Tag: best NFL picks

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NFL free bet Sunday | Cardinals vs Panthers Prediction | 12-22-24

NFL FREE BET – #109 ASA FREE PLAY ON Arizona Cardinals -4 over Carolina Panthers, Sunday at 1 PM ET

Carolina had played a few decent games in a row and had a chance to prove themselves last week as a small favorite vs a bad Dallas team playing their back up QB. 

That didn’t go as planned as the Cowboys dominated on the road with Dallas winning 30-14 and outgaining Carolina by +1.2 YPP.  It was a clean sweep for Dallas in the key stats as they outgained the Panthers YPP, YPC, and yards per pass attempt. 

Carolina’s 3 wins this year have come vs the Raiders, Giants, and Saints who have a combined record of 9-33 and 2 of those wins came by 3 points or less.  They’ve been non-competitive in a number of their losses this season as their 11 setbacks have come by an average of 16 points. 

Arizona is in a must win spot here if they want to keep their playoff hopes alive.  The Cards have played the most difficult strength of schedule in the NFL this year yet they still have a YPP margin of +0.3 (9th best in the NFL) while Carolina is -0.8 YPP on the season. 

The Cardinals love to run the ball and should have a huge advantage doing so as they average 141 YPG (7th in the NFL) and they are facing the worst rush defense in the league with the Panthers allowing 173 YPG rushing on 5.0 YPC. 

Carolina is getting outscored by an average of 10 PPG at home this season and we like Arizona to win this one by at least a TD.   

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NFL Free Pick | Jets vs Dolphins Prediction | Dec 8 2024

POINT TRAIN NFL FREE BET –OVER 44.5 @Miami Dolphins vs New York Jets – 1PM ET

  • There is a ton of UNDER tickets and money flowing in on this O-U number, yet the Books won’t budge off 44.5. That tells us all we need to know.
  • Miami’s offense was humming scoring with 23, 34 and 34-points in three straight games until they ran into the Packers on Thanksgiving Day in frigid temps/wind and only managed 17-points.
  • The Dolphins are averaging 5.8 yards per play in their last three games and continue to get better as Tua gets more comfortable with the offense after missing several games this season in concussion protocol.
  • Miami has a big advantage this week with their wideouts going up against a bunch of backup DB’s for the Jets. New York is prone to allowing big plays to opponents passing attacks at 10.1 yards/attempt.
  • The Jets defense has allowed 31,28 and 26 points in their last three games and 5.5 yards per play which is up from the 4.9 they allow for the season.
  • Of course, we will need the Jets to score here too, and they should after putting up 27 and 21 points the past two weeks.
  • NY is loaded offensively but haven’t put together that one break out game. With nothing left to play for they will throw caution to the wind and open up the playbook to try and play spoiler in this AFC East clash.

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Dallas Cowboys vs Pittsburgh Steelers Prediction | Oct 6th 2024

Cowboys vs Steelers Preview – Player Props

Game Preview:

  • Date: October 6, 2024
  • Time: 8:20 PM ET
  • Location: Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

Team Analysis:

  • Dallas Cowboys (2-2): Coming off a narrow victory against the New York Giants, the Cowboys are looking to solidify their standing in the NFC East. However, they face significant challenges with key defensive players out, including Micah Parsons and Demarcus Lawrence. This could severely hamper their ability to pressure Justin Fields, making their pass defense particularly vulnerable.
  • Pittsburgh Steelers (3-1): The Steelers are riding high with Justin Fields at quarterback, showing improvement over last year’s performance. Their defense, traditionally one of the league’s best, is expected to exploit the Cowboys’ weakened defensive line. However, their recent loss against the Colts might be a concern, showing they’re not invulnerable.

Key Betting Insights:

  • Spread: The Steelers are favored by 2.5 points at home, reflecting their solid start and the Cowboys’ injury woes. This line movement from an initial 1.5 points indicates growing confidence in Pittsburgh’s ability to cover against a decimated Cowboys defense.
  • Over/Under: Set at 44 points, the total reflects a game that might not see a high-scoring affair due to strong defensive play, especially from Pittsburgh, but with potential for the Steelers to exploit Dallas’s weakened defense.
  • Moneyline: Steelers are listed at -145 to win outright, showing a clear market preference for Pittsburgh, despite the public leaning towards Dallas in terms of bet volume.
  • Public Betting: Interestingly, while more bets are placed on the Cowboys to cover, the money is heavier on the Steelers, suggesting sharp bettors might see value in Pittsburgh covering or winning outright.

Trends and Predictions:

  • Cowboys: Their offense has been inconsistent, with Dak Prescott performing well but needing support from a struggling rushing game. The absence of key defensive players might force them to rely more on their passing game, which could be a problem versus this Steelers D that ranks 5th in completions allowed and 7th in completion percentage allowed.
  • Steelers: Justin Fields has been a revelation, with his dual-threat capabilities potentially exploiting the Cowboys’ defensive gaps. George Pickens has emerged as a primary receiver with 29 targets this season, and is in a in favorable matchups like this one, against a Cowboys defense that ranks 27 in yards/competion at 11.0.

Betting Picks – Player props:

Look at Justin Fields for over 186.5 passing yards if you believe he’ll have to throw more due to the Cowboys’ defensive adjustments. Fields has thrown fover over this number in his last two games against the Chargers and Colts with 245 and 312 passing yards. He attempted over 30 in both games indicating the coaching staff is gaining confidence in his throwing ability.

Steelers WR George Pickens could be a good bet for over his receiving yards (53.5), given his recent performance and the matchup. George Pickens has emerged as a primary receiver with 29 targets this season, and is in a in favorable matchups, against a Cowboys defense that ranks 27 in yards/competion at 11.0. Pickens is averaging 71 receiving yards per game.

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JAGUARS vs BILLS Preview | 9-23-24

Jaguars vs Bills preview

NFL Game Preview: Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Buffalo Bills – September 22, 2024

Game Overview Jaguars vs Bills preview: The Jacksonville Jaguars, currently at 0-2, are set to face off against the Buffalo Bills, who have started the season with a perfect 2-0 record. This Monday Night Football clash on September 22, 2024, at Highmark Stadium in Buffalo, presents a stark contrast in team momentum and expectations.

Team Analysis:

  • Jacksonville Jaguars: Coming off two consecutive losses, the Jaguars are in dire need of a victory to kickstart their season. Trevor Lawrence has been underwhelming, completing just over 50% of his passes with only one touchdown, indicating struggles in the passing game. However, the Jaguars have shown some promise in the run game, with notable performances by their running backs.
  • Buffalo Bills: The Bills have looked impressive, defeating their opponents convincingly. Josh Allen, despite the departure of Stefon Diggs, has managed the offense with poise, showcasing a balanced attack with both passing and running games. The defense has also stepped up, making Buffalo a formidable opponent at home.

Betting Odds: Jaguars vs Bills Preview

  • Spread: Bills -5.5
  • Moneyline: Bills -250, Jaguars +200
  • Over/Under: Set at 46, with the market showing a slight lean towards the under given the defensive performances, especially by Buffalo.

Injury Updates: From the information available, there haven’t been detailed reports directly from the game week, but general sentiment from posts and updates around the time suggests:

  • Bills: Concerns over how the offensive line might hold up, especially with mentions of backup tackles potentially playing, which could affect their run-first strategy against a struggling Jaguars offense.
  • Jaguars: No specific injury updates directly from the game week, but there’s an ongoing narrative around Trevor Lawrence needing to step up, which might imply pressure on him to perform regardless of physical condition.

Key Matchups to Watch:

  • Trevor Lawrence vs. Bills Defense: Lawrence needs to find his rhythm against a Bills defense that’s been effective at limiting big plays and quarterback mobility.
  • Bills’ Running Game vs. Jaguars’ Run Defense: If the Bills can establish their run game, it could dictate a game script where they control the clock, keeping the Jaguars’ offense off the field.

Predictions and Fan Sentiment: Fan sentiments and expert analyses seem to lean towards the Bills, citing their home advantage, offensive balance, and the Jaguars’ early season struggles. However, the Jaguars have historical success against Buffalo, which might give some hope to their supporters.

The game could very well hinge on whether the Jaguars can muster an offensive performance to upset the expectations or if the Bills continue their dominant start to the season, potentially covering the spread with a strong defensive showing.

Conclusion: This matchup is critical for the Jaguars to avoid falling into a 0-3 hole, while for the Bills, it’s another opportunity to solidify their position as AFC contenders. Betting markets and fan are showing a cautious optimism around the Bills, but underdogs in the NFL have the Books taking some buy back on the Jags.

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Commanders vs Bengals Preview | 9-23-24

CommandersvsBengals

Washington Commanders vs. Cincinnati Bengals Game Preview – Monday, September 23, 2024

Commanders vs Bengals Preview: The Washington Commanders, coming off a 1-1 start, face off against the Cincinnati Bengals, who are looking to avoid an 0-3 hole in the season. This Monday Night Football game promises intrigue as both teams seek to establish their identity in the early season.

Betting Odds:

  • Spread: Bengals -7.5
  • Over/Under: 47.5
  • Moneyline: Commanders +280, Bengals -350

Injury Updates:

  • Washington Commanders:
    • Clelin Ferrell (DE) is out with a knee injury, which might affect the defensive line rotation.
    • Emmanuel Forbes (CB) is questionable with a thumb injury, potentially impacting the secondary’s performance.
  • Cincinnati Bengals:
    • Ja’Marr Chase was questionable earlier but there’s sentiment suggesting he might return, though potentially not at full workload due to his previous status.
    • Tee Higgins Is expected to play but is dealing with a hamstring issue, which could limit his involvement or affect his performance if he plays.

Game Analysis:

  • Commanders’ Perspective: Under new management with Jayden Daniels at QB, the Commanders are looking to build on their offensive efficiency, ranking high in EPA/play and success rate. However, their road performance and the absence of Ferrell could put pressure on a young defense.
  • Bengals’ Perspective: Despite their 0-2 start, the Bengals showed signs of life in their loss against the Chiefs, with Joe Burrow attempting to rally the team. The return of key offensive players, even if not at 100%, could significantly boost their morale and on-field execution.
  • Key Matchups:
    • Commanders’ Offense vs. Bengals’ Defense: Can the Bengals’ defense, possibly missing key pieces, contain the Commanders’ dynamic run game and the emerging Daniels?
    • Bengals’ Offense vs. Commanders’ Defense: With Chase’s status uncertain and Higgins potentially limited, how will the Bengals’ passing game adapt against a Commanders defense that might be without Forbes?

Commanders vs Bengals preview Conclusion: This game could go either way, with the Bengals favored but not without their own set of challenges, particularly on the injury front. The Commanders, on an emotional high with their new quarterback, might just pull off an upset if they can keep the game low-scoring and capitalize on special teams or turnovers. For fans and bettors, this matchup offers a mix of strategic play and the unpredictability of early-season form, making it a must-watch for Monday Night Football.

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