By ASA – Green Bay Packers Total Win Prediction 2022 – OVER 10.5 WINS
Did you know Green Bay has the 2nd most overall victories at 782 in league history? The Packers are going to add to that win total this season with 11 or more wins. Scheduling has a lot to do with it as they play in a weak NFC North Division.
No other team in the NFC North had a winning record last season and only Minnesota has had a winning record in the past three years.
                             2021      2020      2019
Vikings                8-9         7-9         10-6
Bears                   6-11      8-8         8-8
Lions                    3-13-1  5-11      3-12
The Vikings and Bears have new coordinators in place and are completely changing their defensive schemes so expect slow starts for both. We do expect the Lions to be improved this season, but they are not a threat to Green Bay at the top of the Division.
Looking closer at those three other NFC North teams, none were in the top half of the league in overall (offensive/defensive) efficiency stats. The Packers were 8th overall in the NFL.
The Packers have won 13 games the previous three seasons with an average Margin of Victory at Plus +5.1PPG. Last year the Pack won 13 regular season games and the last game of the year versus Detroit was a meaningless loss.
Green Bay is nearly unbeatable at home with a 22-2 SU at home the previous three seasons so expect another 7 or 8 victories as the home team (one game against the Giants is in London).
Last season they owned a top 10 defense and expectations they’ll be better this year even with the loss of ZaDarius Smith (Vikings). The Packers drafted two Georgia (#1 in NCAA last year in D) defensive players (Walker, Wyatt) who expect to make an immediate impact.
The rushing offense was below or around league average in most key rushing categories, but it should be one of the better units in the NFL with Aaron Jones and AJ Dillion toting the football.
The Packers WR’s will be a question mark with the loss of Adams but they still have capable receivers in: Lazard, Cobb and Sammy Watkins. They drafted Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs, who has had outstanding preseason camp and is our longshot offensive rookie of the year bet at 100-1. The question we ask is this: Do the wide receivers need to great for Aaron Rodgers or does Rodgers throw those guys open? In the last three years Rodgers has 12,416 total passing yards, 111 TDs / 13 INT’s and a 72% completion percentage.
The Packers were underdogs just 4 times last season and won all 4. We have them favored in 14 of their games this season and would predict losses at Tampa Bay and Buffalo. Other than those two teams the Packers face a very winnable schedule which ranks 22nd in SOS this season.
We like Green Bay to win more than 11 games.
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