BEST NBA PREDICTIONS Archives

ASA play on: Atlanta Hawks -2 at Cleveland Cavaliers, Friday, 7:30PM ET

We are going to back the hotter team here and the Hawks. The Cavs were down by 20+ points a few times in their play-in game against the Nets before a late flurry made the final score respectable. Cleveland has struggled against the leagues better teams of late with losses to the Nets (twice), a home loss to Philly, an “L” at Atlanta, and two home loss to Dallas and Chicago. That’s 6 losses in their last ten games against other playoff teams. Atlanta can say the exact opposite as they’ve played extremely well down the stretch of the regular season with an 8-2 SU record in their last ten games. In that ten game stretch they have quality wins over Charlotte, the Nets, Cavs and Warriors. Prior to the All-Star break the Cavs were the 7th best defensive efficiency unit in the NBA allowing 1.097-points per possession. Since the break they rank 24th in the NBA allowing 1.173PPP, which is not a good sign facing a Hawks team that is 3rd in the NBA in offensive efficiency since the Break at 1.201PPP. Atlanta hasn’t been good defensively all season long but in their last five games they rank 11th in the league in DEFF. Based on how these teams are trending we have to back Atlanta minus the short number here.

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ASA play on: Minnesota Timberwolves -3 over Dallas Mavericks, 8PM ET

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These two teams just met in Dallas the other night with the Mavs winning 110-108 as a 1-point favorite. The natural swing of this line should have the Wolves favored by 5-points here so we’ll grab the value play with Minnesota. The Wolves shot just 40% in that game which is well below their 45.4% season average. Minnesota was just a 2-point home favorite against the Suns but lost their most recent game by 9-points. Dallas has been very good defensively on the season with the 4^th best defensive efficiency rating but rank 18^th in OEFF. In comparison, the T-Wolves are 6^th in OEFF, 11^th in DEFF. Minnesota is 24-13 SU at home this season with the 11^th best average +/- of +5.4PPG. The last meeting was chippy so expect a revenge minded Timberwolves team to get a big home win here.