allowed 335 yards per game, placing them 26th nationally, and 5.1 yards per play, ranking 36th. They were particularly strong against the run, giving up just 3.5 yards per carry, which was 20th in the nation. However, the team lost 8 of its top 11 tacklers and returns only 41% of last season’s total tackles, ranking 116th nationally. Historically, Miami has fared well against in-state rival Florida, with a 7-1-1 spread record in their last nine meetings since 1986.

The Florida Gators, on the other hand, finished the 2023 season with a 5-7 record SU and 4-8 ATS. Head coach Billy Napier is also under pressure as he begins his third year in Gainesville, with an 11-14 record over his first two seasons and no bowl appearance last year.

Florida returns 8 starters on offense, including quarterback Graham Mertz, who ranked third in the nation with a 73% completion rate. The Gators also bring back their top running back and 3 of their top 4 wide receivers.

Defensively, Florida returns several starters on the defensive line and in the secondary, but they struggled last season, allowing 6.4 yards per play, which ranked 124th nationally. The Gators face a tough challenge this season, as they play the most difficult strength of schedule in college football, with 8 of their opponents entering the season ranked in the top 25. Despite this, Florida has performed well as a home underdog, covering the spread in 5 of the 7 games since 2018.

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